Staff Reports
Good Sunday morning and welcome back to “Brunch,” a pop-up newsletter about the 2024 campaign cycle in Florida. This is the final edition of Brunch for the 2024 Election cycle.
How about that poll of Iowa? Harbinger, irrelevant or outlier?
How about Jason Kelce? Is he the hero America has been looking for? Or will exchanging that homophobic slur get him in trouble?
Oh, and did you remember to set your clocks back?
As always, thank you to this project’s sponsors, Jeff Johnston and Amanda Stewart. Their underwriting puts me in a position to give some extra money to the state’s hardest-working reporters. We are very grateful.
I am also grateful to Ryan Nicol, who helms this project; contributors Jacob Ogles and Janelle Taylor; Rochelle Koff, who writes about dining out; and Cole Pepper, who handles our sports coverage. As with all our other newsletters, Phil Ammann and Daniel Dean make them look good.
Happy birthday to Rep. Susan Valdes, former Rep. Delores Hogan Johnson, Clay Barker, former UF President Ken Fuchs, Nicole Kelly of The Southern Group, Capital City Consulting’s Kenny Granger and former Sen. Jack Latvala.
Also, please check out our choices for Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics by clicking here.
Now, please enjoy Brunch!
— Spectrum News election coverage —
Tuesday is the big day, and Spectrum News has comprehensive coverage of election results as soon as tallies start coming in.
— The lead-up: On Monday at 7 p.m., Spectrum will air a one-hour Political Connections with Spectrum Bay News 9 anchor Holly Gregory and Spectrum News 13 anchor Ybeth Bruzual previewing the election.
— The big show: Live continuous coverage of election results begins at 7 p.m. Spectrum Bay News 9 airs on channel 9 in Tampa Bay, while Spectrum News 13 is on channel 13 in Central Florida. Viewers can also tune into the Spectrum News App on mobile, Xumo Stream Box, Roku and Apple devices. National coverage from Spectrum News+ is also available on the Spectrum News App and Xumo Play. C-Span will also air Spectrum News+ reporting.
— Tampa team: Anchors Holly, Rick Elmhorst and Jeff Butera will have coverage of local and state races. Former Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn and Hillsborough County Republican State Committeewoman April Schiff will also join the coverage for analysis.
— Spectrum News 13: Anchors Bruzual, Greg Angel and Tammie Fields will lead Central Florida coverage, with former Rep. Dick Batchelor and former Orange County Clerk of Court Eddie Fernandez.
— GOP grows early vote edge —
Florida Republicans are padding their lead in early voting, thanks to solid turnout in-person at sites throughout the state.
— Overall numbers: As of Saturday afternoon, Florida voters have already cast nearly 7.7 million early votes — about 55% of registered voters. And Republicans lead Democrats, with almost 3.4 million GOP votes to just over 2.5 million for Democrats. Nearly 1.8 million more third-party and no-party voters had cast their ballots.
— Showing up: Republicans dominate the early, in-person vote, with more than 2.4 million votes cast compared to just over 1.35 million for Democrats. That’s an advantage of more than 1 million votes.
— Mailing it in: Democrats have a 181,000-ballot edge in mail-in voting (nearly 1.16 million to 974,000), but that’s not enough to make up the GOP’s in-person lead.
— Still to go: Republicans have over 2.1 million voters who still haven’t cast ballots. That number is just over 1.9 million for Democrats. But more than 2.2 million third-party and no-party voters still haven’t appeared. Democrats need to hope that group breaks their way.
— Florida betting on Trump —
Online gambling is becoming increasingly available nationwide, and you can bet Americans are putting their money down on who they think will win the election.
— Florida’s feel: So, who do Floridians think will win? They are betting on the candidate who has made Mar-a-Lago his adopted home. Around 61% of money bet on the election is in favor of Donald Trump in Florida.
— Data details: The data comes from a roundup by www.betonline.ag, a sportsbook that offers lines on political and sporting events.
— Swing state revelations: While the Sunshine State is firmly behind Trump, that’s not true in the seven states analysts say are most likely to swing the election. Indeed, bettors are putting more money on Kamala Harris in six of those seven states: Wisconsin (63% for Harris), Arizona (61%), Nevada (59%), Georgia (56%), North Carolina (56%) and Michigan (56%). Only bettors in Pennsylvania (61%) favor Trump.
— MAGA-mentum? —
Trump’s campaign might be optimistic heading into Election Day if an internal analysis of polls this year compared to four years ago is any indication. Looking at the RealClearPolitics average of polls five days out from the election this year, compared to the average of polls at the same point in the 2020 Presidential Election, Trump is performing nearly 8 percentage points better now than he was then and has a net positive in all seven swing states.
