Janelle Irwin Taylor
Former Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn is poised to get his old job back if he jumps into the race, according to new polling data.
A survey just released, conducted in late April, shows Buckhorn leading a five-way field of potential contenders by around 27 percentage points over even his closest competitor.
In a multicandidate field including Buckhorn, Tampa City Council members Bill Carlson and Lynn Hurtak, Sen. Jay Collins and House Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell, Buckhorn holds a commanding lead, with 49% support, according to the Mercury Public Affairs poll. Carlson trails at 22%, with Driskell showing 12% support in a hypothetical race. Neither Collins nor Hurtak drew even double-digit support, at 9% and 8%, respectively.
If the election were today and those numbers held, Buckhorn would face a runoff election against Carlson. In that scenario, Buckhorn also commands a huge lead, with 39% support to 17%.
“These numbers underscore Buckhorn’s strong foundation heading into a potential campaign,” Mercury Public Affairs Partner Ashley Walker said. “He’s already near the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff in a hypothetical field of candidates, enjoys broad name recognition and is well-regarded across the electorate.”
On favorability, the poll found Buckhorn with 58% support compared to just 19% of respondents who view the former Mayor unfavorably. Carlson, meanwhile, posted just a 30% favorability rating, compared to 15% who see him unfavorably.
None of the candidates included in the poll have officially declared their intent to run, though both Buckhorn and Carlson are widely expected to join the race. Driskell is facing term limits in her House seat, and could run in the 2027 Mayor’s race as a next step.
Collins is the only registered Republican in the field of candidates tested in the poll. He is not facing term limits, and would face a challenging race in Tampa, where Democrats still far outnumber Republicans despite GOP gains throughout Hillsborough County overall.
There are more than 79,000 registered Democrats in the city, with just over 62,000 Republicans. That’s a big gap to overcome even with a sizable number — more than 52,000 — of political independents, according to the most recent voter data from the Hillsborough County Supervisor of Elections Office.
Buckhorn previously served two terms as Mayor, preceding current Mayor Jane Castor, who was elected in 2019. Buckhorn is eligible to run again because two full terms will have passed by the time he would be sworn in for another term, resetting limits.
All eyes are on Buckhorn and Carlson as the 2027 race draws closer. The two have been known foes since Buckhorn’s initial terms in office. Since Castor was elected and seen as a close ally to Buckhorn, Carlson has also opposed her, often voting against her priorities, or for measures that would reduce her authority. A matchup between Buckhorn and Carlson would likely pit institutional Democrats against the more progressive wing of the local party.
And Buckhorn is already laying the foundation for a monied bid for his old job. He was the guest of honor this week at a luncheon hosted by Hillsborough County Sheriff Chad Chronister, Tampa Bay Lightning owner Jeff Vinik, and business leaders Kathleen Shanahan and Stuart Lasher. No minimum donation was listed for the event, which was advertised by a political committee supporting Buckhorn, Friends of Bob Buckhorn.
The lunch featured a discussion with Buckhorn about “what’s next for Tampa and for this campaign,” an obvious reference to Buckhorn’s ongoing mayoral ambitions.
The Friends of Bob Buckhorn political committee has not posted any fundraising activity as of March 31.
