Ryan Nicol
Democratic consultant Christian Ulvert is channeling one of former President Joe Biden’s favorite sayings, arguing that election results from April Fools’ Day portend good fortune for Democrats in the upcoming cycle.
In a memo arguing signs of a Democratic renaissance are “not a joke,” Ulvert made the case by pointing to success nationwide in Chicago and Wisconsin, as well as Democratic over-performance in two congressional Special Elections in Florida.
He spotlighted in particular Democrat Gay Valimont winning Escambia County in the Florida’s 1st Congressional District, even as she lost the overall contest, which former state Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis won by nearly 15 points.
“President Trump carried Escambia County by nearly 20 points in 2024, and no candidate for federal office has won Escambia County in 20 years,” Ulvert’s memo noted. “In fact, Senator Bill Nelson, a moderate, pragmatic Democrat won the county in 2006, which only reaffirms the significant shift and backlash voters are voicing.”
Ulvert says the fact that Democrats were able to gain ground means they are winning key swing voters to their side amid discontent with President Donald Trump’s administration. Trump endorsed Patronis.
“This only happens in Republican strongholds when NPA voters overwhelmingly vote for the Democrat and reasonable Republicans join in that vote to send a message,” Ulvert’s memo continued.
“In Miami-Dade, we experienced similar trends when Annette Taddeo won a state Senate seat in 2017 by a 4-point margin, less than a year after the Republican state Senator won in 2016 by 12 points, reflecting a 16-point swing in the seat’s performance.”
Democrats have been publicly hashing out what message and what type of candidate to lean on going forward. Amid that debate, Ulvert says Democrats should run “young, pragmatic candidates who are not afraid to speak up and speak out.”
“Democrats need to have a clear message,” his memo added. “Voters want to see Democrats lead with a bold economic agenda that puts families first, protects every aspect of the American Dream and advances a foreign policy agenda that truly puts America First by leading with mutual respect, as has been done since our nation was founded nearly 250 years ago.”
And even though Republicans in the past two cycles have dominated Florida elections more so than at any time in recent history, Ulvert says Democrats can put in play Florida’s 27th Congressional District, currently held by Republican U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar.
“Given the numbers we’ve seen over the last two months, and most recently on April 1, Democrats are over-performing by an average of 18 points across jurisdictions, putting districts like CD 27 squarely on the map,” Ulvert’s memo concluded.
“Now, it’s up to the national and state parties, along with the party committees to invest swiftly to create the environment Democrats need to win next November.”
In CD 27 in particular, Salazar won by nearly 21 points and nearly 15 points in 2024 and 2022, respectively. But in last month’s Special Elections, Democrats chipped away at Trump’s November margins in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts by 15-plus points.
That gives Ulvert optimism that with 18 more months of fodder from Trump’s second administration, voters will be open to moving toward Democrats.
“Across the country, voters from all political parties sent a resounding message: enough with extremism — it’s time for leadership that reflects real-life priorities and real-world solutions,” Ulvert said.
“Let’s not wait until the 11th hour only to fumble the ball,” he added. “We can win with the right candidate, and MOM by our side: Money, Organization and Message!”