— Arizona is looking good: Of all the swing states, Arizona is looking the best for Trump this year, with the average of polls showing him up over Harris by 2.5 percentage points. That’s a movement of 2.5 points compared to four years ago, as polls last election had Trump and now-President Joe Biden tied. Biden went on to win Arizona that year.
— Michigan and Wisconsin are trouble spots: While Trump has seen movement his way in Michigan and Wisconsin compared to four years ago — at a staggering 7.8 percentage points in Michigan and 6.5 in Wisconsin — he’s still trailing Harris this year. But Trump’s deficit for 2024 is only two-tenths of a percentage point in Wisconsin and four-tenths of a point in Michigan, significantly better than four years ago when he was trailing in polls by 8.2 points in Michigan and 6.7 in Wisconsin.
— Georgia on Trump’s mind: In 2020, when Trump famously lost Georgia by a narrow margin, he trailed in polls five days before Election Day by four-tenths of a point. Now, he’s leading by 2.4 points, a net improvement of 2.8 points that, if it holds, would spell victory in the Peach State.
— The other swing states: Trump is up in polls in North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, all by one percentage point or less. But he was in the negative in those states four years ago, signs of progress for the former President.
The Trump campaign analysis also includes electoral votes. In 2020, not counting states leading one way or another, Biden controlled 310 electoral votes compared to Trump’s 217, based on the average of polling five days from the Election. Harris’ advantage is down to 251 electoral votes this year, while Trump’s is 287.
— Souls to the Polls —
Democrats are making a final push to ramp up get-out-the-vote operations with several Souls to the Polls sprinkled throughout the state.
— North Florida heavy: Democrats are hosting events in Leon (11 a.m.), Duval (noon) and Alachua (2 p.m.) counties on Sunday. Those locations are likely less about contested federal races there and more about local contests and the abundance of young voters. Leon is home to Florida State University, while Alachua houses the University of Florida. And Jacksonville, one of Florida’s largest metro areas, is located in Duval.
— Other events: Democrats will also be hosting efforts in Hillsborough County (12:30 p.m.), home to Tampa, and Miami-Dade County (1 p.m.). Those two major metro areas have historically been points of strength for Democrats, though Republicans have made significant progress in Miami-Dade in recent years, with Gov. Ron DeSantis even winning the county outright in 2022.
Those Sunday events follow a Palm Beach County Souls to the Polls event hosted Saturday, as the early voting period ends in Florida this weekend.
— The Closer —
Former President Bill Clinton swings by Florida on Sunday to make a closing pitch to voters ahead of Election Day.
— GOTV: The former two-term President is appearing in Orlando on Sunday for an event starting at noon, hoping to motivate Floridians to show up at the polls and vote for the Harris-Tim Walz ticket.
— Couple goals: His visit comes just one day after former First Lady and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke at an event in Tampa as part of a book tour, where she also stumped on behalf of the Democratic ticket.
— Is it enough? Democrats don’t seem to take the state seriously regarding the presidential race. However, national party members hope an upset in the U.S. Senate races here or in Texas could offset Democratic losses elsewhere. Nevertheless, neither Harris nor Walz appeared in Florida as members of the presidential ticket. Still, stand-ins like the Clintons show they haven’t completely abandoned the party in other races down the ballot.
— Party preferences —
Yes, there’s plenty of polling on who and what members of respective parties vote for, but what about how?
— Early birds: Voting early and in-person is the most popular form of voting for either party among Floridians, according to poll results from the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab and Mainstreet Research USA. A plurality of Democrats (49%) told pollsters that it’s their preferred method, while 55% of Republicans said the same.
— Cross-party contrast: The differences between the parties stand out more when looking at other types of voting. About 40% of Democrats prefer voting by mail, less than 9 points shy of those who prefer early, in-person voting. However, only 19.5% of Republicans say they vote by mail. By contrast, 23% of Republicans prefer voting on Election Day, while less than 9% of Democrats say the same.
— What say independents? Independents have a more balanced split, with 43% favoring early, in-person voting, 29% preferring mail ballots and 20% intending to vote on Election Day. They’re also more undecided, with nearly 8% saying they don’t know how they will vote. Just 2% of Republicans and 1.5% of Democrats were unsure of their favorite voting method when asked by pollsters.
— Stress test —
One thing about this election is that it’s been relatively carefree, with both sides demonstrating they’ll be perfectly content with their lives and the state of the country no matter the result.
Just kidding; polling shows we are all stressed out to some degree.
