Poll: Donna Deegan leads Daniel Davis in Jacksonville mayoral race, 54% to 46%

deegan davis sbs
The survey shows Republicans are crossing over to back the Democratic change agent.

Donna Deegan is still well-positioned to be the first Democrat elected as Jacksonville Mayor in twelve years, according to a new poll commissioned by her campaign

The survey from Frederick Polls shows 54% of those likely voters in the May 16 General Election support the former newscaster and CEO of the DONNA Foundation, with 46% backing Republican Daniel Davis, the current CEO of the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce.

The memo calls the 8-point advantage a “decisive” lead, contending that “with every public poll during the Primary campaign and her +14 lead over Davis in the March 21st election, Donna Deegan continues to be the clear front-runner to be Jacksonville’s next Mayor.”

The 8-point lead, which was in the field last Monday and Tuesday, is outside the margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

The sample actually accounts for even more of a Republican turnout advantage than was seen in the March election, where Democrats had a 4-point advantage.

“This +8 margin is striking because it comes from a poll sample skewed to a +6 Republican party registration advantage — 48% Republican, 42% Democrat. Actual registration for all Duval County/Jacksonville’s voters is +4 Democrat,” Frederick Polls asserts.

Some Republicans who supported defeated First Election candidates LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber and Al Ferraro are supporting Deegan in this survey.

“Donna gains just over 20% ‘crossover’ support from Primary voters of each of three non-run-off Republicans — Ferraro, Cumber, and Frank Keasler — who captured 26% of the March 21st vote. Republican Davis ran millions of dollars in attack ads against both Cumber and Ferraro,” Frederick Polls contends.

While defeated Democrat Audrey Gibson did not endorse Deegan in the General Election, that doesn’t seem to matter, as 92% of her voters are backing Deegan in this survey.

Davis faces a likability problem, according to this poll: “Donna is rated 54% favorable — 16 points higher than Daniel Davis at 38%. Davis is rated net negative among Primary voters of Republicans Cumber and Ferraro.”

The survey also suggests Davis is yoked to a status quo, from which 68% of poll respondents want change.

“Chamber of Commerce head, Daniel Davis, with his establishment support by current Mayor Lenny Curry, is swimming against this powerful CHANGE tide. Davis’ voters are the only ones of all six candidates (representing 75% of the March 21st vote) who support continuing Jacksonville’s direction.”

The General Election is May 16, but votes by mail are already trickling in, meaning that Davis is running out of time to change perceptions, if the survey is accurate.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has written for FloridaPolitics.com since 2014. He is based in Northeast Florida. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


  • Big Al

    April 10, 2023 at 1:42 pm

    Davis is one of the least likable candidates that I have ever come across. Couple that with a lack of deep thinking and the people that he has surrounded himself with and it is easy to understand why Deegan is sitting on such a huge lead.

    • Dot

      April 10, 2023 at 5:02 pm

      excellent analysis

    • Robert

      April 10, 2023 at 9:34 pm

      Seriously? Deegan knows absolutely nothing about running a city government, especially one the size of Jacksonville, , where decisions involve millions of dollars. She made be “leading” in the polls, but let’s hope that’s just a result of name recognition because she has no experience running anything.

      • Dot

        April 11, 2023 at 9:58 am

        And that’s why you bring others to the table to give assistance and advice. The mayor’s office requires many people to operate effectively, not just the Mayor.

    • Mark Howell

      April 16, 2023 at 3:50 pm

      If Donna Deegan wins, our city is gone! She is a liberal, just like AOC, just like Cory Bush! Please think before you vote!!!!

    • Doc Scott

      April 23, 2023 at 9:57 pm

      The New Pork Chop Gang is dangerous to the moral compass of this country holistically. ignorance, corruption and racial hate by old caucasian males threat all that is good for America. Women Rights Matters.


    April 10, 2023 at 3:00 pm

    Dean Black and Alexander Pancake, this is what you get for running negative campaigns all over the city with Tim Baker. NO REPUBLICAN will support you from Ferraro or Cumber.

