Donald Trump has vowed to kill U.S. offshore wind projects. Will he succeed?

Those in the debate say Trump is unlikely to end those projects but might have more leverage over ones still in the planning stage.

Bob Stern, who headed an office in the U.S. Energy Department responsible for environmental protection during the Ford, Carter and Reagan administrations, said Trump can get Congress to reduce or eliminate tax credits for offshore wind that were granted in the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act. Those credits are an integral part of the finances of many offshore wind projects.

Stern, who leads the New Jersey anti-offshore wind group Save LBI, said Trump also could issue executive orders prohibiting further offshore leases and rescinding approval for ones already approved while pushing Congress to amend federal laws granting more protection for marine mammals.

The president-elect also can appoint leaders of agencies involved in offshore wind regulation who would be hostile to it or less supportive.

Opponents of offshore wind, many of them Republicans, were giddy following the election, saying they fully expect Trump to end the industry.

“I believe this is a tipping point for the offshore wind industry in America,” said Robin Shaffer, president of Protect Our Coast NJ, one of the most vocal groups opposing offshore wind on the East Coast. “They have been given a glide path by Democrat-run administrations at the federal and state level for many years. For this industry, (Tuesday’s) results will bring headwinds far greater than they have faced previously.”

Tina Zappile, director of the Hughes Center for Public Policy at New Jersey’s Stockton University, noted that in 2018, Trump Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke voiced strong support for offshore wind. And even though the President-elect has bashed the technology, she predicted he won’t just make it disappear.

“Offshore wind might appear to be on the chopping block — Trump’s explicitly said this was something he’d fix on the first day — but when the economics of offshore wind are in alignment with his overall strategies of returning manufacturing to America and becoming energy-independent, his administration is likely to back away slowly from this claim,” she said in an interview. “Offshore wind may be temporarily hampered, but its long-term prospects in the U.S. are unlikely to be hurt.”

Commercial fishermen in Maine said they hope the Trump administration will undo policies designed to help build and approve offshore wind projects, saying regulators attempted to “future-proof” the industry against political change. Jerry Leeman, CEO of the New England Fishermen’s Stewardship Association, called on Trump to reverse a commitment to deploy 30 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030.

The offshore wind industry is optimistic, pledging to work with Trump and his political allies. National and New Jersey wind industry groups and several offshore wind developers, including Atlantic Shores and Denmark-based Orsted, issued similarly worded statements highlighting terms likely to appeal to Republicans, including job creation, economic development, and national security.

“By combining the strengths of all domestic energy resources, the Trump administration can advance an economy that is dynamic, secure, and clean,” Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, said. “We are committed to working with the Trump-Vance administration and the new Congress to continue this great American success story.”

But few Republicans were in a welcoming mood following the election. In a Facebook post, New Jersey Assemblyman Paul Kanitra listed the major offshore wind companies, saying, “It’s time to pack your bags and get the hell away from the Jersey Shore, our marine life, fishing industry and beautiful beaches.”

Kanitra said he was looking forward to “your stock prices tanking, ” and that was starting to happen.

The stock prices of European offshore wind companies, many of which are planning or building projects on the U.S. East Coast, plunged amid fears the new administration would seek to slow or end such projects. Orsted closed nearly 14% down on Wednesday and 11% over the past five days. Turbine manufacturer Vestas Wind Systems was down almost 24% over that period.

Rep. Jeff Van Drew, a New Jersey Republican, hosted Trump at a rally earlier this year at which Trump again vowed to kill offshore wind.

“We are currently working out the specifics of what that will look like once he takes office again this January,” VanDrew said. “President Trump is a good friend of New Jersey, and he understands the devastating impact these projects will have on our communities.”

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Republished with permission of The Associated Press.