A.G. Gancarski
Looking at the 2015 Jacksonville Campaign, Kevin Cate asserts that Democrats can learn lessons for the future. One important lesson: outspend your opponent 2 to 1 on TV, as Lenny Curry did Alvin Brown.
Cate contends that Brown suffered from a spending deficit, as well as from a “self-inflicted late start to the campaign,” both of which contributed to his defeat.
“Total TV/radio paid comms in the Jacksonville mayoral election: $2.8 million for Lenny Curry (17,000 GRPs), and $1.48 mil (8,600 GRPs) for Alvin Brown. In other words, a very light consumer of TV/radio commercials was exposed to at least 170 Curry ads and 86 Brown ads. A spend comparison, in ’14 Scott spent $5.7 mil (35,851 GRPs) compared to Crist’s $2.43 mil (14,667 GRPs) in the Jacksonville DMA,” Cate wrote on Twitter, and reiterated in conversation.
Cate, who was not involved in the Brown campaign, was on the winning side of one Jacksonville campaign: that of Tommy Hazouri, who cruised to a victory in an At Large Council Race against Geoff Youngblood. Cate was responsible for a TV ad that looked decidedly mayoral, showing Hazouri messaging around public safety themes, by walking with cops and talking about keeping families safe.
“My firm brings an understanding of the market. We read local news, and look at polling. In this campaign, Curry was very successful in bringing crime to the forefront,” Cate said, adding that it came down to one elemental message.
“Tommy Hazouri has a proven record, but none of that matters if you don’t feel safe at night,” Cate said, reiterating the message in the ad. “Elections are about the future.”
That, ironically, was a line Alvin Brown used in the waning days of his re-election campaign. The future went on without him though.
One of the things that led to Brown’s defeat was a surfeit of positive earned media.
“Earned media is important,” said Cate, “What is the cost to Alvin Brown of negative coverage about a fight with a TV station?”
Cate’s reference is to Brown’s contretemps with Action News Jax, which asked him combative questions, which led to him not committing to a debate on the news outlet until hours before airtime.
Cate comes to Jacksonville next Thursday to talk about the value of earned media, as it related to the 2014 and 2015 campaigns, and to 2016 and Jacksonville’s role in that donnybrook.
“I teach a class on earned media. TV is still king; where the eyeballs go,” he said.
That said, there is an inexorable evolution, where social, earned, and paid media combine into one channel, a self-reinforcing loop in which earned media can be parlayed into social media shares and then into bought media, and back again.
Even so, the ability to commit to media buys matters.
“Brian Hughes,” Cate said. “I can’t say enough good things about how aggressive and committed he was. It showed on Election Day, But if Lenny Curry doesn’t outspend Alvin Brown 2 to 1 on television, Alvin Brown wins.”
