Poll: Medicaid expansion amendment on track to pass

New polling shows Floridians could be positive on Medicaid expansion should it be on the 2026 General Election ballot.

The Florida Decides Healthcare poll shows 67% of those surveyed back the proposed constitutional amendment, well ahead of the more than 60% needed to get it over the threshold.

When undecided respondents are forced to choose, the number increases to 71%.

“Support for the amendment is cross-partisan and exceeds 60% in every region across the state and with white non-college, Black, and Hispanic voters alike,” says the memo from pollsters Global Strategy Group.

The polling memo suggests that support for the concept increases when arguments in favor of it are rehearsed, with 74% of them “drawn to stories of Floridians who cannot get healthcare because they are stuck in the Medicaid coverage gap” and “receptive to a fiscal argument in favor of expansion.”

Arguments against the proposal don’t knock it below the threshold to pass, the memo says. Even after pollsters didn’t “pull any punches on simulating opposition arguments,” Medicaid expansion has 63% support.

“Floridians are ready for change. This polling confirms what we’ve known all along — voters want Medicaid expansion. Florida is at a breaking point. Without Medicaid expansion, we are heading straight into a healthcare catastrophe,” said Mitch Emerson, Executive Director at Florida Decides Healthcare.

If the amendment passes, Florida would provide Medicaid coverage to individuals over age 18 and under age 65 who make up to 138% of the federal poverty level.

The survey of 800 likely 2026 voters in Florida was conducted between June 11 and June 17. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points. Of those polled, 46% are Republican, 33% Democrat and 21% have no party affiliation.

The citizens’ initiative has 62,650 valid signatures as of this writing, far short of the 880,652 needed to put the issue on the ballot.