Survey: Florida divided on Donald Trump’s team — even the fake ones

Carter Banth may be President-elect Donald Trump’s least popular appointment to date, at least based on Sachs Media’s most recent survey of 800 registered Florida voters.

Just 33% approve of Trump naming Banth as an adviser on infrastructure, while a nearly equal 30% disapprove.

The thing is (as our readers likely know, but just 37% of respondents admit) neither Banth nor the position actually exist.

That’s right, almost two-thirds of Florida voters either approve or disapprove of someone who isn’t real, and it’s hard to come up with any reasonable explanation other than that their opinions are shaped entirely by their feelings for Trump himself.

“We were planning to test approval ratings for the dozen or so team members President Trump has named to date, but wanted some context for judging how Floridians make their ratings – how much is about the person who was appointed, and how much is about the man making the picks?” explained Karen Cyphers, who leads Sachs Media’s research practice.

“The question now is, can we take some measure of confidence that the ‘don’t know’ outnumbered the ‘satisfied’ or ‘dissatisfied,’ or should we lament that nearly 2 in 3 Floridians claim to feel something about a fictional person named to a fictional and non-controversial role.”

The Sachs survey, conducted using a random sample of the Florida Voter File from Nov. 11-17, does show some large gaps in approval between the most and least popular of Trump’s announced picks.

Leading the pack is Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, tapped by Trump to serve as the nation’s Secretary of State: 59% approve, 40% disapprove, and just 1% say they don’t know. Indeed, Rubio’s appointment enjoys approval by 1 in 4 Florida Democrats, more than double the satisfaction of Democrats for any other appointee.

In fact, Rubio is the only Trump appointee whose selection earned the majority of support from Florida voters surveyed. Following Rubio in approval is Tom Homan as “Border Czar” (49%), Elon Musk as an adviser on government efficiency (49%), Elise Stefanik as U.N. Ambassador (47%), Tulsi Gabbard as director of National Intelligence (46%), Doug Bergum as secretary of Department of the Interior (45%), Mike Waltz as National Security Adviser (45%), Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary (43%), Kristi Noem as secretary of Homeland Security (43%), and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as secretary of Health and Human Services (40%).

Perhaps showing that support for Rubio wasn’t solely due to “favorite son” status as a Floridian, Trump’s designation of Panhandle Congressman Matt Gaetz as Attorney General was the least popular, with only 38% in favor and 57% opposed. Predictably, for all of these individuals, approval was significantly greater among Republicans than Democrats — even for those who are (or recently were) themselves Democrats.

A few of these picks have exceptionally high profiles already – Musk, RFK Jr., and Gaetz, for example – and, predictably, fewer Florida voters express uncertainty about each. For others, it’s the prospective job that may inspire higher or lower confidence – for example, with Trump’s stance on the border well known, his appointment of Tom Homan leaves only 8% of Florida voters uncertain, regardless of whether they know much about him.

And then there’s Hegseth – the Fox News personality, author, and Army veteran among Trump’s most polarizing appointees. Hegseth attained the rank of Major in the Army National Guard, was an infantry officer, platoon leader in the 101st Airborne Division at Guantánamo Bay, civil-military operations officer in Iraq, and counterinsurgency trainer in Afghanistan.

Still, many critics believe Hegseth lacks senior defense experience for this post. So, Cyphers examined how Floridians view the qualifications of prior Secretaries of Defense, a position established in 1947 to embody civilian oversight of the military.

The military experience among the last 20 Secretaries has been remarkably diverse – including President Joe Biden’s current secretary, former four-star General Lloyd Austin; David Norquist, who had held only civilian roles in federal financial management and security before becoming Deputy Secretary in the first Trump administration and briefly serving as Acting Secretary for Biden; and Leon Panetta, who held the job in the Obama administration and had served as an Army First Lieutenant.

Cyphers randomly assigned respondents to view one of three messages – the first, about Hegseth’s rank as Major; the second, about Norquist’s civilian background; and the third, about Panetta’s service as a First Lieutenant. All three groups were then asked a common question: Do you believe this individual’s military experience was sufficient to qualify them for the role?

Once again, Florida voters in both parties appear to resort to political assumptions over objective evaluations.

Let’s start with Democrats. Just 3% of Democrats who were told about Hegseth’s rank as Major deemed it sufficient to qualify him for this role. This compares with 61% of Democrats who heard about Panetta’s rank as First Lieutenant (lower on the chain of command than Hegseth’s rank) and 37% who read about Norquist’s civilian experience.

Republicans show a similar bias. Nearly 3 in 4 (74%) assert that Hegseth’s military experience qualifies him for the role of Secretary of Defense. Still, just 18% of Republicans who read about Panetta’s rank said the same, and just 1% deemed Norquist’s civilian background as adequate.

Voters who register without party affiliation are more consistent in how they view these appointees. Equal shares view Hegseth and Panetta as qualified — and both more than Norquist.

“Military experience is one of many factors that could qualify a person to serve as Defense Secretary and no doubt it’s an important one,” Cyphers acknowledged. “But the reliance on that argument seems highly conditional on the party affiliation of the person making the appointment, more than the actual background of the nominee.”

Those same biases are indeed in play for all of these cabinet positions. Over the next many months, Floridians will have the opportunity to learn more about each appointee and reassess whether they’re fit to serve in the capacity President Trump desires. In most cases, the U.S. Senate will have that same task – to confirm or deny each appointment.

“We’ll continue surveying Florida voters on each of these nominees, and I expect we’ll see some shifts in public sentiment as President Trump’s final cabinet takes shape,” said Cyphers. “Stay tuned.”