Peter Schorsch
Sunburn – The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics.
By Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Jenna Buzzacco-Foerster, Mitch Perry, Ryan Ray, and Jim Rosica.
New Hampshire voters go to the polls today, in what is being predicting to be a record 550,00 cast in the first-in-the-nation’s presidential primary.
Secretary of State Bll Gardner believes 282,000 Republican ballots will be cast, a record for the GOP, with 268,000 Democratic ballots, which would the second highest, behind the Obama-Clinton 2008 race.
What’s to be determined is how a potential snow event could affect turnout.
There is still a tremendous amount of those voters who have maintained in recent days that they were undecided. According to a WMUR-TV/CNN poll released Monday afternoon, 31 percent of Republican primary voters have not made a final decision about who they will support on primary day, while 7 percent of Republican voters could not say who they would vote for if the election were held today.
The survey also remained consistent with every other poll published in New Hampshire in recent months – with Donald Trump in the lead.
Curiously, no other Republican is attacking him on the local airwaves. Instead, the super PACS are running ads in heavy rotation taking shots primarily at Marco Rubio and John Kasich.
Kasich has been running a uniquely upbeat campaign, and his best debate performance of the season could be the impetus to catapult him into a potential second place finish (where he placed in a Monmouth University poll released on Monday). The other governors running – Jeb Bush and Chris Christie – have invested large resources into New Hampshire, and anything lower than third place for either man will be a huge disappointment.
Rubio had been the man on the rise in the past week, following his better than expected third place finish in Iowa. The media has had a field day in the past few days since he melted down vs. a withering Christie attack during Saturday night’s debate, it’s uncertain if that has truly stalled his “marcomentum.”
Then there’s Ted Cruz, the only man in the race with a victory already in his pocket. His poll numbers are all over the lot leading into the contest – he could come in anywhere from 2nd to 5th place
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Establishment have gone all in to try to erode the large lead that Bernie Sanders has amassed in New Hampshire, located next to his home state of Vermont.
A Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll released over the weekend has Clinton within 7 points, 51-44%. That’s an outlier, however, with all other polls showing the self-declared Democratic socialist with a double-digit lead.
The rhetoric has grown increasingly bitter between these two rivals, with Bill Clinton blasting Sanders and his supporters over the weekend for what he said were inaccurate and “sexist” attacks against Mrs. Clinton.
On Monday, Sanders kicked off the first of three rallies by asking voters if they were ready to make a statement to the rest of the nation – indeed the world- by electing him to prepare to “lead this country in a political revolution.”
WHAT WOULD – AND WOULD NOT – BE SURPRISING IN NEW HAMPSHIRE via Kyle Kondik, Geoffrey Skelley and Larry J. Sabato of Sabato’s Crystal Ball – SURPRISE: Trump outperforms his polling … Trump’s loss in Iowa showed deficiencies in his campaign. He did not have an adequate ground game and he has ignored traditional campaign tools and tactics. NOT A SURPRISE: Rubio finishes inside the top three … Rubio appeared to be rising in New Hampshire until his poor debate performance … However, let’s not overreact here. There’s little hard evidence to suggest Rubio is sinking in New Hampshire or elsewhere. SURPRISE: Christie finishes ahead of Kasich and Bush … for Kasich, 17 percent and third place might be a good showing. By not allowing Bush or Christie to get to his left, Kasich has positioned himself to do best among the three Republican candidates with gubernatorial experience … SURPRISE: Sanders wins by less than 10 percentage points or by 20 or more … we expect Sanders is most likely to win the Granite State by double digits, but not much higher than the midteens. SURPRISE: Cruzfinishes below the top four … Cruz isn’t going to win New Hampshire — he’s too conservative and outwardly religious … anything over 15 percent would be a strong performance for him. However, Cruz should be able to finish in double digits by picking up some pieces of the old Ron Paul coalition … NOT A SURPRISE: GOP makes New Hampshire primary history with five candidates winning at least 10 percent.
SCHORSCH’S PREDICTION: Trump by nearly two touchdowns, followed by Kasich, Bush, Cruz, Rubio, and Christie.