    Dean Black it’s time for you to resign and go back to black cow trail you fat, disgusting lying piece of cow dung.


  • Dan Davis is TOAST

    April 10, 2023 at 3:01 pm





    April 10, 2023 at 4:09 pm




  • Terry Gunderson

    April 10, 2023 at 4:11 pm

    This guy is truly lame, can’t do anything and has the charisma of a dead rabbit.

    Deegan, sorry Ron, bad choice here!

    • NoMoreBaker

      April 10, 2023 at 6:10 pm

      Now that was funny!

      Maybe Daniel will hire Lenny when he gets back to the Chamber.


    April 10, 2023 at 4:22 pm

    If you want to see Dean Black and Alexander the Fat Pantinakis Cry, May 16th around 8PM. Attend Daniel Davis’ loser event!

    NPA Voters BLUE!

  • Holly Henderson and family

    April 10, 2023 at 4:43 pm

    Diehard Republicans here…haven’t seen Daniel come to anything in our area, just endless mail pieces.

    Guess the Republicans gave up on getting out the vote.

    WE are voting for Donna Deegan!

    • Mark Howell

      April 16, 2023 at 3:52 pm

      Ok, vote for Deegan, you will regret for the rest of your life. She will turn this city into a mini Chicago! Please WAKE UP!!!

  • Dot

    April 10, 2023 at 5:08 pm

    Donna Deegan speaks to “Unity” and wants to be the “Change Agent” for our city. It is definitely time for a change for the positive. We will get what we’ve got with Davis, aren’t we tired of what we’ve got?

    • Mark Howell

      April 16, 2023 at 3:55 pm

      Deegan is a LIBERAL! She will turn our city into a little Chicago! Please people, THINK before you vote. Look what liberals are doing to our country, if this is what you want, vote Deegan.

      • Dot

        April 16, 2023 at 6:46 pm

        I’ve actually had Donna Deegan at my house for a discussion. We touched on several hot topics as she knows I’m a registered Republican. She knows that if she is truly talking “Unity” in our city government, that she needs to bring all parties to the her table for advice and council. She agreed that is indeed how to bring our city together. She’s tired of the same tired bunch of people running our city. We have a Republican City Council currently so the balance of power is in place. I’m in her corner and will hold her accountable for what she has told me she will do. We need a change, and she’s it.

  • Seber Newsome III

    April 10, 2023 at 7:57 pm

    I do not like Davis, but, I dislike Deegan even more. I cannot stand black lives matter, and Deegan is in love with them and the crazies in the Democratic Party.. So, it is picking the lesser of two evils, and Davis is the lesser, so, Davis it is

    • Pridegoesb4destruction

      April 10, 2023 at 8:49 pm


      So what does the Irish Shipbuilder, Thomas Andrews and Tim Baker’s mayoral candidate, Daniel Davis have in common?

      A movie was made about this.
      Republicans can thank the current mayor, Brian Hughes, Tim Baker, Wiles and Co for this unforced error.

    • Robert

      April 10, 2023 at 9:40 pm


    • Mark McGuffney

      April 11, 2023 at 7:16 am

      Davis is establishment.
      Donna is not. Also, if she wins the mayoral race, she can’t get any policy done. City Council is Republican.

      It’s OK to vote for Deegan.

    • Doc Scott

      April 23, 2023 at 10:45 pm

      Davis has a political track record of 20-plus years of partisan politics. How can you compare the two? Donna is booths on the ground neighborhood citywide, and Daniel drives around in a green golf cart in his million-dollar community supporting classism. Please remove the partisan politics from your eyes. It’s not about politics but the children’s future that matters.

