Report: Winter Haven, Tampa and West Palm Beach at ‘high risk’ for fall in housing prices

In a new analysis by data research company Cotality, three Florida cities are at “high risk” of home prices dramatically falling in the near future.

The real estate market has taken off in Florida since the COVID pandemic. But the report from Cotality, formerly known as CoreLogic, concludes that Tampa, Winter Haven and West Palm Beach may see notable downturns in home prices.

Winter Haven was ranked the top housing market in the country that is at “very high risk” of seeing a decline in housing market prices.

“Flattening home price changes over the last six months suggest further price deceleration is ahead,” said Cotality Chief Economist Selma Hepp.

“More importantly, compressed monthly changes highlight the general lack of homebuying demand that continues to characterize the current housing market. While this year’s cold winter and large natural disasters play a role in dampening demand, falling consumer sentiment suggests potential homebuyers are wary of the short-term economic outlook and future inflation.”

According to Cotality data, Winter Haven has generally seen a steady increase in median home price, jumping from the January 2021 figure of $234,900 to $314,950 in January 2025. Tampa was listed as the third-most likely housing market in the country to see a sharp decline, while West Palm Beach market was ranked fifth.

Tampa has seen median home sale prices spike from $265,000 four years ago to $360,000 to start this year. West Palm Beach’s median price tag jumped from $323,000 in January 2021 to $485,000.

Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona, were ranked second and fourth, respectively, among housing markets expected to see a sharp cooldown, according to the analysis.

Realtor.com analysts reacted to the Cotality report, saying Florida may be teed up for a drop across the board in real estate prices, even though most markets in the state may not see as dramatic a decline as in Winter Haven, Tampa and West Palm Beach.

“Prices have softened as for-sale inventory has piled up in Florida and homes (stay) longer on the market than they did in the post-pandemic buying frenzy,” said senior economist Joel Berner in a report for the real estate organization.

“This isn’t yet a concern, just the market adjusting to a new pace. Some of the change in listing price is due to smaller homes being on the market as well. We see much less of a retreat in median listing price per square foot since 2022 than we do in the overall median, which is a good sign that the market is remaining on track.”

The most affordable home sale markets were nearly all in the Midwest, with Johnstown, Pennsylvania ranked at the top with a $110,000 median home sales price. Danville, Illinois, is second at $120,000. Altoona, Pennsylvania, ranked third. Steubenville, Ohio, placed fourth. Cumberland, Maryland, came in fifth.