A word of caution to Ron DeSantis: Don’t accept Donald Trump’s nomination

President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering Gov. Ron DeSantis for Secretary of Defense to replace Trump’s embattled first pick for the job, Fox News host Pete Hegseth.

It’s a shiny offer, full of enticing professional perks and résumé builders. And it’s remarkable considering the feud between DeSantis and Trump that bubbled over in the early days of the GOP Presidential Primary and ultimately led to an embarrassing departure from the trail by DeSantis.

But a word of caution to DeSantis as he mulls his options: Don’t do it.

“No,” we understand, would be a difficult answer to get to for DeSantis, whose Washington ambitions are no secret. See exhibits A and B — DeSantis’ 2016 U.S. Senate bid and his presidential run this past cycle. But don’t forget, Governor, you have what is perhaps the best job outside of the White House, running a state with Republican supermajorities in both legislative chambers, a deepening red statewide electorate and a mandate for your final years in office.

You’re in charge of the Florida Army National Guard, even if that means shipping them off to Texas to play border patrol. You’re leading the charge on modern conservative education reforms that go beyond school choice and venture into an all-out war on the “wokeism” you so despise. The list goes on.

Consider working in the Pentagon, by contrast. Gone would be the “yes men” and women of the Florida Legislature who go along not just because you’re you, but because their politics genuinely align. Do you think the Joint Chiefs are going to be so accommodating of your whims? The answer is a resounding no.

It’s true that you would be in charge. And it’s also true that you would be able to serve as a “disruptor” at a time when the American military could use a good disrupting.

But, let’s be honest, how long would you last?

This isn’t a question meant to be a referendum on you, Governor. It’s just that, how long does anyone ever last in a Trump administration?

Let’s look just at the job for which you are being considered. Trump had two Defense Secretaries in his first presidency, Mark Esper and James Mattis. Mattis, Trump’s first pick, resigned a little less than halfway through the administration, so just shy of two years. Overall, Trump had a 92% turnover of his “A Team,” those who were his first hires. That means 92% of all the nominees confirmed to Trump’s first administration were eventually replaced, either because Trump fired them or because they resigned.

So maybe you last 18 months, which might be generous, but then you’ll be right back where you would have been anyway in 2026 — out of office with renewed presidential ambitions.

And perhaps you’re thinking, “but this will give me the big guy’s endorsement!” But does it?

You’d have to cut off JD Vance, which already seems unlikely. And even if you somehow managed to grab the inside lane, you’d still have to avoid getting cross-wired with Trump. Given his track record (I reiterate that 92% turnover rate), that seems next to impossible.

The bottom line is simple: When something seems too good to be true, it probably is.

Governor, you have managed to turn Florida from a perennial swing state into a shining beacon for conservative ideologues. That million-voter registration advantage the state GOP now enjoys is largely attributable to your policies and leadership, particularly during the COVID pandemic that saw liberals flee and conservatives flock. You’ve created a national identity for yourself as a pioneer in a new, MAGA-adjacent conservative movement.

This cycle may not have been your time to forge that path to the White House, but you’re still young. It’s impossible to say whether a path will ever fully materialize for you to ascend to the world’s most powerful position, but it’s more likely than not the path does not run through Secretary of Defense.

So Governor, just don’t do it.