Casey DeSantis’ 2026 odds fall on Kalshi, near a historic low

Casey Desantis hope Florida rumble
Donald Trump's handpicked candidate is the heavy favorite.

Though the market still has light volume, people willing to put money on the identity of the next Republican gubernatorial nominee are fading First Lady Casey DeSantis.

As of Saturday morning, the Kalshi platform affords the former newscaster just a 7% chance of winning next August’s primary, representing one of her worst showings. In late June, she had just a 5% chance according to investors, but her odds recovered thereafter.

Whether she gets a bounce or not remains to be seen.

However, Rep. Byron Donalds, who is the front-runner in the race not just for the GOP nod but the general election as well, is seen as having a 71% chance of winning.

Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has helped to promulgate the idea that his wife should be Governor for months, finally appointed a Lieutenant Governor this week: former Sen. Jay Collins.

If the Governor senses any urgency for a preferred candidate of his to enter the race, he wouldn’t say when asked directly this week.

“Politics will take care of itself. I mean, we have a whole year before we even have a Primary, and so that’s a lifetime in politics,” DeSantis said at the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office.

Regarding the First Lady, the Governor said “people have asked her to do things because they know she’s a dynamic speaker, very eloquent, very accomplished,” but added that being Governor is “not anything she … has ever outwardly sought.”

Collins isn’t being considered as a Kalshi option yet. And DeSantis suggests the jury is still out on whether he should run.

“I have confidence that he could do the job as Governor and do it well,” DeSantis said of Collins. “Now, when you talk about someone running, you know, there’s people that could be a good Governor who may not be able to be a good candidate. There are some candidates who could be good, who’d be lousy Governors. It doesn’t necessarily go one or the other, right?”

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has been the Northeast Florida correspondent for Florida Politics since 2014. His work also can be seen in the Washington Post, the New York Post, the Washington Times, and National Review, among other publications. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


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