Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics — Week of 11.3.24

Mr. Trump is going to Washington. Again.

Donald Trump completed the most unlikely political comeback ever by winning a second term Tuesday night, sweeping all seven swing states and even delivering Republicans only their second popular vote win since 1988.

So many factors played into Trump’s 2016 win, which was far narrower than his victory this time around, and raised questions about just how strong his mandate was. This year’s result was, unquestionably, a mandate for his governing vision.

Trump will now reenter the White House with Republicans holding a majority in the Senate and likely a narrow majority in the House. With the GOP appearing to move in lockstep with the President-elect, Trump has a unique opportunity to fully enact his agenda.

Already, some Democratic leaders are gearing up #resistance efforts before the vote has even been certified. But if this country is ever going to emerge from the hate-filled, partisan doom spiral we are on, one side or the other is going to need to put down the pitchforks and at least attempt to work with the other side after a big election win.

We say that not naïvely, and not as unabashed Trump boosters. We know he has missed chance after chance to “act presidential” (a reality many of his supporters see as a positive). And we have been openly critical of his rhetoric and proposals when warranted.

But a majority of Americans who voted in this election did not share those concerns.

So this is an opportunity to work together going forward, within reason, so that the Trump administration can secure successes for the many Americans who feel left behind. Now is not the time to block a potentially beneficial piece of the Trump agenda just to deny your political rival a win, a strategy both parties have employed over the years to the detriment of Americans wanting help.

This effort is, of course, not a one-way street for Democrats. Just like we would encourage Democrats to at least entertain the idea that Trump will govern with the best interests of Americans in mind, Trump too needs to distance himself from some of his most divisive rhetoric on the campaign trail.

Even Trump allies like Joe Rogan, Sean Hannity and others are already making that case this week following Trump’s victory.

And it’s the right path forward for Trump. Because guess what? He already won. Does he need to punish news networks after he already put on full display their limitations by largely going around them via the podcast community and winning the popular vote? Does he need to send the dogs after his political enemies of the past when the American voters just rendered all of their attacks on him moot by rewarding him the White House once again?

But if Trump avoids needlessly inflammatory conflicts and instead puts his head down and focuses on policy, and truly delivers wins for forgotten Americans, it will be tough to argue with the idea that he was a transformational President. Yes, that requires a shift in his priorities that we have often not seen the previous nine years. But he has no more races to run. He no longer has an incentive to rile up his base or put down the opposition. He got what he wanted. He won.

Trump already signaled his intention to run a successful, professional operation when he made the wise decision to hire political ace Susie Wiles as his Chief of Staff. Voters have been rightfully hungry for change in Washington. We can only hope Trump can deliver that change for the better.

Now, it’s onto our weekly game of winners and losers.

Winners

Honorable mention: Ballard Partners. And speaking of the new Trump administration, there is no Florida firm more strategically aligned to do well over the next four years.

The firm has one of the best rosters in the country and is exceedingly well-positioned to work well on behalf of their clients. Founder Brian Ballard has also been a strong Trump ally for years and has helped raise money for Trump. Ballard’s firm performed well under Trump’s first term and is likely to do so again.

Wiles herself is a Ballard Partners alum, and no doubt the outfit is in prime position to build a strong relationship with the administration going forward.

Two other firms that also deserve a mention here are Continental Strategy and the Vogel Group. Vogel Group Principal Matt Keelen has effectively captured Trump’s political comeback over the last year-plus. And Continental Strategy employs, and recently justifiably promoted, Wiles’ daughter, Katie Wiles.

Both firms should see success in the years ahead.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: GOP legislative leaders. Polling of several major Florida races gave Democrats hope they could outperform their dismal performance in 2022 enough this November to make inroads in the Legislature.

They failed (more on that later).

Instead, Republicans kept their supermajorities in both chambers and appear to have firmly established a stranglehold over Florida Democrats that is going to be hard to break.

One of the biggest tests was in the Senate District 3 race, where incumbent Republican Sen. Corey Simon was facing a serious challenge from lawyer Daryl Parks. Parks had plenty of institutional support and raised tons of cash to take back the district, which is home to Tallahassee.

But on Election Day, the race was nowhere near close. Simon earned nearly 56% of the vote for a dominating double-digit win over Parks.

And in the House, Republican incumbents nearly swept every competitive race in the state. Democrats targeted Fabián Basabe in South Florida in a traditionally blue district. Basabe won. Democrats went after incumbents Susan Plasencia, David Smith and Paula Stark in Central Florida, also in historically Democratic seats. All three Republicans won.

Only Carolina Amesty failed to defend her seat, but she faced plenty of personal shortcomings that led to that outcome (more on that later as well). And even then, she nearly won.

But Republicans made up for that loss by flipping the House District 35 seat, which Tom Keen won in a Special Election earlier this year that seemed to forecast possible Democratic strength in November. It didn’t, and he lost a rematch with Republican Erika Booth.

