Republicans gave Florida an extreme abortion ban; now it’s up to Republicans to take it away

Image via AP.

The vast majority of support for Amendment 4, this year’s ballot initiative seeking to enshrine abortion access protections into the state constitution, will come from Democrats. But if the amendment is successful, it will be Republicans who got it over the finish line.

It’s no secret that the abortion issue is deeply partisan. As a general rule, Democrats support access and Republicans don’t.

But there is also significant polling — even from before the Florida amendment made the ballot — showing that most Americans think women should have at least some access to safe, legal abortions. This year, according to Pew Research Center data, 57% of Republican or Republican-leaning Americans believe that abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. But — and this is the important number for the Florida initiative — 41% believe it should be legal in all or most cases.

The most recent polling on the initiative, by Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab, shows the amendment just shy of passing, but with more than enough undecided voters to get it over the hump.

Critically, Florida requires a 60% threshold for constitutional amendments to pass, which means Democrats supporting Amendment 4 must reach across the aisle for Republican support, and get significant backing from unaffiliated voters.

The poll showed 58% support among likely Florida voters, just shy of that crucial benchmark. But 11% of voters say they are still undecided.

Some Republicans are heeding the call, taking a potentially risky public position in support of Amendment 4.

These brave GOP officials include Rep. Jim Mooney, a Republican representing Islamorada and Rep. Vicki Lopez, who represents Miami.

Sen. Corey Simon of Tallahassee has spoken out against Florida’s six-week ban and was one of two Republicans to vote against it. He still plans to vote against Amendment 4, but his opposition to the restrictive ban as “too far” may add to the weight of other Republicans pushing for passage.

Lopez said on a recent podcast interview that the Legislature has “left us no choice,” referring to the state’s current six-week abortion ban, one of the most restrictive in the nation.

And there’s one Florida man who could really make a difference in Amendment 4’s outcome — Donald Trump.

The former President in late August said the current ban was too restrictive and, while he didn’t say so explicitly, suggested he would vote in favor of Amendment 4.

Supporters of the initiative see these standouts as a huge win for the campaign, offering conservative voters trained to oppose abortion permission to vote “yes.”

And for those still concerned about running afoul of the party platform or angering loved ones who oppose abortion, there is another movement afoot.

A group of conservative women in Manatee County are crossing the aisle to support Amendment 4, and they are asking others to do the same. Widely reported on both local and national outlets, including The Wall Street Journal and POLITICO, the group of women don’t intend to necessarily buck their party on other issues or candidates. But on this one, there is some consensus, even if it’s reluctant.

For example, POLITICO’s report on the meetings didn’t use full names for most women in attendance. They asked for that concession out of fear of retribution from their party, friends or loved ones.

But these hushed gatherings, steeped in at least some anonymity, could make all the difference in the Amendment 4 battle. It’s similar to an effort underway throughout the nation to give women permission to vote blue. The movement includes mostly women placing Post-it notes in women’s bathrooms reminding women that their vote is private, so they are free to vote for Kamala Harris.

Some are going so far as placing the notes in men’s bathrooms at truck stops.

Whether these efforts are ultimately successful won’t be known until after votes are counted Tuesday. But one thing is certain: Democrats need Republicans on this issue. Without them, Florida will remain among the toughest states for women seeking abortion care.