Here's Florida Politics' final poll of the Democratic primary for Florida governor - Florida Politics

Here’s Florida Politics’ final poll of the Democratic primary for Florida governor

Gwen Graham and Philip Levine have jostled for the top spot in the Democratic primary for Governor for months, but the final poll ahead of Tuesday’s election shows Graham is the clear front-runner for the nomination with a still-surging Andrew Gillum, not Levine, taking the No. 2 spot.

The St. Pete Polls survey, crowd-funded by Florida Politics’ readers, shows the former Congresswoman with 32 percent support among likely Democratic primary voters, followed by Gillum at 25 percent and Levine at 22 percent.

Palm Beach billionaire Jeff Greene is barely clinging to a double-digit share of the vote, though he plans to keep his TV ads on the airwaves until the clock hits double zeroes. Orlando-area businessman Chris King, who has rarely broken the 10 percent threshold throughout his campaign, is floundering at 2 percent.

The poll results show a strong break toward Graham compared with other recent measures in the five-way race, where Levine held a razor-thin lead among early voters and was statistically tied with Graham among Democrats who were waiting to cast their ballot.

According to the new poll, there has been a tectonic shift as more early votes have landed.

More than half of those polled said they’ve already voted, and among that crowd, Graham was the clear favorite. She was the pick for a full third of early voters, while Gillum again took second place at 27 percent. Levine, who has poured millions into his bid, took third-place among those who’ve ticked a box, with 23 percent supporting the former Miami Beach Mayor.

The pecking order is the same among Democrats who are waiting for Election Day to exercise their franchise — Graham leads Gillum 30-23 percent, followed by Levine at 21 percent.

There is a ray of hope for Gillum and Levine: 8 percent of Democrats are still undecided, and 5 percent say they’re backing a second-tier candidate. However, there’s little time left to pound the pavement, and those voters would have to break decisively for one of the other candidates to strip Graham of her queen of the hill status.

One noteworthy trend this go-around: Gillum is now dominating his opponents among black Democrats, 49 percent of whom say they’re backing the Tallahassee Mayor.

Gillum has not come close to that level of support among black voters thus far. At the beginning of the month, only 23 percent of black Democrats were backing him, giving him a 1-point lead over Levine. Now, no other candidate even breaks out of the high teens.

Among white Democrats, Graham held 41-23 percent lead over Levine, with Gillum pulling 15 percent.

Broken down by age, Gillum leads among millennial voters with one-third support and he’s also the top pick among Gen-Xers, with 36 percent backing him followed by Graham 10 percentage points behind. Graham holds a 2-point edge over Gillum, 30-28 percent, in the 50- to 69-year-old bracket, while voters over 70 preferred her by a 15-point margin.

The winner of Tuesday’s election will go up against either U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis or Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam in November. If polling on the GOP side of the race proves accurate, it looks as if DeSantis will win the Republican nomination with ease.

The St. Pete Polls survey was conducted through an automated phone call polling system on Aug. 25. It received 2,342 responses from Democratic voters who said they had voted or planned to vote in the primary election. The results were weighted to account for proportional differences between the respondents’ demographics and the demographics of the active Democratic primary voter population for the state of Florida.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.

Drew Wilson covers legislative campaigns and fundraising for SaintPetersBlog and FloridaPolitics.com. While at the University of Florida, Wilson was an editor at The Independent Florida Alligator and after graduation, he moved to Los Angeles to cover business deals for The Hollywood Reporter. Before joining Extensive Enterprises, Wilson covered the state economy and Legislature for LobbyTools.

30 Comments

  1. Gillum won my vote with a 100% progressive platform. “I will pass Medicare for All; I will repeal Stand Your Ground; I will ban assault weapons; I will legalize marijuana and use the money to give our teachers a raise; I will raise the minimum wage to $15.” He’s talking about a $50K salary for TEACHERS! Mister, you’re hired.

    1. I agree with all of that except the stand your ground. If someone is threating my family, me, or anyone I’m near I will take them down. And it should be my right to.

      1. What do you mean by threaten? Does threatening mean a threatening demeanor or words? Does threatening mean a overbearing or scary demand for something you or your family has? Does threatening mean having a gun on your person? Does threatening mean promising to shoot you if you don’t do what you are told? I find bushy beards threatening. Does that mean I should shoot the person because he won’t shave? Men and boys are being shot and killed because others find the color of their skin threatening. Threatening is a pretty fuzzy word for an excuse to shoot a person.