— The numbers: A recently released survey shows that around 2 in 3 U.S. voters say the election serves as at least a “minor source of stress,” with 20% saying it is a “significant source of stress.” Those numbers have remained consistent throughout the year, with 16% of Americans reporting losing sleep over politics in the past month and 27% saying politics has “caused conflict between themselves and friends/family members.”
— The pollsters: This survey was conducted by University of South Florida (USF) researchers in a survey sponsored by Cyber Florida at USF. It’s the fourth quarterly survey conducted by USF this year.
Take a deep breath. It will all be over soon.
— NPA on the rise —
No-party voters have been getting more and more impactful in elections over the past several cycles. A new report finds it especially true in Presidential Elections and high-profile battleground races.
— “The Changing Face of Florida”: The report finds that Florida, once a top battleground state but now firmly in the red column, is home to more than 3.5 million no-party voters, representing more than a quarter of the overall Florida electorate. The Sachs Media Breakthrough Research division report finds that the group has seen a staggering tenfold increase since the early 1980s.
— Key findings: More than half of no-party voters are younger than 45, while nearly a quarter are Hispanic. And most, 63%, weren’t always unaffiliated with a party. They shed their political loyalty later. That’s less true for younger non-party voters, though. Among those younger than 45, about half registered initially without political affiliation.
— Being with a party is no party: Nearly three-quarters of no-party voters (73%) don’t like either major political party. It’s more than disillusionment. They think both the Republican and Democratic parties are corrupt. Further, about 70% believe their former party strayed too far from its values.
— Don’t count ‘em out: The report found that no-party voters are an increasing force in Florida elections, where unaffiliated voters can now be a deciding factor in statewide races won by razor-thin margins.
— Issues, not party loyalty: No-party voters are overwhelmingly committed to specific issues, not party issues. They don’t necessarily lean right or left, with 74% supporting efforts to legalize cannabis for adult use but 59% rejecting the idea that the government should provide universal health care. Democrats are largely supportive of the former, while the latter views tend to align more with Republican voters.
— Loud and proud: No-party voters are highly active on social media, with 84% reporting using Facebook or YouTube at least weekly. That’s important information for campaigns trying to reach these voters, showing that a digital strategy is critical to engaging them.
“The rise of NPA voters represents a significant shift in Florida’s political identity,” Sachs Media Partner and Director of Research Karen Cyphers said. “As more voters choose not to affiliate with a major party, political campaigns and professional communicators need to adapt to meet the diverse priorities of this key demographic. These nonpartisans are shaping the future of electoral politics, through the votes they cast and as well as through the primary election votes they’re ineligible to cast — and everyone should be paying attention.”
— Money race —
It’s the final stretch in Florida’s most competitive legislative contests. Here is the final Brunch rundown of who raised the most money in critical races and how much they have left. Totals combine candidate accounts and the entire take for the candidates’ respective political committees based on the most recent available reports
— SD 3: Sen. Corey Simon, a Republican, raised nearly $2.87 million and still had about $1.04 million on hand. Democrat Daryl Parks raised about $2.3 million and still had over $126,000 remaining.
— SD 25: Democratic Rep. Kristen Arrington brought in more than $906,000 for the open seat and had more than $57,000. Republican Jose Martinez raised more than $184,000 and had upward of $85,000.
— HD 9: Rep. Allison Tant, a Democrat, collected over $1.15 million and had over $96,000. Republican Spencer Brass hauled in more than $157,000 and retained $121,000.
— HD 35: Rep. Tom Keen, a Democrat, collected more than $260,000 and reported about $16,000 in the bank. Republican Erika Booth brought in more than $176,000 and had almost $80,000.
— HD 36: Rep. Rachel Plakon, a Republican, reported more than $363,000 raised, with $185,000 remaining. Democrat Kelley Diona Miller raised about $37,000 and had $17,000 remaining.
— HD 37: Rep. Susan Plasencia, a Republican, hauled in over $232,000 and had over $78,000. Democrat Nate Douglas collected more than $405,000 and had $205,000 in the bank.
— HD 38: Rep. David Smith, a Republican, brought in about $938,000 and reported almost $163,000 left. Democrat Sarah Henry raised over $483,000 and still had about $18,000.
— HD 39: Rep. Doug Bankson, a Republican, reported more than $22,000 raised and still had over $112,000. Republican Marsha Summersill collected over $33,000 and had about $13,000 on hand.
— HD 45: Rep. Carolina Amesty, a Republican, raised over $490,000 and had $36,000 in the bank. Democrat Leonard Spencer reported about $151,000 in total and had over $42,000 on hand.
— HD 47: Rep. Paula Stark, a Republican, collected about $168,000 and had $34,000 in the bank. Democrat Maria Revelles reported about $153,000 in total donations, with almost $34,000 left.
