Drew Dixon
First Coast manufacturing contracted yet again in July, marking a half-year of contraction among industrialists in the region.
The University of North Florida (UNF) Jacksonville Economic Monitoring Survey (JEMS) showed 10 out of 12 sectors contracted last month, an even sharper decline than in June. The streak of overall contraction among First Coast manufacturers started in February and has not reversed since.
Albert Loh, interim Dean of the UNF Coggin College of Business, supervises the survey of industrial output. He said that given the national implications of President Donald Trump’s international tariff considerations, manufacturers remain nervous. Most show a manufacturing index below a score of 50, which is the measuring stick for expansion.
“Multiple subindexes, including new orders, new export orders, backlogs of work, input purchases, material inventories, and employment, registered well below 50, showing broad-based weakness in demand and production pipelines,” Loh said in his summary of the survey.
“Hiring remains weak as companies manage headcount cautiously. Demand indicators, such as new orders and backlogs, contracted at slower rates, hinting at a potential bottoming out, while customers’ inventories remained too low.”
UNF researchers from the JEMS project reach out to First Coast manufacturing companies each month to see where they stand on production and several other factors.
The 12-month business outlook among North Florida manufacturers was the most radically impacted last month. That sector dropped from a score of 50 in June to 42 in July.
Loh said that element is bleak, “indicating that a significantly larger share of local manufacturers expect business activity to decline rather than increase over the next 12 months. The survey comments help explain the weak sentiment. Respondents cited challenges such as ‘rising steel costs and customer price pressure squeeze margins’ and how ‘tariffs make sourcing harder to plan,’” Loh said.
New export orders and new orders also took heavy hits in the survey as both of those showed a decrease, falling from 46 to 43.
“New orders are a forward-looking indicator, so a drop to this level raises concerns about softer production activity and revenue in the months ahead,” Loh said.
The drop in score for new export orders was equally unsettling.
“This could be the result of slower economic growth in key trading partners, higher shipping costs, or ongoing trade policy uncertainties impacting Jacksonville’s export-dependent sectors,” Loh said.
He added that the remainder of 2025 could be a rough ride for First Coast manufacturers.
“While the area’s strong transportation infrastructure and port access provide long-term advantages, current conditions suggest that the remainder of 2025 may see subdued growth unless there is a rebound in domestic and export demand,” Loh said.