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TRACKING POLL — The latest UMass-Lowell tracking poll in New Hampshire finds Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 34%, followed by Cruz at 13%, Rubio at 13%, Kasich at 10% and Bush at 10.
TWEET, TWEET: @EmersonPolling: Late-breaking #NHPrimary poll from http://theecps.com @realDonaldTrump 31% @Jeb2016 16% @JohnKasich 13% @marcorubio 12% @tedcruz 11%
JEB BUSH LEADS GOP FIELD IN NH — WITH VOTER CONTACTS via Donovan Slack of USA TODAY – Bush is leading the Republican field when it comes to the number of voters who say they have personally been contacted by someone on behalf of a campaign … Such stats can be a key indicator of whether a candidate’s on-the-ground, get-out-the-vote efforts are robust — or not … this is how all the candidates from both parties stack up in voter contacts: Clinton … Sanders … Bush … Kasich … Cruz … Rubio … Trump … Christie and Fiorina … the top three, Clinton, Sanders and Bush, were bunched close together and Kasich wasn’t far behind.
BUSH SUPER PAC POLL HAS JEB IN THIRD, MARCO RUBIO IN FIFTH via Alex Isenstadt of POLITICO – Conducted after the end of Saturdaynight’s debate and concluded before the start of the Super Bowl on Sunday evening, shows Trump with a wide lead over the field with 29 percent. Kasich follows with 14 percent, followed by Bush at 12 percent. Cruz, the winner of the Iowa caucuses, notches 10 percent … Rubioat just 9 percent following his widely panned performance in the debate … Christie trails Rubio with 8 percent.
TRUMP SAYS BUSH IS AN EMBARRASSMENT TO HIS FAMILY — Trump told CNN that Jeb Bush was a “pathetic” and “desperate” candidate. “He doesn’t even use his last name in his ads. He’s a sad person who has gone absolutely crazy. I mean this guy, he’s a nervous wreck. I’ve never seen anything like it.” Trump added: “Jeb is having some kind of a breakdown. He’s an embarrassment to his family. He has to bring his mother out and walk his mother around at 90 years old. I think it’s a very sad situation that’s taking place.”
TWEET OF THE DAY: @JebBush: .@realDonaldTrump, you aren’t just a loser, you are a liar and a whiner. John McCain is a hero. Over and out.
ASSIGNMENT EDITORS: Bush will hold an election night watch party at 9 p.m. in the Manchester Community College (Multi-Purpose Room), 1066 Front Street in Manchester, New Hampshire.
INDICATORS SHOW MARCO RUBIO IN FREE FALL via Taegan Goddard of the Political Wire – Google search trends in New Hampshire show that Rubio’s is in free fall while interest in Kasich is increasing and Trump is holding steady.
RUBIO ROBOT APPEARS AGAIN via press release from Correct The Record: “Right when you think it can’t get any worse for Marco Rubio, he short circuits again. This time the Rubio-bot has a complete meltdown. With each passing second it becomes clearer how unprepared Rubio is to be president. All we see now is a 404 error: original candidate not found.”
GAY VOTER TO RUBIO — WHY DO YOU WANT TO PUT ME BACK IN THE CLOSET via the New York Times – A middle-aged gay man confronted Rubio on Monday over his opposition to same-sex marriage, pointedly asking, “Why do you want to put me back in the closet?” “I don’t,” Rubio replied. “You can live any way you want.” … The tense exchange inside the Puritan Backroom diner ended with Rubio walking away and the displeased voter calling him a “typical politician.”
CHRIS CHRISTIE KEEPS POUNDING RUBIO — Christie said that Hilary Clinton would eat his rival Rubio alive if the two were to go head-to-head in the general election, TPM reports. “You can’t put an amateur on the debate stage. She will eat him alive.”
TED CRUZ’ LATEST DIRTY TRICK? — Cruz is out with a deceptive new mailer that masquerades as official government business and promises people there’s a “check enclosed” when it’s actually asking for money instead, the Huffington Post reports.
