Drew Dixon
Florida’s economy is on solid footing and projected growth over the next five years seems promising, but net migration to Florida will begin to slow, according to the latest economic forecast from Florida TaxWatch.
The government spending and advocacy watchdog group has been publishing regular forecasts for the state’s economy for years. The 2024 to 2030 outlook projects some promising figures, but there are also cautionary signs in the detailed analysis.
The Regional Economic Consulting Group, an organization that provides economic data analysis, helped formulate the report.
Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic Calabro acknowledged the analysis shows a booming economy, generally speaking, for the Sunshine State.
“Florida’s economy has grown to nearly $1.5 trillion, which may be attributed in part to an abundance of natural amenities, low cost of living, and no personal income tax. Over the past several decades, the number of people moving into Florida increased and the number of people moving out of Florida remained steady,” Calabro said.
“This is the main reason why Florida TaxWatch is focused on workforce and housing affordability, quality health care, and a multi-year funding process for critical water infrastructure that will help sustain Florida’s successful growth.”
Florida’s burgeoning population easily plays the most significant factor in buoying the state’s economy, according to the study. The state currently has a total population of about 23.3 million people. But the pace of growth is likely to slow by the end of this decade.
The TaxWatch study concluded that the number of people living in the state will grow by 1.4 million by 2030. But net migration into Florida will start to slow within the next five years. As of 2024, Florida saw a net migration of about 982 people each day. That will likely drop to an estimated 789 by 2030.
Florida was known as an affordable cost-of-living state for decades, with bountiful and affordable housing and plenty of industries generating jobs. But the TaxWatch analysis showed that has been changing.
“Rising costs of living, insurance, and weather concerns are some of the reasons driving people to leave the state,” the report said.
Some of the more detailed economic analysis shows additional slowdown. Analysts predict the current unemployment rate of 3.7%, according to FloridaCommerce, will rise to a peak of 4.5% in 2027 and then fall again by the end of the decade.
The rate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth is also expected to slow down, falling from 3.5% in 2024 to 3% in 2030.
A major contributor to GDP is Florida’s rich tourism industry, which saw record visitation in 2024 of 142.9 million visitors. That was the third straight year with new highs in tourism.
The TaxWatch report concluded it will likely take a hit soon. The report said tourism growth is expected to sit at just 0.3% this year, and they expect the industry will have no growth in 2027. But analysts expect a rebound toward the end of the decade.
Florida TaxWatch Executive Vice President and General Counsel Jeff Kottkamp said the report was a reality check that shows nothing is guaranteed for Florida’s economy, despite some complacency. But given the state’s history, it will likely survive any momentary downturns.
“Overall, Florida’s economic growth pattern will match or surpass the national economic growth pattern in most economic indicators for the next five years, including population and net migration, employment, GDP and income growth, and tourism,” Kottkamp said. “Florida TaxWatch undertakes this important work each quarter and is cautiously optimistic that Florida’s economy will remain strong through 2030.”
