St. Leo University Florida Presidential Poll out shows Donald Trump with 30.5 % — Marco Rubio 15% — Jeb Bush 14%

Donald Trump

Donald Trump continues to lead in the GOP presidential race in Florida, according to a new poll released Wednesday by St. Leo University Polling Institute.

The NYC businessman is at 30.6 percent, up nearly 5 percent points from a similar survey conducted in October. Marco Rubio is in second place with 15 percent, a drop of over 6 points over the past two months. Jeb Bush is at 14.3 percent, a drop of 1 percent since October.

Ben Carson slips to fourth place with 10.9 percent, compared to 14.7 percent in October. And Ted Cruz is now at 10.2 percent in the poll, up from 4.9 percent in October.

It should be noted that only 147 Republicans were contacted in this survey. Overall, 531 Floridians were polled by the institute from November 29 to December 3, 2015; a national survey of 1,007 adults was conducted in parallel during the same time frame. The margin of error for answers from the above subgroup is plus or minus 8 percentage points.

On the Democratic side, it’s not much of a contest at all. Hillary Clinton gets 58.8 percent of the vote to Bernie Sanders 26.9 percent. The margin of error on Democratic likely voter responses was plus or minus 7.5 percentage points. The subgroup numbered 160.

When asked who would be the best candidate would “likely mount the strongest and most effective effort against terrorists worldwide while protecting Americans at home?” the winner was Trump, with 25.2 percent support. Clinton was a close second with 22.8 percent. No other candidate received more than 10 percent support.

However, Clinton leads every Republican in the survey, and would also win in a three-way race with Trump running as an independent.

  • Clinton, 48.9 percent, vs. Trump, 41.2 percent.
  • Clinton, 48.9 percent, vs. Rubio, 41.2 percent.
  • Clinton, 51.2 percent, vs. Carson, 39.1 percent.
  • Clinton, 47.3 percent, vs. Bush, 37.9 percent.
  • Clinton, 53 percent, vs. Cruz, 34.7 percent
  • Clinton, 55.2 percent, vs. former Hewlett-Packard executive Carly Fiorina, 29.7 percent.

Three-Candidate Presidential Race Projections from Florida

Likely voters in Florida were also asked whom they would choose if there were a three-way presidential ballot with Trump running an independent candidacy, with Clinton running on the Democratic ticket, and with each of the major current Republican candidates emerging as the party nominee. In all scenarios, the results broke in Clinton’s favor, shown below in descending order:

  • Clinton, 47.5 percent; Fiorina, 12.9 percent; Trump, 30.7 percent.
  • Clinton, 46 percent; Cruz, 21.3 percent; Trump, 26 percent.
  • Clinton, 45.5 percent; Carson, 20.3 percent; Trump, 27.7 percent,
  • Clinton, 44.8 percent; Rubio, 21.8 percent; Trump, 28.2 percent.
  • Clinton, 41.8 percent; Bush, 19.1 percent; Trump, 33.4 percent.

Mitch Perry

Mitch Perry has been a reporter with Extensive Enterprises since November of 2014. Previously, he served five years as political editor of the alternative newsweekly Creative Loafing. Mitch also was assistant news director with WMNF 88.5 FM in Tampa from 2000-2009, and currently hosts MidPoint, a weekly talk show, on WMNF on Thursday afternoons. He began his reporting career at KPFA radio in Berkeley and is a San Francisco native who has lived in Tampa since 2000. Mitch can be reached at [email protected]

One comment

  • Christopher M. Kennard

    December 12, 2015 at 7:03 pm

    In the last election, 2014, the Florida Democratic Party insiders tried to pull a fast one over their own Democratic party members when debates between former Republican Charlie Crist and Democrat Nan Rich were not permitted to occur, despite strong desire by the members to hear debates between the two candidates. The Florida Party, in essence, performed the same function the Republican Party took care of by gerrymandering voting district lines to force Republicans to support “Party” chosen candidates, only. The Democrats tried this line of political discipline forced upon it’s members but failed when vast numbers of Democratic voters did not bother to vote since the Democrats “appointed” a Republican turned Democrat puppet, Charlie Christ whom no one really wanted in office. Now, the national Democratic Party is trying to pull a fast one over Democrats before the Democratic Primary election but having “friendly” mass media supporters cut out all mention of Bernie Sanders, and how a new poll displays the truth of the matter . . . Democratic voters do not trust Hillary or the party insiders at this point, because too much questionable manuvering has taken place behind the scenes with big money donations buying Hillary Clinton’s designated “democratic” sponsored Presidential candidate. However, voters may not permit such political corruption to take place this time around; too much is at stake to trust an untrustworthy woman who seems to have a poor sense of “karma”, “ethic” or “Love.” Bernie Sanders on the other hand is wholly trustworthy; has a political record and voting record that amply displays that he is a candidate of the people, for the people who will be elected by people like me, the 99% who are aware of what is going on and working on the grassroots level to increase voter support in the Democratic primary election coming up in three months, this next March, 2016. Folks like myself who are registered Independents will re-register for the primary election, and never switch back after Bernie Sanders is nominated to be the Democratic candidate for President. It may become something to be proud of again . . . a Bernie Sanders Democrat, just as many of us supported Barack Obama for President for excellent reasons . . . one of which was Hillary Clinton, a well paid, bought and sold representative of the Wall Street fat cats who play and pay for both political parties. Just follow the money . . . it becomes easy to see how a small group of super-wealthy can control both the Democrats and the Republicans, as well as individually funding each of the separate candidates of both parties to make it appear as if some real “choice” was offered to U. S. voters. Once in a blue moon, a Bernie Sanders comes along and people see they still may have an honest chance . . . and we act upon it . . . one by one, family, friends, neighbors . . . one voter at a time . . . our numbers are growing to become ever more vast.

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