ACTUAL HEADLINE via the Dallas Morning News: “Retching protester tries to exorcise Ted Cruz demons.”
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CLINTON’S TEAM TRIES TO DOWNPLAY EXPECTATIONS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE via Annie Linskey of the Boston Globe – Two days before the New Hampshire primary, Clinton focused her campaign on a pressing local public health issue — in Flint, Mich. The 1,400-mile campaign detour … Was designed to highlight her concern over the plight of families poisoned by lead in the municipal water, a play for African-American voters. The trip also turned attention away from New Hampshire, where she’s lagging in the polls. Team Clinton once saw the Granite State as friendly territory … The relationship with the state’s voters seems to have frayed quite a bit since then, with even some top supporters acknowledging that a win looks nearly impossible. Instead her rival, Sanders, has led in this state for months, outspending her on the largest TV station here in recent weeks. Like Clinton, Sanders is also looking past the Granite State. He, too, exited the campaign trail over the weekend, looping down to New York City to appear on NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” alongside comedian Larry David. By Sundayafternoon Sanders was back in the Granite State talking to voters, and he headlined a rally that attracted 1,200 at Great Bay Community College in Portsmouth.
CLINTON LOOKS TO SISTERHOOD, BUT VOTES MAY GO TO BERNIE SANDERS via Abby Phillip and Frances Stead Sellers of the Washington Post – A CNN/WMUR survey … showed Sanders beating Clinton among women by eight points — notable because Hillary won women by 11 points in Iowa … Clinton’s struggles with women underscore the extent to which she has not yet figured out how to harness the history-making potential of her candidacy in the same way that Barack Obama mobilized minorities and white liberals excited about electing the first black president … Cognizant of the challenge, the Clinton campaign has sought in recent days here to address the problem, tweaking her speeches to put a focus on Clinton as an advocate for women. Clinton spent part of Friday with a group of female U.S. senators she calls the “sisterhood of the traveling pantsuits.”
CLINTON WEIGHS STAFF SHAKE-UP POST NH via Glenn Thrush and Annie Karni of POLITICO — Hillary and Bill Clinton are so dissatisfied with their campaign’s messaging and digital operations they are considering staffing and strategy changes after what’s expected to be a loss in Tuesday’s primary here, according to a half-dozen people with direct knowledge of the situation. The Clintons – stung by her narrow victory in Iowa – had been planning to reassess staffing at the campaign’s Brooklyn headquarters after the first four primaries, but the Clintons have become increasingly caustic in their criticism of aides and demanded the reassessment sooner, a source told POLITICO.
TWEET, TWEET: @DavidAxelrod: When the exact same problems crop up in separate campaigns, with different staff, at what point do the principals say, “Hey, maybe it’s US?”
MEANWHILE … MICHAEL BLOOMBERG CONFIRMS HE MIGHT RUN FOR PRESIDENT via the Associated Press – [The] Former New York City Mayor … is considering mounting an independent campaign for president. Bloomberg told The Financial Times … he was “looking at all the options” when it comes to a bid. The billionaire businessman said he found the current campaign to be “an insult to the voters.” It’s the first time he acknowledged a possible run. He is distressed by the rise of Donald Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz among Republicans and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders among Democrats.
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CARLOS BERUFF NOW LIKELY TO ENTER FLORIDA’S U.S. SENATE RACE via Brendan Farrington of the Associated Press – A wealthy Manatee County homebuilder is likely to jump into Florida’s U.S. Senate race in a move that would pit key members of Gov. Rick Scott‘s political team against Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera in the Republican primary.
Carlos Beruff has gone from considering entering the race to likely to get in, said Joanna Burgos, a Scott media consultant Beruff has talked with about a potential campaign.
Burgos said she and three other members of Scott’s team have consulted with Beruff, who served on Scott’s transition team after he won office in 2010. Scott has also appointed Beruff to several commissions.
If Beruff gets in, Matt Parker would serve as his campaign manager. Parker was Scott’s 2010 field director and served as a consultant on Scott’s 2014 re-election. Also coming over from Scott’s campaigns would be Curt Anderson, who would help with polling, media and strategy, and fundraiser Debbie Alexander.
