Guest AuthorIn the political hothouse that is Florida, the number of people who actually believe that Marco Rubio would be a better president of the United States than Jeb Bush would fit into, well, Freedom Hall in Miami. But the political cognoscenti who fear Marco’s presidential candidacy is just the opening gambit in a run for governor in 2018, a race he might actually be able to win, would fill a much larger venue. Hence the unavailability of lobbyists willing to be quoted in the press and the outbreak of nervous facial tics on suddenly silent pols from Tallahassee to Tavernier.
But the assumption that the Florida state house is Marco’s guaranteed consolation prize following a failed presidential campaign is open to question. First, how he fails is important. Close but no cigar after a credible effort would enhance his stature for a gubernatorial race. But slinking away from the presidential race after a couple of not ready for prime time gaffes and a series of second tier primary finishes would be wounding if not fatal to his gubernatorial prospects. Like sex and food, much of politics is about presentation and perception. It is in this context that the presidential gambit offers ample opportunity but poses substantial risks.
Then there is Marco himself. He is affable, eloquent and attractive, and his political antenna is certainly in good working order, but there is vibe beneath the veneer that is unsettling. He seems to be uncertain of either his footing or of his principles. No profile in courage thus far, he appears to beta test policy positions, quickly abandoning those that prove problematic and incorporating into his rhetorical repertoire those that don’t. Examples of the former are Personal Injury Protection reform in Florida, Tea Party poster boy after he arrived in DC and immigration reform statesman. Examples of the latter are the ever popular ticky tacky tax and fee cuts in Florida, anti-Obama foreign policy Jeremiads and the born in a Cuban log cabin back story.
It might be unfair to say that Marco’s course on tough issues is always altered by controversy, but it would accurate to observe that he is not what anyone would call tenacious when the fur starts to fly. He will mix it up every day and twice on Sundays with those on the left who would die rather than vote for him in any event, but he suddenly remembers that he left the water running back home whenever the conservative choir to which he preaches with such passion starts to become restless, because preaching to the choir is his forte.
This candidate equivalent of happy feet in a talented quarterback is likely to produce similar results – dazzling moments interspersed with game-changing unforced errors. If it is just inexperience, then it can be corrected over time. If it is inauthenticity, then it is a character flaw that voters, however obtuse, will intuit given sufficient exposure, the type of exposure that is de rigueur in a presidential race. The fates of Tom Gallagher in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary and Charlie Crist in the 2014 gubernatorial general election come to mind, although these are admittedly extreme examples of inauthenticity.
The bottom line is that a hypothetical Marco march to the statehouse could be made easier if he covers himself in glory during the next year. But if he does a face plant, what is in fact a difficult and uncertain climb to the state house will become steeper still, what with at least Adam Putnam and Bob Buckhorn in his road.
So the timid among those in “the process” that is political inside baseball in Florida should keep in mind the laconic verdict of one long time Marco observer: “Marco has broad shoulders and weak knees.”
Column courtesy of Context Florida.