  • Raul Espinosa

    April 10, 2023 at 9:17 pm

    Voters should demand through the media and through the moderators at the next public debate, that both candidates express their positions and what they intend to do to end the continuing discrimination toward underserved small businesses (DBEs). The last two Disparity Studies that Jacksonville was required, by law, to undergo, at a cost of more than $1 Million each in taxpayers fund had confirmed that DBEs had been discriminated against in public contracting. The last two Mayors and the City Council, frankly, have done nothing. The recommendations offered by both the Disparity Study itself and by a coalition of organizations representing those discriminated groups were ignored and filed away. Jaccksonville and major cities in Florida that have had to undergo Disparity Studies because of alleged discrimination and favoritism in public contractjng have been guilty of the ‘old boys network syndrom.’ This is not an allegation, but a FACT! Both candidates for Mayor and City Council MUST be challenged to divolge their positions and plans to end, once and for all, the proven discriminatory practices in contracting in the First Coast! The Fairness in Procurement (FPA) Think Tank which at the time was heavily involved on the subject published a report calling for more transparency and tracking of public contracts as required by Public Law 95-507. The Legal Tool that is been used is called ‘ set-asides’ This is been done at the Federal Level involving $700 Billion, but NOT at the state and local government level. When you lump all sectors, fhe total becomes $3 Trillion! I will end this post with a quote that sumarizes my point, ‘Set-asides must be tracked so they can be managed and allowef to achieve their objective.”

  • Fed up Conservative

    April 11, 2023 at 9:53 am

    I’m a Lifelong Conservative Republican and will be voting for Donna this go around. The corruption behind the Davis campaign team will be the end of the Republican Party in Duval County.

    Has no one questioned how Alexander Pantinakis’ unqualified wife got a job with the Duval County Tax Collector? Or have we forgotten the campaign fraud committed by Alex in the past?

    A vote for Davis is a vote for more of the same back room brokered deals for 8 more years. The real conservatives remember the 9 cent gas tax approved during an economic recession without any say from the public.

    Dean Black is a complete failure, the incompetency is rather shocking. While we knew he wasn’t the smartest person in the room we didn’t know he lacked integrity.

    Good Riddance to the Duval Republican Executive Committee. You have failed and continue to fail by pushing unqualified candidates into office.

    • Screw the GOP

      April 11, 2023 at 10:03 pm

      I voted against Dean and Pancake Pantinakis.

      We hate them too

  • Patinakis the Bald

    April 12, 2023 at 1:51 pm

    I checked into your comment, she does work there. No wonder she married the fat pancake, needed a job, just like his crooked father. I forget his name, but the family has 0 genetic genes for good looks.

    Without Tim Baker, Pancake would still be a loser at the radio station. Good thing we all know who he really is, back when AG used to chase him around in 2016 for trying to block out minority voices in the State Attorney’s Race!

  • Enough Negativity

    April 20, 2023 at 9:04 am

    I am just tired of all the negativity and that is under DAVIS in the dictionary of Jacksonville.

  • Lynda McHone

    April 21, 2023 at 7:05 pm

    I fail to understand why reading the news for 25 years makes you qualified to be mayor of Jacksonville. Supporting Gilliam, having an extra marital affair in broad daylight, and supporting the destruction of city property and the limiting of police funds make her a “no” for me.

  • Dr. Bob Abene

    April 23, 2023 at 11:54 pm

    If you want to keep the current concerns regarding safety, killings, our health and wellness ignored then you would vote for Daniel Davis…If you vote for Donna Deegan you are voting for safer, and more supportively involved and active communities because this is what Ms. Donna Deegan believes is right for ALL of us living here in Jacksonville Florida!!

  • Doc Scott

    April 24, 2023 at 7:56 am

    When discussing the mayoral race in Jacksonville, the news media is biased against Deegan. Deegan bring this city together. Davis is a divider. The Pork Chop Gang owned the media in Florida and Jacksonville. Daniel Davis’s track record shows 20-plus years of partisan politics, nepotism, racism, greed, and sexism. The sheriff should be recalled for his partisan politics and a disgrace to the city and uniform. The sheriff’s job and duty is to represent our citizens, not a party. Davis and Water are evil for Jacksonville’s future. Shame, shame, shame on the media. Ethics is dead for a dollar. @aaertt

Comments are closed.


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