Rick Wilson, a Republican strategist working with a super PAC that’s backing Lopez-Cantera, said the fact that Scott’s political team would be working with Beruff doesn’t mean that Scott supports him.
“I think that Rick Scott would be the first to tell you that he has no dog in this fight,” Wilson said. “He’s been very supportive of Carlos.”
FLASHBACK: Beruff’s name first surfaced as a possible U.S. Senate candidate in the January 18, 2016 edition of Sunburn. That’s why you read it.
RON DESANTIS’ WITHERING REACTION: “The last thing the United States Senate needs is another Charlie Crist Republican,” said DeSantis Campaign Manager Brad Herold. “Carlos Beruff gave thousands of dollars to liberal Charlie Crist over conservative Marco Rubio, even after Crist embraced Obama and his wasteful $800 billion stimulus bill. Even worse, he said he’d stick by Charlie Crist for this very Senate seat whether Crist ran as a Republican or not. It’s a free country, but if Carlos enters the race for Senate, he’ll soon find out the same way his friend Charlie Crist did that grassroots Florida conservatives have long memories.”
— “Jeff Moran enters GOP primary to take on Gwen Graham” via Kevin Derby of the Sunshine State News
–“Mary Thomas reels in Vietnam POW endorsement” via Kevin Derby of the Sunshine State News
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RICK SCOTT BUYS DIGITAL ADS TO PROMOTE HOSPITALS AGENDA via Jeremy Wallace of the Tampa Bay Times – Let’s Get to Work Political Committee … was launching a statewide digital ad this week that calls on hospitals to be more transparent about their billing practices. Scott made the same issue a key part of a speech he delivered last month in Washington, D.C. before the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative policy think tank. The new ad follows a statewide television commercial and bus tour in January that Scott used to drum up support for his tax cut plans and his push for the Legislature to set aside $250 million for a job creation fund Scott wants to use to lure more companies to move to Florida.
SOUTH FLORIDA AUTO DEALER ASKED SCOTT TO INCREASE FUNDING TO BOYS & GIRLS CLUBS via Kristen Clark of the Tampa Bay Times – Rick Case asked Scott to recommend $20 million total next year for the state Boys & Girls Clubs, with $10 million each from the departments of Education and Juvenile Justice. “I do have some community business that I need your help with leading into the 2016 Legislative Session in January,” Case led his email, after noting how he was “looking forward” to seeing Scott at Case’s daughter’s upcoming wedding. Case pointed out that the Florida Alliance of Boys & Girls Clubs took a 50 percent cut in its state funding this year, which meant the Broward County Boys & Girls Club — with which Case said he is “deeply involved” — also lost almost half of its state aid received by way of the alliance. “We are working hard here in Broward to make up that shortfall, but I really need you (sic) help to make our kids a priority in your budget submission this year,” Case wrote.
ASSIGNMENT EDITORS: Gov. Scott will attend the groundbreaking of NBCUniversal Telemundo Enterprises’ new global headquarters at 10 a.m. at the corner of NW 25th Street and NW 121st Court in Miami.
***A special message from Florida’s horsemen: While legislators debate using hard-earned taxpayer dollars for corporate relocation incentives, Florida employers who’ve been hard at work for decades could lose everything, thanks to “decoupling”— a Big Casino cash grab and gambling expansion plan tucked inside the Seminole Compact. It seems senseless to kill established Florida businesses, while spending public money in hopes new business may materialize. But Florida could do just that when “decoupling” leaves horse racing investors with NO WAY to do business and NO CHANCE to recoup financial return. Gambling policy should be about growing Florida’s economy. Not padding the pockets of Big Casinos. Florida’s horsemen oppose decoupling in ANY form. NoDecoupling.com.***
IT’S KEEP FLORIDA BEAUTIFUL DAY— Several affiliates of Keep Florida Beautiful, including Keep Tampa Bay Beautiful, were honored during the recent Keep America Beautiful annual conference in Orlando. Want to see what made them so special? Many of the projects and Keep Florida Beautiful affiliates will be on display Tuesday during Keep Florida Beautiful Day at the Florida Capitol. The displays will be located on first floor of the Capitol from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m.