— HD 60: Rep. Lindsay Cross, a Democrat, collected about $1.15 million and had about $92,000 left. Republican Ed Montanari raised $361,000 and had almost $36,000 on hand.
— HD 91: Rep. Peggy Gossett-Seidman, a Republican, raised over $250,000 and had about $41,000 in the bank. Democrat Jay Shooster raised about $1.13 million and still had more than $123,000 to spend.
— HD 93: Rep. Katherine Waldron, a Democrat, collected about $321,000 and retained about $72,000. Republican Anne Gerwig raised over $163,000 and had more than $75,000 remaining.
— HD 106: Rep. Fabián Basabe, a Republican, collected more than $406,000, with about $258,000 remaining. Democrat Joe Saunders raised about $512,000 and had $138,000 in the bank.
— HD 113: Rep. Vicki Lopez, a Republican, raised more than $1.11 million with about $147,000 on hand. Democrat Jackie Gross-Kellogg collected more than $57,000 and had more than $8,000 left to spend.
— A blockbuster endorsement —
The auteur behind the blockbuster “Bad Boys” franchise and satirical “Pain & Gain” movie, all set in Miami, weighs in on the Miami-Dade County Sheriff’s race.
— Lights: Director-producer Michael Bay is backing Republican Assistant Miami-Dade Police Director Rosie Cordero-Stutz. She faces Democratic Chief of Public Safety James Reyes for the returning Sheriff job.
— Camera: Donning a Miami Police hat, Bay recorded himself this week endorsing Cordero-Stutz, who also carries support from Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis. Her campaign then posted the video to Instagram.
— Action! “This is a serious message. As a Miami resident, I want you all to vote for Rosie,” Bay says in the video. “I know police and she’s great.”
— Pan right: Bay, registered to vote without party affiliation, has described himself as “a political person” who doesn’t “Feel the need to go out and tell people what to believe politically.” Many of his films still present themes and imagery appealing to conservative and libertarian ideals.
— Pan left: And he’s been more politically vocal this cycle. In May, he recorded a video later posted to X urging state and local policymakers to do more to incentivize film production in the Magic City.
Miami-Dade voters are electing their first Sheriff since 1966 when the position was abolished amid rampant corruption within the Office. Florida voters approved a 2018 ballot measure requiring all counties to have a Sheriff by January.
— Jaguars, Pederson, back in Philly —
For the second time in three seasons, Doug Pederson coaches the Jaguars against his former team as Jacksonville travels to Philadelphia to face the Eagles (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS).
— Philly past: Pederson guided the Eagles to win the Super Bowl after the 2017 season over the New England Patriots. The team erected a statue in his honor outside Lincoln Financial Field.
— Bad memories: In 2022, Pederson’s first season as the head coach of the Jaguars, Philadelphia beat Jacksonville 29-21 on a rainy afternoon that saw Trevor Lawrence lose four fumbles. The Jaguars would end up making the playoffs that season.
— Can’t close the deal: This season does not look as rosy for Jacksonville (2-6). Coming off a 30-27 home loss to the Green Bay Packers, the Jaguars continue to find new ways to lose close games. Four of the team’s six losses have come by 5 points or less.
— Fire sale? This week, the team traded away a veteran player for the second time this season. Left tackle Cam Robinson was sent to Minnesota in exchange for a draft pick. Earlier, defensive lineman Roy Robertson-Harris was traded to Seattle for a draft pick. It seems that the roster purge is well underway.
— Philly flying: The Eagles (5-2) are in the thick of a playoff chase, trailing the Washington Commanders by half a game in the NFC East. Philadelphia has won three straight games, including last week’s 31-17 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals.
— Dolphins look to end skid vs. Bills —
The Miami Dolphins will look to end a losing streak when they travel to Buffalo to face the Bills (1 p.m. ET, CBS).
— Dolphins doldrums: Since opening the season with a come-from-behind win over Jacksonville, the Dolphins (2-5) have lost five of six games, including the first meeting of the year with Buffalo. The game on Sept. 12, a 31-10 Bills win, saw Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa leave with a concussion.
— Heartbreaker: Tagovailoa returned to the lineup last week and passed for 234 yards and a touchdown in a 28-27 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. The Dolphins led 27-18 in the fourth quarter before surrendering a touchdown and then a game-winning field goal with no time on the clock.
— Tall task: Buffalo (6-2) has dominated the series lately with the Bills winning 13 of the last 14 between the rivals. The Bills lead the AFC East and are tied with Houston and Pittsburgh with the second-best record in the conference. The Bills have won three straight, including last week’s 31-10 victory over the Seahawks in Seattle.