And for good measure, Republicans appear to be flipping Democratic Katherine Waldron’s South Florida seat, though that race is still in a recount.

Florida remained a swing state for decades before Republicans dominated statewide races in 2022 by nearly 20 points. The question before Tuesday was whether that 2022 result was a total outlier or a sign of entrenched GOP strength that would last for years to come.

We now know that answer, and Republican leaders in Tallahassee are reaping the results.

The biggest winner: Ron DeSantis. DeSantis wasn’t on the ballot Tuesday, but was heavily involved in this election nevertheless. And his two top priorities, defeating Amendments 3 and 4, were both successful.

DeSantis made every effort to push public opinion away from the two initiatives, which would have legalized recreational pot and enshrined abortion protections in Florida’s Constitution.

And while the bulk of polling showed those measures at or above the 60% share needed to pass, or below that level but with enough undecided voters to push them over the top, DeSantis’ efforts kept them shy of that level and led to their downfall.

DeSantis put his trust in Chief of Staff James Uthmeier to defeat the measure. Uthmeier was the architect of the campaigns, and he built a successful firewall to take these initiatives down.

And note: Trump and Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott each won their statewide races with around 56% support. Conversely, 56% votes in favor of legalizing pot, and 57% voted “yes” on protecting abortion rights.

That showed that despite Florida’s rightward turn, there was an appetite here for splitting tickets and voting in favor of these measures. It’s almost certain that without a concerted effort to kill these campaigns, they very well may have succeeded.

As for DeSantis World’s methods, we think spending state resources and trotting out administration officials at state-organized news conferences to get involved in a political campaign is a bad precedent to cement.

But with issues as culturally divisive as abortion and pot smoking, voters were always more likely to vote on the merits of the initiatives rather than the strategic mechanisms one side or the other used to push their message.

At some point down the line, Republicans may rue normalizing state actors being so heavily involved on one side of an election. But it worked this time, and voters weren’t put off by the effort. Republicans had power here, and they used it to an extent voters were comfortable with.

In the end, Team DeSantis got results.

Losers

Dishonorable mention: Amesty. In a red wave, the rising tide somehow failed to lift Amesty. Now, she will need to worry about her legal issues.

Amesty still faces charges after she was accused of notarizing a document for her family’s university signed by educator Robert Shaffer, which Shaffer says he never signed. Additional reporting also shows Shaffer and his roommate accusing Amesty of approaching them and asking him to recant his allegations.

We said as soon as the charges were announced against Amesty that she belonged nowhere in the House. And yes, that’s with the qualifier that everyone is innocent until proven guilty. But until the courts render a verdict on those charges, her priority needs to be defending them and clearing her name.

Well, now she’ll get that chance.

But it was close! With Republicans again dominating the state, Amesty lost by just a couple points to Democrat Leonard Spencer.

You can bet Republicans will be after this seat again in 2026.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: John Morgan. It was worth another shot 10 years after Florida voters first rejected a push to legalize recreational pot. But after the electorate voted “no” a second time, maybe the Pot Daddy should give it a rest for a while.

Morgan is the force that did give the state medical marijuana, after voters approved an initiative legalizing medical bud in 2016. He’s been vocal in the political scene for years as an influential lawyer, and will likely continue to do so.

But while a majority approved this year’s Amendment 3, it fell around 4 points short of the 60% approval to pass.

Morgan needs to read the writing on the wall here. With a full picture of Florida’s 2024 results, this is firmly a Republican state now. The swing state days, where enough voters might split their tickets to pass a medical marijuana initiative or a minimum wage increase, appear to be over.

It’s likely going to be a long while before anything like this has a chance of passing in Florida.

The biggest loser: Nikki Fried. In case we haven’t been clear throughout the duration of this piece, Republicans stomped Democrats up and down the ballot Tuesday. Republicans were the Harlem Globetrotters, and Fried was the coach of the Washington Generals.

And look, one side is always going to lose an election. It happens. But it’s not just that Fried lost here, but that she convinced folks into thinking Florida was winnable for Democrats.

Yes, public polling at times painted a picture that some races could be competitive. We covered those, as most outlets did. But campaigns on the ground often have a better feel than publicly released research. Did Fried really not see this red wave coming? Or did she see it, but tried to suck up national resources anyway?

Democrats had signs of hope leading up to November. They won the Jacksonville mayoral race in 2023. As we mentioned above, they snagged that HD 35 seat in a Special Election. The abortion initiative was on the ballot, perhaps driving up Democratic support in a Presidential Election year, where Democrats tend to do better.

There was a story to tell. The problem was that it was fiction.

And Fried is now faced with a grim future where Republicans are likely to continue to dominate this state for years to come.

Fried marketed herself as a leader that was going to change the status quo in Florida. Well, that’s true in one way. Florida is a swing state no more, and Democrats are now doomed to be the minority.

Florida is most definitely not in play.