OPEN CARRY BILL ‘ON LIFE SUPPORT’ IN FLORIDA SENATE, JUDICIARY CHAIRMAN SAYS via Kristen Clark of the Miami Herald – Miguel Diaz de la Portilla … will decide this week whether to grant a hearing on it. “I have some serious concerns about open carry in light of what happened in the House last week … I am concerned that it may become a vehicle for some very, very bad amendments. I think that’s what we learned last week. … Because of those concerns, I’m very, very seriously considering not hearing it at all.” Legislation allowing more than 1.5 million concealed-weapons permit-holders in Florida to openly carry easily passed the state House last week, mostly along party-lines. An amendment was added to it during floor debate, which would allow lawmakers to carry concealed on the chamber floors and in official committee meetings. Those locations are among several so-called “gun-free” zones designated in state law, where even concealed weapons are prohibited.
ASSIGNMENT EDITORS: Senator Oscar Braynon and Representative Katie Edwards, sponsors of the Infectious Disease Prevention Act (IDEA), will hold a news conference 4 p.m. on the fourth Floor of the Florida Capitol. They will be joined by Miami-Dade County Commissioner, Sally Heyman, Dr. Hansel Tookes of Jackson Memorial Hospital and Jason King, from the AIDS Healthcare Foundation.
LEGISLATIVE SCHEDULE HIGHLIGHTS via Legislative IQ powered by Lobby Tools
SENATE CONSIDERS SINKHOLE INSURANCE PLANS – A proposal to allow companies to sell standalone sinkhole insurance plans will be heart by the Senate Banking and Insurance Committee. Meeting starts 10 a.m. in Room 110 of the Senate Office Building.
ETHICS BILL HEARD IN SENATE – On the agenda for the Senate Governmental Oversight and Accountability Committee is a bill modernizing the state’s ethics laws. Meeting begins 10 a.m. in Room 401 of the Senate Office Building.
INTERSTATE NURSE AGREEMENT DEBATED – A bill in the Senate Health Policy Committee would help attract out-of-state nurses through a mutual licensure compact with other states. Meeting starts 10 a.m. Room 412 of the Knott Building.
SENATE UBER REGULATION BILL — The Senate Judiciary Committee will consider a bill regulating transportation network companies such as Uber and Lyft. Meeting starts 4 p.m. in Room 110 of the Senate Office Building.
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REPUBLICAN COMMITTEES POST 6-FIGURE HAULS IN FIRST DAYS OF 2016 via Florida Politics – Sen. Bill Galvano’s political committee, Innovate Florida, leads early filers after posting $216,000 raised in January. That haul came across in just 31 contributions, including three checks for $25,000 from the Florida Medical Association PAC, optometry group OD-EYEPAC, and Costa Farms. After $19,000 in January expenditures, [Galvano] was left with about $1.23 million in the bank … Tom Lee came in just behind Galvano with $212,700 in January contributions to his committee, The Conservative. His total included five $25,000 checks, with MCNA Health Care and multibillionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones each contributing at that level alongside FMA. Costa Farms also made the list with a $10,000 check. Steve Crisafulli leads in the other chamber, with $136,000 in committee money last month. His PAC, Growing Florida’s Future, got $25,000 checks from an Associated Industries of Florida committee and from the FMA to bring its total to more than $600,000 on-hand. Not far behind Crisafulli is the presumptive 2018-20 House Speaker, Rep. Jose Oliva, who raised $135,500 for his Conservative Principles for Florida PAC.
