Peter Schorsch
Eleven months before the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump is the undisputed leader in the Republican field, as Dr. Ben Carson, in a virtual tie with Trump four weeks ago, drops to third place, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today.
On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton widens her lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders to 60 – 30 percent, compared to 53 – 35 percent in a November 4 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University Poll. Martin O’Malley has 2 percent, with 6 percent undecided.
Trump gets 27 percent of Republican voters today, with 17 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio, 16 percent each for Carson and Sen. Ted Cruz and 5 percent for former Gov. Jeb Bush. No other candidate tops 3 percent, with 8 percent undecided.
Last month, Trump had 24 percent, with 23 percent for Carson.
Among Republicans, 26 percent of voters say they “would definitely not support” Trump, with 21 percent who would not back Bush.
“It doesn’t seem to matter what he says or who he offends, whether the facts are contested or the ‘political correctness’ is challenged, Donald Trump seems to be wearing Kevlar,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“Dr. Ben Carson, moving to center stage just one month ago, now needs some CPR. The Doctor sinks. The Donald soars. The GOP, 11 months from the election, has to be thinking, ‘This could be the guy.’
“Secretary Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders have to be hoping Trump is the GOP’s guy.”
American voters shift to Clinton as the Democrat gains ground against Republicans:
- 47 – 41 percent over Trump, compared to 46 – 43 percent November 4;
- Clinton at 45 percent to Rubio’s 44 percent, compared to a 46 – 41 percent Rubio lead last month;
- Clinton tops Cruz 47 – 42 percent, compared to Cruz at 46 percent to Clinton’s 43 percent last month;
- Clinton at 46 percent to Carson’s 43 percent compared to Carson’s 50 – 40 percent lead last month. Sanders does just as well, or even better, against top Republicans:
- Topping Trump 49 – 41 percent;
- Getting 44 percent to Rubio’s 43 percent;
- Beating Cruz 49 – 39 percent;
- Leading Carson 47 – 41 percent.Clinton has a negative 44 – 51 percent favorability rating. Other favorability ratings are:
- Negative 35 – 57 percent for Trump;
- 40 – 33 percent for Carson;
- 44 – 31 percent for Sanders;
- 37 – 28 percent for Rubio;
- 33 – 33 percent for Cruz.
American voters say 60 – 36 percent that Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. Trump is not honest and trustworthy, voters say 59 – 35 percent. Sanders gets the best honesty grades among top candidates, 59 – 28 percent, with Carson at 53 – 34 percent, Rubio at 49 – 33 percent and Cruz at 43 – 39 percent.
All American voters say 63 – 32 percent, including 69 – 27 percent among independent voters, that Clinton would have a good chance of beating the Republican nominee in a head-to- head matchup.
Voters are divided 46 – 49 percent on whether Trump would have a good chance of beating the Democratic nominee, with independent voters divided 47 – 48 percent.
From November 23 – 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,453 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 672 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 573 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.
