Poll: Dead heat between Donna Deegan, Daniel Davis in Jax Mayor race

New polling in the Jacksonville mayoral race shows that Donna Deegan’s 15-point lead in March has vanished.

A survey released Monday from the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab shows Deegan with a marginal lead over Daniel Davis, 48% to 47%, with 5% undecided.

That lead is well within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3.8%, and the latest indication that Davis is managing to bring Republicans and NPAs to his side who were not there in the First Election in March.

“We’re looking at another razor-thin race that will undoubtedly come down to turnout,” said Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director and UNF professor of political science. “Both candidates will have a chance to address the issues important to voters in Thursday’s debate on UNF’s campus, and it’ll be important for each of them to energize their bases to get to the polls in May.”

The UNF poll assumes an R+4 electorate, matching the March election; the unweighted responses are R+1.5, however.

Whatever the weighting, it also suggests that partisan contours are shaping this race. While Deegan has support of 92% of Democrats, Davis has the support of 89% of Republicans. NPAs in the survey are still breaking Deegan’s way, 53% to 42%.

The gender split is as even as it gets. Deegan has 51% of women, and Davis has 51% of men. Both candidates have 44% support among the opposite sex in this survey.

Davis dominates among White voters, with 62% support against 34% for Deegan. Hispanic voters are also breaking Davis’ way, 58% to 42%. Meanwhile, 88% of Black voters back Deegan.

Age cohorts are split among the candidates, meanwhile. Deegan leads by 39 points with voters under 25 years old, the least likely group to turn out. She also leads by 17 points among voters between the ages of 55 and 64. Meanwhile, Davis and Deegan are tied with voters between 25 and 34, with Davis leading among voters between 35 and 49 years of age, and by 11 points with those 65 and older.

The live-dial poll was in the field April 10-14, the first public poll of the race. A Frederick Polls survey commissioned by the Deegan campaign showed the Democrat up 54% to 46%, but it’s likely the UNF poll will be taken more seriously by neutral observers.