Peter Schorsch
Of the many polarizing figures in northeast Florida politics, none are more so than two women: U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown and State Attorney Angela Corey.
Both have decades of respective tenure: Brown, almost a quarter-century in the United States Congress, with parts of Jacksonville making up the core of her occasionally-shifting district; Corey, elected State Attorney for the last eight years, before that a quarter-century of experience as Assistant State Attorney.
There was a time when both women seemed unassailable. Tom Slade once said that it was pointless to run real competition against Brown, saying there’s “no education in the second kick of a mule.” And Corey didn’t even face opposition when she ran for re-election in 2012.
How things have changed.
First, the Brown situation. Seemingly every media outlet in Jacksonville had “sources” saying — all at once — there was an indictment pending in the One Door For Education case, where an educational charity took in $800,000 while somehow failing to distribute it for the purposes of “education.”
Even before that, Brown wasn’t doing so great in the polls.
A UNF Poll from a week ago had her three points up on Tallahassee’s Al Lawson in the race; the margin of error was 4.9 percent. That was driven almost exclusively by momentum in Jacksonville, where Brown led Lawson 52 to 8 percent.
And west of Jacksonville, from Baker — where blue-dog Democrats are prominent and Brown’s legendary political machine never operated — the numbers are reversed: Lawson leading Brown 40 to 14 percent.
If Brown loses, the indictment and potential conviction will be easy to blame. However, Corey — Brown’s foil in such matters as the Marissa Alexander case — has no such charges pending.
A UNF poll taken this week says voters are getting sick of her. And not just Democrats and Independents, whom her former campaign operatives ensured disenfranchisement through filing paperwork for a write-in candidate, but also Republicans … the ones actually voting in the now-closed Aug. 30 primary.
According to that poll, Nelson leads by 10 points with Republicans … six points with the excluded voters, an irony to be sure.
Meanwhile, if one were to look at the fundraising reports, he or she would think Nelson was the incumbent. Nelson has roughly $400,000 in the bank, money ready to deploy. Corey, with a much less agile operation, has only $190,000.
Corey has spent profligately, including over $19,000 on “research” from the discredited McLaughlin outlet. Her team pushed out a “tragicomic” poll from early June, showing Corey ahead — in reaction to the UNF poll.
Of course, the survey was a month old. And it was only of 300 people.
Can Corey still win? Can Brown?
Sure, it’s possible. Brown can tell her base that an indictment does not equal a conviction, and frame it as a political witch hunt. And they might believe it.
And Corey has the backing of every incumbent in Northeast Florida, including Mayor Lenny Curry and Senator Rob Bradley, whose political committees can be politically active at a moment’s notice.
A Corey PAC could, in theory, go negative on Nelson, as a way of undermining her high favorable.
But right now it’s looking bad for both politicians. Two women, arguably the most influential female politicians in Northeast Florida, fighting for their political lives, against odds and competition they wouldn’t have imagined a year ago.
.@UNFPORL also showed Mayor Brown ahead by 12 pts in 2015 and Charlie Crist beating Gov Scott by 5 pts in 2014 @Fla_Pol @aggancarski #jaxpol
— Angela Corey (@AngelaCorey2016) July 6, 2016
“Poll of Florida’s 4th Judicial Circuit likely voters shows potential for turnover in the State Attorney and Public Defender offices” via the University of North Florida — Melissa Nelson leads the State Attorney’s race with 34 percent, incumbent Angela Corey has 24 percent and Wes White has 8 percent. For the office of Public Defender, Charles Cofer is ahead with 35 percent while incumbent Matt Shirk trails with only 17 percent. “A well-known incumbent (Corey) trailing by 10 points at this stage of the race, suggests that her campaign is in deep trouble. Perhaps the highly publicized controversies surrounding the state attorney’s office have taken a toll,” said Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director. This is a closed Republican primary due to questionable circumstances surrounding a write-in candidacy currently under appeal to the Florida Supreme Court. To estimate the effect of the closed primary election, Democratic and Independent likely voters were also included in the poll to see how they would vote given the opportunity. “The idea that a tough-on-crime Republican (Angela Corey) is doing relatively better among Democrats and Independents than Republicans is mind-boggling. Even though Nelson still leads among these disenfranchised voters, it looks as though the Kenny Leigh shenanigans may have backfired,” said Binder.
