Melissa Ross
Later this month we’ll learn U.S. Supreme Court decisions on two of the highest-profile cases in years, maybe even decades: Obergefell v. Hodges, the same-sex marriage case, and King v. Burwell, the decision about whether to uphold or invalidate a provision of the Affordable Care Act.
High court watchers tell FloridaPolitics.com that the odds of the nine upholding same-sex marriage seem slightly greater than giving a thumbs-up to Obamacare in its entirety, and Florida stands to be the most-affected state depending on which way the decision goes.
“This will be the place where the health care issue plays out more vividly than anywhere else,” says Greg Pingree, professor at Florida Coastal School of Law.
Pingree made his comments during a Thursday appearance on WJCT’s First Coast Connect.
“If the decision goes against Obamacare, Florida will be the heaviest hit,” he said. “Florida is a bellwether state, like Ohio and a few others. It’s a purple state, the population is growing, and it’s the state with the highest number of insurance signups. This is a state where the presidential candidates will be watching this very closely. It’ll have a huge impact either way the ruling goes, but more of an impact on the negative side because of how it will look,” he said.
Professor Nicholas Seabrook of UNF, our other in-studio guest, concurred, and pointed out the timeliness of two 2016 presidential contenders, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, both hailing from Florida.
“I think the reaction of those two will be quite telling in terms of what we might expect in Florida, if those subsidies are invalidated by the Supreme Court. There will be a lot of pressure on politicians in Florida at the prospect of such a large number of residents losing their insurance,” he said.
“Whether that pressure will be enough to persuade opinion leaders like Bush, Rubio, even Governor (Rick) Scott. How they react to that political pressure and to what extent they craft a fix will be something to watch.”
With health care funding already on the front burner in Florida, Pingree said a negative ruling on the ACA will only turn up the heat.
“The scramble gets even more intense. Florida has two major candidates for the presidency, a governor adamantly opposed, and yet, a record number of people who’ve registered at the federal level.”
In other words, once again, national issues can still be boiled down to this essence: Florida, Florida, Florida.
