Alvin Brown v. Lenny Curry: Takeaways

Calling his first-place showing “a great victory,” Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown holds a 5-point lead over challenger Lenny Curry as the two well-funded candidates now advance to a May runoff.

Speaking to supporters Tuesday nighty, Brown made a point of emphasizing the bipartisanship of his administration and supporters.

“This isn’t about Republicans or Democrats or Independents, this is about Jacksonville!” he said to the crowd assembled at the Jacksonville Landing.

Partisanship,, though, certainly played a role in this “first” unitary election, and will again in two months.  What do the results show?

THE TAKEAWAYS

The Bases Turned Out

Both the Brown and Curry operations can claim victory in turning out their core supporters. Although turnout across the city barely topped 30 percent overall, the combined GOTV effort still puts both in contention for May. Curry rallied the faithful with an appearance alongside Texas Gov. Rick Perry — Brown did with an event including U.S. Reps. Corrine Brown of Jacklsonville and U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina. The ground game across vast Duval paid off, and the big money has yet to be spent.

The Bishop Factor

City Councilman Bill Bishop, despite having only a fraction of the funding and muscle behind Brown and Curry’s campaigns, tallied an impressive near-17 percent showing.  Drawing a Duval-specific coalition of moderate Republicans and liberals who liked his stance to cover LGBTs in the city’s human rights ordinance, Bishop’s endorsement — should he offer it — will be key.  The question now is, where will Bishop’s supporters go? Will they come home to Brown, roll the dice on Curry, or sit it out?

Whither the HRO?

Speaking of the human rights ordinance, moderate Republican candidates who supported it faced, in some races, strong headwinds. Socially conservative Republicans had a pretty good night. A window into May strategies?

Duval Dems See Progress

Speaking at the Brown rally, County Democratic Party Chairman Neil Henrichsen called the citywide results a victory for his party in a traditionally red corner of the state.

“I think the numbers for Democrats are just tremendous,” he said. “Democratic candidates came out on top in the races for mayor, sheriff, and we came very close with a terrific candidate for Supervisor of Elections. Also, in four At-Large City Council seats Democrats won tonight. We are thrilled with the results.”

Still, most of those contests now advance to a runoff, with the county’s influential GOP power brokers heavily invested in trying to retain the upper hand.

And the biggest runoff of all — between Brown and Curry — will feature two battle-tested campaigners with top operatives pushing hard to what many expect to be a photo finish.

Said UNF political science professor Matt Corrigan, “I think both of these guys are relishing the battle ahead.”