Mitch Perry
Donald Trump leads Jeb Bush by a 21-17 percent margin in the GOP presidential race in Florida, according to a new Quinnipiac poll released on Thursday.
The Trump surge in Florida was first reflected in a St. Pete Polls survey conducted three weeks ago, and has been maintained in subsequent Florida polls. In a similar Quinnipiac poll conducted in Florida in June, Bush was at 20 percent support, while Trump was at just 3 percent.
Marco Rubio and Dr. Ben Carson are tied for third in Florida in the new survey with 11 percent. Ted Cruz and Carly Florina are tied for fifth at 7 percent. Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul and Scott Walker are tied at 4 percent. John Kasich is at 3 percent. Bobby Jindal and Chris Christie are at 1 percent.
On the Democratic Party side, 4‘s recent problems haven’t hurt against fellow Democrats, but they do hurt her against Republicans. Clinton leads all Democrats in the primary with 48 percent support, down from 64 percent support in a Q poll in June. Vermont independent social democrat Sen. Bernie Sanders is at 15 percent. Vice President Joe Biden is at 11 percent. Biden is reportedly considering a run for the nomination, but is not a candidate at this time.
The most noticeable slippage in support for Clinton in the survey is in the head to head match-ups with Florida Republicans Bush and Rubio
In a one-on-one match with Bush, he leads Clinton, 49-38 percent. Bush did lead Clinton in a similar survey in March, but only by 3 percentage points, 45-42 percent. Bush has never led Clinton by this large of a lead in Florida.
Rubio leads Clinton by an even larger margin, 51-39 percent. That’s the first time Rubio has ever led Clinton in Florida. In February, the former U.S. secretary of state led the junior Florida senator by 10 percentage points, 49-39 percent.
And Trump himself leads Clinton, 43-41 percent.
Quinnipiac shows that if Biden were to get into the race, he would lose to Rubio and Bush, but defeat Trump.
Biden leads Trump, 45-42 percent. But Bush leads Biden, 51-38 percent. And Rubio leads Biden, 48-42 percent.
In a three-way race between Clinton, Bush and Trump running as an independent, Clinton win narrowly win, 37-36 percent. Trump would be third at 19 percent.
For the first time ever since Quinnipiac has been conducting this survey over the last year, Clinton’s personal approval numbers are upside down. Only 37 percent look at her favorably, while 55 percent do not.
And only one-third of those surveyed believe Clinton is honest and trustworthy (32 percent). Two-thirds (64 percent) say she is not.
When asked whether Trump has the right kind of temperament and personality to handle an international crisis as president, 64 percent say he does not. Twenty-nine percent say he does.
The Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,03 Florida voters from Aug. 7 to 18 with a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points. The survey includes 477 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points and 345 Democrats with a margin of error of +/=5.3 percentage point.
