Thanksgiving costs are down this year, but they still haven’t stabilized

Good news for Thanksgiving hosts this year: The average price for this year’s traditional spread for a gathering of 10 will cost about $58, down 5% from last year.

The bad news: That cost is still about 19% higher than five years ago.

The study from the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) evaluated costs for the usual Thanksgiving dinner, including turkey, cranberries, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, pumpkin pie mix and more. The organization has been evaluating Thanksgiving dinner prices since 1986.

The overall drop in price compared to last year comes as the cost of turkey is down about 6%, while sweet potatoes are down about 26%. But some prices are actually up, including an 8% increase to dinner rolls and stuffing.

Of the costs analyzed, the turkey is the largest, accounting for about 43% of the dinner expense historically. This year, a 16-pound turkey accounts for about 44% of the cost.

Milk, an ingredient in some sides, is down this year by about 14% compared to last year, a reflection of favorable weather conditions for dairy cows, according to the report. It’s worth noting that average prices may not reflect actual costs by region, as prices vary significantly across different areas of the country.

The report attributes increases to dinner rolls and cubed stuffing, as well as other processed products often used in Thanksgiving spreads, to non-food inflation and labor shortages that have driven up food supply chain costs overall.

Cranberries, while up in cost this year compared to last year, are actually more affordable than historical averages. The report notes that when adjusted for inflation, cranberries are actually at their lowest price point since 1987.

Floridians can rejoice this year. Grocery prices out West are about 14% higher than the rest of the country, with costs in the South among the lowest in the nation. It’s also much cheaper for everywhere but the West to expand their Thanksgiving menu. Adding ham, potatoes and green beans to the menu will push the average price to about $81 in the South and Northeast, and to about $83 in the Midwest. In the West, meanwhile, those additions push the grocery bill much higher, to more than $93.

The AFBF analyzes Thanksgiving dinner costs each year as a high-profile opportunity to spotlight food costs and trends.

“While consumers are seeing some signs of retail food price stability, farmers are experiencing lower and more volatile prices at the farm gate,” the report notes. “And just like consumers, they are also victims of inflation, as their production costs rose steeply over the last few years. USDA projects national net farm income will fall by $6.5 billion in 2024.”

One of the AFBF’s key takeaways from this year’s report aligns well with the Thanksgiving holiday, highlighting the need to give thanks to farmers.

“Low crop prices, poor growing weather, disasters like the recent hurricanes and shifting international markets all threaten farmers’ livelihoods. Congress has historically provided help in the form of the farm bill and in exceptional situations, disaster relief. The most recent farm bill expired this fall, already six years old and out of date; and disaster relief in recent years has been short and severely delayed, hampering recovery for farmers and rural communities,” the report said.