      2. Unfortunately, that law has been abused by people who claim they were threatened but weren’t. There are better ways to allow you to protect yourself and your family than empowering anyone to shoot anyone else and claim they were “standing their ground.”

    2. I love this platform as well. Unfortunately I live in FL and understand it won’t work in the general. Maybe someday…but today Graham has my vote

  2. Screw gillium and all the demacraps they couldn’t qin a coin toss in Florida if u gave them heads and tails and we dont want some POS repealing our stand your ground law its a great law but when a black boy gets killed they play the race card and how could they want gun control they shoot each other in there streets anyway give me a break we have been voting republican since 1998 and will keep on we love our guns and freedom and the NRA so it will be a republican not a demacrap that will drive our state in the whole again i hate demacraps there should be a demacrap purge once a year plus trump got 70% of gis vote from Florida we have the largest republican population just like the villages in Florida older white blue collar retired republican base it largeat and strongest plus dumb demacraps running on gun control and repeal the stand your ground law is political suicide because if you think u can run on gun control in this country and win your out of your mind plus Floridians enjoy the laxwd gun laws,stand your ground law and Florida makes 2.85 billion dollars on assault looking guns so that will make sure that we will have another demacrapic loser for the 21st year with a 21st republican govenor

    1. We can see how the Florida school system failed you. A Dem can fix the school system so your kind and kids (Lord I hope you don’t have any) can write more intelligent posts.

    2. Love that republican backed education. Thanks Dwayne, you made a very good point to vote blue for Florida.

    3. All I can see is a poster boy for gun control. Imagine the fact that moron is armed and stupid. Now imagine that person with guns. Any questions? Vote Democrats. “Responsible gun owner trigger locks and puts the guns in the combination safe. Then someone breaks in and they run across the hall to open the safe, with the trigger lock combination guard on the gun. Then dial the combination…” You should not have guns mister. Talking about a killing waiting to happen for some damned stupid reason. Going to shoot me for disagreeing with you? Making me right by your actions. There is no question what good is. You know and that will be the harshness of your own judgement. Change your ways for the betterment of you and for those around you. For all the reasons considered good.

    4. Racists like you are what ruins Florida-duh (& also guarantees we will stay a state of dumb asses, educationally)

    5. So sad. Some people seem to care only about are there own narrow minded interests. How about care and concern for our environment and education of all our children.

    6. Wow…this ignorant way of thinking is presisly why the “Stand Your Ground” law should be abolished. Ignorance of this kind is very dangerous. Why so much hate… Sad. Very sad.

  3. If a black man were to win the role of Florida’s Governor, then cuckerly guys like Dwayne Gordon would collectively lose their minds.

    Heck, Dee-Wayne can’t even spell the future Governor’s name correctly.

  4. Irony? Composing a message on a device with a built-in English dictionary and grammar checker while failing to use said tools.

    Free advice: Confirm your voter registration form was completed correctly or your local board of elections might have just placed it into the circular file.

    Voted for Gillum! The SURGE IS REAL!

  5. Dwayne, spellchecker is free and you should avail yourself of it sometime. And regardless of whether it’s Graham or Gillum that get the Democratic nod. Both of them tremendously out poll DeSantis & Putnam. Get used to the idea of a Democrat in the governor’s mansion.

  6. Give up Dems, you will not win anything, especially the governorship. Here’s why: In 2014, There was a Libertarian candidate who earned 3.8% of the vote for governor. This year there is no Libertarian on the ballot. I am a registered Libertarian and will do all within my power to stop you gun grabbing fascists. Most of us feel the same way. 223,356 Libertarian votes in 2014 and guess what? This year it’s over 300,000. We will swing the election this year because nobody in their right mind would vote for a draconian gun grabbing moron!

  7. No Libertarian on the ballot this year. 223,356 voters will now vote GOP to stop you gun graboids.

  8. It would have helped if Pinellas County would have addresses it precinct changes. I showed at mine, and they informed me after several minutes standing there, (there were 4 voters in there and all the poll workers at precinct 314,) which is the number on my voter ID, and when sent from one person to another, (the supervisor who waved me off, she was too busy, reading), only to be told I was at the wrong precinct. I showed them the issued ID, and was told it had been changed! When were they going to tell me. I had my constitutional right to vote taken away from me. SHAME SHAME. SHAME. SHAME on you.

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