— QB conundrum: After the Dolphins signed Tagovailoa to one of the largest contracts in NFL history this Summer, a four-year deal with an average annual salary of $53.1 million, Tagovailoa sustained his third concussion. He said last week that he would not wear a protective Guardian cap over his helmet, even though they are now allowed by NFL rules.
— FSU volleyball on national stage —
Florida State volleyball will host No. 5 Stanford on Sunday in a matchup that will be broadcast nationally (1 p.m. ET, ESPN).
— New rivalry: The Seminoles (15-5, 7-3 ACC) face Stanford for the first time as a conference opponent after Stanford, Cal and SMU joined the Atlantic Coast Conference this Summer.
— Can FSU make history? Florida State has never beaten a Top 5 team in front of their home crowd. Should FSU beat Stanford (16-3, 8-2), it would be the second-highest-ranked team FSU has ever beaten. FSU defeated then-No. 3 Minnesota in 2019.
— The matchup: The two programs met just one other time in volleyball, at a Sweet Sixteen meeting in 2016. FSU is led by Audrey Koenig, whose 267 kills are the most by a Seminole this season. The senior was the ACC Co-Player of the Year last season. Stanford’s Elia Rubin leads the Cardinals with 234 kills. The team won conference championships in the past two seasons in the Pac-12.
— Brunching out —
You might know Jeri’s from the restaurant’s former Midtown location. But now, owner Jeri Desloge serves her flavorful breakfast/brunch/lunch fare with the same “love on a plate” concept at Jeri’s at Market Plaza in the Northeast.
— Backstory: A Tallahassee native, Desloge opened her Market Plaza destination in the former home of Grove Market Café last year.
— Setting: The setting is cheery and colorful, especially with its bold paintings of flowers and animals. It’s the perfect weather for enjoying Brunch on the covered outdoor patio.
— The menu: Breakfast, brunch and lunch are available six days a week. Among the highlights: classic French toast, made with thick-cut challah and topped with syrup, blueberries, strawberries and a dollop of whipped cream. The Kenny Benny is a version of eggs Benedict with bacon and Roma tomatoes. A friend raved about the “Build Your Own Bangin’ Omelette,” which he ordered with sautéed mushrooms, onions and white cheddar cheese. There’s a variety of sides, including lobster bisque, pasta salad and sautéed potatoes with onions and peppers. Lunch adds pressed sandwiches, salads and a couple of entrées.
— Beverages: Jeri’s offers hot tea and several coffee options, such as a cappuccino, hot chocolate and a friend’s Red Velvet latte (which she raved about). For more spirited stuff, there’s a Mimosa-style Sake Sunrise, made with orange juice and grenadine, a Sake Mary and Tipsy Lemonade.
— Details: Jeri’s is at 1370 Market St.; 850-756-7660. Hours: 7 a.m. to 3 p.m. Tuesday to Friday; 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. Saturday; 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. Sunday. Closed Monday. The place gets packed at prime weekend times so reservations are suggested. You can now place orders for prepared Thanksgiving sides, available for pick up on Nov. 27.
— Brunching out, part deux —
If you were visiting New Orleans, there’s a good chance you’d start your day at Café Du Monde. It’s likely impossible to clone that French Quarter experience but Tallahassee can now offer a taste of the Big Easy: Beignets & Brew.
— Backstory: The franchise was launched in Destin in 2023. Its first Capital City site is in the former home of Takko Korean Taqueria in Market Square. The other two locations are in Peachtree, Georgia, and Huntsville, Alabama. Another dozen sites are on the books, with a second Tallahassee spot set for West Tennessee Street in January.
— Setting: The place is a sweet confection, decorated in cotton candy pink, with charming retro café tables and chairs. There’s a bar for dessert cocktails that opens to the covered patio.
— The menu: Beignets are square puffs of pastry typically covered in powdered sugar. A tip: Don’t wear black when you’re eating one. Beignets & Brews has these traditional beignets along with other flavors such as s’more beignets (if you really want something sweet) and “Cinna-Swirl.” You can add dipping sauces such as buttercream, blueberry and chocolate.
— Beverages: The Cinna-toast Crunch Latte is sinfully good. You’ll find New Orleans-style chicory coffee or regular coffee, espresso drinks and specialties such as the Biscoff Cookie Butter Latte and the Nutella Latte. The bar offers mimosas, wine and dessert cocktails including a chocolate martini (of course), spiked hot chocolate and B&B espresso martini.
— Details: Beignets & Brews is at 1415 Timberlane Rd.; 850-597-7163. Hours are 6:30 a.m. to 10 p.m. daily.
