UNF survey: First Coast manufacturers see contraction among key production indicators in May

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A report on First Coast manufacturers indicates several sectors saw more contraction in May amid trade tariff turmoil.

The University of North Florida (UNF) Jacksonville Economic Monitoring Survey (JEMS) showed only three out of 12 sectors expanded last month. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicated a sluggish manufacturing picture on the First Coast in May.

“Jacksonville’s headline PMI registered 47.5, signaling a contraction in the region’s manufacturing sector. A PMI below 50 reflects declining activity, and Jacksonville’s performance closely mirrors the national trend, with the U.S. PMI at 48.5,” said Albert Loh, Interim Dean of the UNF Coggin College of Business, which conducts the survey.

“Companies continue to report weak demand, falling backlogs, and cautious hiring strategies, often opting for layoffs or hiring freezes.”

The JEMS survey taps manufacturers on the First Coast to see how their performance measures up monthly. May was the fourth month in a row that saw notable contraction in several areas.

Among the key factors contracting were new orders, which reported an index level of 42 in April. That did not expand at all in May.

“This index measures the proportion of firms reporting an increase or decrease in new orders, so a reading of 42 suggests that far more companies are experiencing a drop in new orders than are seeing growth. This is a key leading indicator for the local economy, as new orders often precede future production, employment, and investment activity,” Loh concluded in his report.

Manufacturing output wasn’t any better. That sector was equally stubborn.

“The output index for Jacksonville stood at 45, signaling a contraction in production activity across the region,” Loh said.

“Since this index reflects the percentage of companies reporting increased or decreased output compared to the previous month, a reading below 50 indicates that more firms saw a decline in production than an increase. This contraction could imply lower business confidence or broader economic uncertainty impacting local industries.”

Only three indexes showed expansion, including output prices, average input prices and suppliers’ delivery times — and those were modest increases.

The April UNF JEMS report indicated manufacturers are jittery over proposed trade tariffs by President Donald Trump, leading to much of the contraction. Loh said that anxiety did not wane in May.

“Price pressure, mainly driven by tariffs, remained elevated, although the pace of increase moderated slightly. Jacksonville businesses echoed these concerns, particularly around tariffs. These conditions are reinforcing an atmosphere of hesitation and reduced forward-looking investment, with firms describing the current business climate as highly uncertain,” Loh said.