EARLY SESSION A MIXED BAG FOR DOWNTOWN TALLAHASSEE BUSINESSES via Jim Rosica of Florida Politics – This year’s early Session so far has been a mixed bag for Tallahassee’s hospitality businesses. “We’re not a big fan of it,” said John McCarroll, general manager of the Hotel Duval, saying his group reservations have been dropping out more often this year, as opposed to last-minute additions during usual spring Sessions. The hotel also has a rooftop bar with outside seating area, known as Level 8, that hasn’t seen as much business as it does in warmer weather, McCarroll said. His sales director, Brett Kolmetz, added that switching the dates of Session every other year hurts his planning because “continuity is important … I just think March and April is better for the city.” Gus Corbella, immediate past president of the private Governors Club, said it has been having an “equally successful” Session business as it did last year. “People are still needing to eat, drink and have a place to socialize,” he said. “Short of the weather outside, you wouldn’t know it’s a winter Session or a spring Session.” Adam Goodson, general manager of Harry’s Seafood Bar & Grille, said the early Session has boosted his usually slower beginning-of-year sales. “But we will miss (the Legislature) during the normal time,” he said. “Now, if they were here year-round, that’d be even better.”
ADAMS STREET DUST-UP: LOBBYIST SUES FORMER SENATE PRESIDENT MIKE HARIDOPOLOS via Florida Politics – Longtime lobbyist Frank Tsamoutales has filed suit against former Senate President Mike Haridopolos, who until recently worked for him, saying the ex-politician committed fraud and breach of contract by “trading on his former political positions to receive large sums of money” instead of “performing meaningful work,” according to a complaint.
Haridopolos called the suit “laughable,” saying it was a preemptive strike against Haridopolos’ own planned lawsuit for nonpayment of more than $400,000 in fees that Haridopolos told FloridaPolitics.com he’s still owed.
Tsamoutales filed Monday in Leon Circuit Civil Court, seeking damages of more than $15,000. He also is suing Haridopolos for tortious interference with a contractual relationship, saying he wrongly “encouraged and induced” lobbyist Amy Bisceglia to leave Tsamoutales’ firm, Tsamoutales Strategies, taking confidential information so that she and Haridopolos could steal lobbying clients from Tsamoutales, the suit said.
BRIAN AND KATHRYN BALLARD DONATE BUILDING FOR FSU’S NEW JIM MORAN ENTREPRENEURSHIP SCHOOL via Kristen Clark of the Miami Herald – [The] Ballards have donated a $1.1 million building in downtown Tallahassee to Florida State University for the purpose of housing the new Jim Moran School of Entrepreneurship. The university announced the Ballards’ donation … two months after announcing the new school, which is being funded by an historic $100 million gift from Jan Moran and The Jim Moran Foundation. Kathryn Ballard is a member of the FSU Board of Trustees and an FSU alumna, while Brian Ballard is CEO of Ballard Partners, a high-profile lobbying firm in Tallahassee. The building that the couple donated is a three-story, 19,000-square-foot building on Monroe Street just north of the Florida Capitol.
SPOTTED at Tallahassee International Airport en route to FishHawk: Eileen Stuart (Ping me!).
SPOTTED at Tampa International Airport NOT en route to Tallahassee: Steve Cona of the Associated Builders and Contractors.
APPOINTED: Kenneth Bradley, David Walsh, and John Sprouls to the University of Central Florida Board of Trustees.
APPOINTED: Jose Armas and Claudia Puig to the Florida International University Board of Trustees.
APPOINTED: Fermin Miranda and Norman Worthington to the New College of Florida Board of Trustees.
PERSONNEL NOTE – IAN MADER NAMED AP NEWS EDITOR IN FLORIDA – Mader, a veteran foreign correspondent with a reputation for breaking news and challenging reporters, has been named … Florida news editor based in Miami. Mader, 50, joined The Associated Press in 1992 and has worked in Alaska, Maryland, New York and Germany. Before becoming China news editor in Beijing in 2012, he spent a decade as a supervisory editor and top stories editor on AP’s Asia regional desk in Bangkok. Mader played a lead role in AP’s coverage of the disappearance of Malaysia Air MH370, the tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan and the earthquake that struck Christchurch, New Zealand. He also has led coverage of China’s increasing crackdown on dissidents in recent years, accusations of corruption against Communist Party members and the authorities’ use of torture against activists. He will begin work on March 22.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY to Reps. Fred Costello and Pat Rooney.
