Steve Vancore, Author at Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government.

Steve VancoreAugust 22, 2018

Andrew Gillum may indeed be in the lead. And so may Adam Putnam. Is it possible that after Donald Trump’s endorsement and the dramatic rise in Ron DeSantis’ numbers, GOP voters are having buyer’s remorse and are reverting back to the more familiar comfort of Putnam? Maybe. And if so, good for both of them. But […]

Steve VancoreMay 10, 2016

How do we interpret the latest offering from Quinnipiac University showing Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in a dead heat? For those who do not know me or what I look like, allow me to offer you a brief description. I am about 6” tall, have killer abs, a full head of hair and possessed with […]

Steve VancoreMarch 10, 2016

The poll aggregating website, Real Clear Politics, shows a half-dozen polls released in the past three days alone. Additionally, Associated Industries of Florida has released a series of polls and a detailed analysis of their findings. If you’re paying even the slightest bit of attention, you are probably scratching your head over the differences – the […]

Steve VancoreMarch 10, 2016

The poll aggregating website, Real Clear Politics, shows a half-dozen polls released in the past three days alone. Additionally, Associated Industries of Florida has released a series of polls and a detailed analysis of their findings. And if you are paying even the slightest bit of attention, you are probably scratching your head over the differences – the WIDE […]

Steve VancoreMarch 8, 2016

A pattern is forming here. According to the latest rounds of polls, Donald Trump’s lead in the upcoming GOP primary appears to be larger in polls conducted via auto-dialers (a.k.a. IVR technology) than those conducted via live operators. We saw late last month where the Quinnipiac numbers showed Trump up by a very strong 20 points over Marco […]

Steve VancoreFebruary 25, 2016

It’s not every day that we get two similar polls from reputable pollsters. Thursday was such a day! Early in the morning, we got one from Quinnipiac and then a few hours later, Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) released a similar instrument with similar — but different — findings. What’s different? Notably, in the Q-Pac […]

Steve VancoreFebruary 25, 2016

It’s not every day that we get two similar polls from reputable pollsters. Yesterday was such a day! Early Thursday morning, we got one from Quinnipiac and then a few hours later, Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) released a similar instrument with similar — but different — findings. What’s different? Notably, in the Q-Pac poll, […]

Steve VancoreFebruary 25, 2016

Quinnipiac’s latest poll is a good one, but with a slight methodology problem that could favor Donald Trump. What did the poll find? It found Trump nearly lapping what is left of the field and is 16-points ahead of the second closest candidate, Marco Rubio. If accurate (and we know the race will change between […]

Steve VancoreFebruary 25, 2016

Quinnipiac’s latest poll is a good one, but with a slight methodology problem that could favor Donald Trump. What did the poll find? It found Trump nearly lapping what is left of the field and is 16-points ahead of the second closest candidate, Marco Rubio. If accurate (and we know the race will change between […]

Steve VancoreFebruary 8, 2016

Can a poll have flawed methodologies and still be relatively “accurate?” Of course it can, much in the same way a dart can be close to its intended target even if the player throwing the dart does not use good form. It might be that way with the newly released Florida Southern College poll, which […]

Steve Vancore

A guide to whether a poll of the Fla. Governor’s race should be taken with a grain of salt

Salt Shaker Test: Quinnipiac showing Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton dead heat

Salt Shaker Test: Is Marco Rubio closing on Donald Trump?

Salt Shaker Test: Is Marco Rubio closing on Donald Trump?

Salt Shaker Test on new Monmouth poll: Donald Trump’s lead back down to earth

Salt Shaker Test: AIF poll says Donald Trump leads, but …

Salt Shaker Test: AIF Poll says Donald Trump leads, but …

Salt Shaker Test: Donald Trump leads large in latest Q-PAC poll

Salt Shaker Test: Evaluating Donald Trump’s large lead in latest Q-PAC poll

Applying salt shaker test to Florida Southern College poll