Peter Schorsch
The vast majority of support for Amendment 4, this year’s ballot initiative seeking to enshrine abortion access protections into the state constitution, will come from Democrats. But if the amendment is successful, it will be Republicans who got it over the finish line.
It’s no secret that the abortion issue is deeply partisan. As a general rule, Democrats support access and Republicans don’t.
But there is also significant polling — even from before the Florida amendment made the ballot — showing that most Americans think women should have at least some access to safe, legal abortions. This year, according to Pew Research Center data, 57% of Republican or Republican-leaning Americans believe that abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. But — and this is the important number for the Florida initiative — 41% believe it should be legal in all or most cases.
The most recent polling on the initiative, by Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab, shows the amendment just shy of passing, but with more than enough undecided voters to get it over the hump.
Critically, Florida requires a 60% threshold for constitutional amendments to pass, which means Democrats supporting Amendment 4 must reach across the aisle for Republican support, and get significant backing from unaffiliated voters.
The poll showed 58% support among likely Florida voters, just shy of that crucial benchmark. But 11% of voters say they are still undecided.
Some Republicans are heeding the call, taking a potentially risky public position in support of Amendment 4.
These brave GOP officials include Rep. Jim Mooney, a Republican representing Islamorada and Rep. Vicki Lopez, who represents Miami.
Sen. Corey Simon of Tallahassee has spoken out against Florida’s six-week ban and was one of two Republicans to vote against it. He still plans to vote against Amendment 4, but his opposition to the restrictive ban as “too far” may add to the weight of other Republicans pushing for passage.
Lopez said on a recent podcast interview that the Legislature has “left us no choice,” referring to the state’s current six-week abortion ban, one of the most restrictive in the nation.
And there’s one Florida man who could really make a difference in Amendment 4’s outcome — Donald Trump.
The former President in late August said the current ban was too restrictive and, while he didn’t say so explicitly, suggested he would vote in favor of Amendment 4.
Supporters of the initiative see these standouts as a huge win for the campaign, offering conservative voters trained to oppose abortion permission to vote “yes.”
And for those still concerned about running afoul of the party platform or angering loved ones who oppose abortion, there is another movement afoot.
A group of conservative women in Manatee County are crossing the aisle to support Amendment 4, and they are asking others to do the same. Widely reported on both local and national outlets, including The Wall Street Journal and POLITICO, the group of women don’t intend to necessarily buck their party on other issues or candidates. But on this one, there is some consensus, even if it’s reluctant.
For example, POLITICO’s report on the meetings didn’t use full names for most women in attendance. They asked for that concession out of fear of retribution from their party, friends or loved ones.
But these hushed gatherings, steeped in at least some anonymity, could make all the difference in the Amendment 4 battle. It’s similar to an effort underway throughout the nation to give women permission to vote blue. The movement includes mostly women placing Post-it notes in women’s bathrooms reminding women that their vote is private, so they are free to vote for Kamala Harris.
Some are going so far as placing the notes in men’s bathrooms at truck stops.
Whether these efforts are ultimately successful won’t be known until after votes are counted Tuesday. But one thing is certain: Democrats need Republicans on this issue. Without them, Florida will remain among the toughest states for women seeking abortion care.
10 comments
Dont Say FLA
November 1, 2024 at 11:27 am
We need to get our Government back out of our private healthcare decisions.
If it had worked well having government in there deciding for us, Roe V Wade would never have become the law of the land.
Obviously a lot of people forgot why Roe V Wade became the law of the land, and then a tiny number of very certain people who wear robes, they pretended they forgot too.
And then one guy even bragged about all the forgetting and all his own ignorance. And now he even says that’s that, whether you like it or not.
Rita Joseph
November 1, 2024 at 7:40 pm
Roe v. Wade “became the law” only because we were fooled by a new radical feminist pro-abortion ideology insisting that a pregnant mother’s unborn little one can be ‘blamed’ for “invading” her bodily integrity and requires her mother’s permission to continue “occupation” until birth.
Natural maternal moral obligations were dismissed as tyrannical. Natural maternal duty of care was ideologically reconstructed as a ‘choice’.
Yet the truth is that a tiny daughter cosseted in her mother’s womb is exercising no sinister force against her mother and enacting no violence against her mother’s integrity.
The purpose of such claims was to misrepresent pregnancy as an unjust imposition that can be alleviated only by ‘legal abortion services’ that offer each mother the ‘choice’ to have her unborn child exterminated.
Michael K
November 1, 2024 at 11:40 am
It’s all about power and control. And for Floridians, two men completely own the decisions that have stripped women of their basic freedom. Both will soon be held accountable for their overreach and the damage they have inflicted on our state and nation.
It’s not just women – men who respect and love women will also carry this over the line. And we need to remember this: The governor will no doubt try to overturn the people’s will. Again.
PeterH
November 1, 2024 at 11:54 am
Could it be that Florida Republicans are voting for Harris? There are more women in Florida!
Hung Wiil
November 1, 2024 at 12:19 pm
No, Peter. You are wrong again. Rick Scott will win re-election and Amendment 4, abortion on demand until the 9th month, will be defeated. Suck on that, tool. See you in four days, right back here, where I will graciously accept your apology for being an ignorant f.
Cheesy Floridian
November 1, 2024 at 4:49 pm
You didn’t read the amendment did you or Florida Statutes. Rick Scott MIGHT win we shall see.
Rita Joseph
November 1, 2024 at 4:29 pm
No ballot results can set aside the US Constitution’s founding principle that forbids the deliberate killing of our fellow human beings.
Both science and reason tell us that our unborn children are fellow human beings, smaller than us but already belonging to our human family. Once conceived, each new human being is already one of us—the very same human being from conception to natural death—unique, lovable, always deserving of our protection.
The Founders recognized the “self-evident” truth that, for all human beings created equal, their right to life is the unalienable gift of “their Creator.”
Before the U.S. Constitution was written, it was first recognized in the Declaration of Independence that for every human being, the right to life is unalienable. This, the first and most fundamental right and obligation, goes on existing independent of any subsequent consensus measured in ballots or votes.
The Declaration’s right to Life was never predicated on a human being’s size or age or stage of growth. There are some principles that no democratic vote may revoke — such as “the natural rights of the infant in the womb” affirmed by Founder James Wilson, way back in 1790 in his lectures, Of the Natural Rights of Individuals.
PeterH
November 1, 2024 at 5:24 pm
Complete nonsense! A fetus is not a human being. Never has been and never will be!
Cheesy Floridian
November 1, 2024 at 4:50 pm
The date you are born into this world and not the date you are conceived is what is placed on the headstone that goes on peoples graves. So you recieve rights when you are born and breath and are alive outside of the womb.
Cheesy Floridian
November 1, 2024 at 4:54 pm
If you value freedom and the choice, vote yes on 4. For Life, fo
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