A.G. Gancarski
For weeks now, Jacksonville voters have seen positive ads from the Alvin Brown mayoral campaign. A new one is out now — featuring Brown’s mentor, the Rev. H.T. Rhim, and spotlighting his administration’s commitment to education, including the “Learn 2 Earn” initiative. In the ad, Brown talks about being raised by “two strong women,” his mother and grandmother, and it is of a piece with the “Jobs” and “He Cut His Own Pay” ads.
It’s a strong spot. However, it’s not the Brown ad that people are talking about these days. A second ad, that people started seeing on local TV screens this week, hits his principal opponent, Lenny Curry, harder than anything in the campaign so far.
Describing Curry as a “political insider” who “always puts politics first,” running “phony ads” as part of his “negative campaign,” that advertisement is the first negative foray run by the Brown campaign.
That’s the first negative ad from the Brown camp. Chances are that it won’t be the last. Even though they aren’t hosting it on their official YouTube channel, it arguably is the most important ad of the campaign.
Campaigns go negative when their polls tell them it’s a good idea, and we’ve seen a lot of hard-hitting material from the Curry side already. The fact that the incumbent’s operation is going negative means that their internal polls are telling them that they need to do so. That, perhaps, those negative spots from the Curry side are starting to leave marks.
With early voting starting in just a few days, many Duval County voters are going to be making their choices well before Election Day. The increased incidence of negative advertising suggests that the Brown campaign doesn’t see its way clear to a majority in March. That means we will see two more months of campaigning, and a whole lot of opposition research will come to the fore.
The Brown side had, for weeks, attempted to draw a distinction between the “negative campaigning” of the Curry side and their spotless messaging. Now it seems that they are willing to sling mud themselves.
