Primary Elections to choose likely successors to Matt Gaetz, Michael Waltz in Congress

It will be a few months before Florida fills two vacancies in its congressional delegation. But the most likely candidates to fill the seats will be the winners of Republican Primaries in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional districts today.

Republicans in the Florida Panhandle will choose between 10 candidates vying to replace former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, who vacated his seat last year. In the CD 6 contest to succeed U.S. Rep. Michael Waltz, now President Donald Trump’s National Security Adviser, there will be both Democratic and Republican Primaries.

In both contests the Republican who emerges tonight will head to an April 1 Special Election as a heavy favorite in districts that voted overwhelmingly for Trump last year.

CD 1

In the Panhandle contest, the top fundraiser has been Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, who has flooded airwaves and mailboxes touting Trump’s endorsement. He also was going to local gun shops touting his record on gun rights as a Cabinet member and state lawmaker before that.

“Proud to be the only one in the race with an A+ rating from the NRA. It’s just a fact that if you don’t have a means of defending yourself or your family — you got nothing,” he said. “I love the 2nd Amendment and I’m gonna defend it and protect it in Congress. Vote tomorrow!”

But hundreds of thousands have also been spent by former Escambia County Commissioner Gene Valentino, who has painted himself as a Trump-like businessman-turned-politician.

“Bureaucrats will always pick pay and benefits over the people who foot the bills,” he posted. “When I’m in Congress, I will make sure tax dollars are budgeted to benefit Florida District 1 and We the People instead of Washington chair-sitters.

Former state Rep. Joel Rudman also raised more than six figures for the seat. He has billed himself as a Gaetz ally and a supporter of Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Aaron Dimmock, Gaetz’s Primary opponent last cycle, has also been able to make a sizable investment based largely on money left over from last cycle.

Other candidates include Kevin Gaffney, Jeff Macey, Greg Merk, John Mills, Jeff Peacock and Michael Dylan Thompson, all of whom have made impressions of various levels at forums and in canvassing strategies. As with any Special Election, the low turnout in CD 1’s GOP Primary could always deliver a surprise. Regardless, the winner heads to an April 1 General Election against Democrat Gay Valimont, independent Stephen Brody and a few write-in candidates. But more than 53% of the electorate is registered as a Republican, according to L2 voter data, and only 22% of the district’s voters are registered as Democrats.

CD 6

State Sen. Randy Fine, a Palm Bay Republican and Trump’s pick in CD 6, holds the cash advantage in a race against Aaron Baker and Ehsan Joarder.

Fine notably has been in Special Session, where he has championed an end to in-state tuition for undocumented immigrants attending Florida’s colleges and universities. He said spending time in Tallahassee instead of the district was a personal price he had to pay for the Session being called but a duty he had to see through.

“I may have an election tomorrow, but I am not giving up a chance to fight illegal immigration,” he posted.

Both Democrats Ges Selmont and Josh Weil pulled in six figures for a nomination fight.

Winners of each Primary head to April, and will face Libertarian Andrew Parrott, independent Randall Terry and a write-in. But as in CD 1, Republicans hold a strong edge in the Special General Election. Nearly 46% of the electorate are registered Republicans, according to L2, and less than 27% of voters are Democrats.

The two vacancies have left the Florida Congressional Delegation undermanned, and perhaps most importantly left the House Republican majority with a difficult-to-manage margin over Democrats in the House. There are currently 218 GOP members seated compared to 215 Democrats.

Voting advocacy groups encouraged Floridians in the districts to exercise their right to vote.

“These primary elections will determine who voters in north Florida can choose as their representative in the U.S. Congress.” said Amy Keith, executive director of Common Cause Florida. “This is why voting in primary elections is so incredibly important. We want to remind voters in Congressional Districts 1 and 6 to show up for democracy and make sure they don’t miss out on this opportunity to make their voice heard. I’m urging every Floridian who is eligible to vote in these primaries to cast a ballot in the special primary election.”