Jesse Scheckner
Miami Beach Mayor Steven Meiner may wind up serving just one term as the city’s top official if new polling proves correct through Election Day.
Among informed voters — voters given information about candidates in a given election — Meiner trails challenger Kristen Rosen Gonzalez, a sitting City Commissioner, by 6 percentage points, according to a recent survey by MDW Communications.
Notably, Meiner has not yet filed to run for re-election, and pollsters did not inquire about candidate Victor Rosario, who has been running for Mayor since September but hasn’t reported any outside fundraising.
More than a third of respondents also remain undecided in the race.
Plantation-based MDW said it conducted the survey of 402 likely Miami Beach voters May 19-26 for “an independent group not affiliated with any candidate.”
The sample was weighted to a likely municipal election turnout of 44% Democrat, 26% Republican and 30% third- or no-party affiliation; 32% Hispanic, 2.25% African American and 7.75% “other”; and 52% male and 46% female.
The poll had a 4-point margin of error.
As is the case during most Midterm cycles, candidates aligned with Republican President Donald Trump’s administration and its agenda are expected to face political headwinds in Miami Beach.
The city’s offices are technically nonpartisan, meaning candidates’ political affiliations will not be denoted on the ballot. Meiner was a Republican until 2018, when he switched to no party affiliation. Rosen Gonzalez is a longtime Democrat, while Rosario switched from Democrat to no party affiliation in 2021.
Trump made historic gains in Miami-Dade during the 2024 election cycle, becoming the first GOP candidate for President to flip the county since 1988 while leading a ticket on which all five races for constitutional offices went to Republicans. Last month, “active” Republican voters overtook their Democratic counterparts in the county — though Democrats still lead in registered voters.
But MDW found Trump remains deeply disliked in Miami Beach, with 64% of voters holding an unfavorable view of him and only 34% rating him very favorably. That could portend dismal returns for candidates whose policies most reflect the President’s — in this case, Meiner, whose hardline stance on crime during Spring Break, homelessness and controversial opposition to a local screening of a pro-Palestine documentary drew ample headlines in recent months.
Local issues are also front and center. According to the poll, the top three concerns are historic preservation and development (19%), traffic (13%), and flooding and resiliency (13%). All are perpetual challenges in Miami Beach, a city grappling with balancing development pressures, managing increasing road congestion, and fortifying itself against the impacts of climate change.
Other contests in Miami Beach’s Nov. 4 General Election include a crowded race to replace Rosen Gonzalez in the Commission’s Group 1 seat — which includes candidates Daniel Ciraldo, Brian Ehrlich, Matthew Gultanoff, Monroe Mann, Luidgi Mary, Monica Matteo-Salinas and Monique Pardo Pope — and races for the panel’s Group 2 and Group 3 seats where the respective Democratic incumbents, Laura Dominguez and Alex Fernandez, are currently unopposed.