“Angela Corey in trouble?” via John Burr — What does it mean when all the big political endorsements are coming your way but the serious money and the polls are swinging toward your opponent?
How significant is it that you are an incumbent going for a third term who has taken serious bumps and bruises over your job performance? Or that you have become such a lightning rod that the National Review, an iconic conservative publication, chooses to write a highly critical piece about you (referring to your “less than scrupulous approach to professional ethics”), the State Attorney from Jacksonville, Fla?
It means that you, Angela Corey, have a week or two to right your foundering re-election campaign.
Despite having captured the unanimous endorsements of Jacksonville’s Republican political elites and the law enforcement community, you are being trashed in the realms of money-raising, political advertising and polls by your principal Republican primary challenger, Melissa Nelson.
The statistics: A University of North Florida poll, released Wednesday, shows former Assistant State Attorney Melissa Nelson with a 10-point lead over Corey, 34 percent to 24 percent.
As of late June, Nelson had raised about $698,000 to Corey’s $322,000, according to reports. At that rate, Nelson is threatening to suck all the oxygen out of the room, leaving relatively little money in Northeast Florida donor circles for Corey to capture.
The primary vote is seven weeks away, Aug. 30, but if the political tides don’t start moving in Corey’s favor soon, Nelson’s momentum could prove unstoppable. Corey has a well-earned reputation as a tenacious trial lawyer, she’ll need her most compelling jury speech ever to pull this one out, and she had better not wait too long to make it.
“Lawson opens up about the environment, criminal justice reform and the need for change in local politics” via Claire Goforth of Folio Weekly –Veteran politician, moderate Democrat and self-described “country boy” l Lawson cuts a striking figure … on one of his recent campaign stops in Northeast Florida where, in an effort to introduce himself to voters, he’s been pounding pavement and pressing flesh in a whirlwind of meet-and-greets, events and interviews. Lanky, eloquent and knowledgeable about state and national political machinations and issues, the former Florida state senator and house representative with nearly 30 years’ experience in politics was careful not to say anything particularly critical of his beleaguered opponent, 12-term Congresswoman Corrine Brown. Well-known to voters further west, but a relative newcomer to Northeast Florida, Lawson’s will be an uphill battle to win over local voters who are already familiar with his opponent in time for the Aug. 30 Democratic primary in Florida’s newly drawn 5th Congressional District. But to hear him tell it, in this case familiarity might breed just the right amount of contempt: “I love North Florida and I have not been totally satisfied with the leadership that we’ve had in congress. I know some people asked, ‘Why do you wanna run for Congress?’ Because I know that one person can make a difference because I’ve seen that happen. The legislature over the last 16, 18 years was controlled by the Republicans and I had no problem in working across the aisle to make things really work … The leadership has been, from what I understand, in the past that you either take it or leave it. My thing is to bring the leadership to the community where everybody feels that they are important and that I understand their issues and am willing to work with them.”
— “Brown indictment boosts Lawson’s bid for CD 5” via James Call of the Tallahassee Democrat
“Poll in CD 4 shows John Rutherford with a comfortable lead” via the University of North Florida — A new poll of likely Republican voters in Congressional District 4 by the UNF Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) … shows that former Jacksonville Sherriff Rutherford leads the race with 27 percent, Hans Tanzler is in second place with 13 percent, and State Rep. Lake Ray carries third place with 9 percent. Rounding out the rest of this crowded contest are St. Johns County Commissioner Bill McClure with 2 percent, Deborah Katz Pueschel with 2 percent, Ed Malin and Stephen Kaufman with less than 1 percent each. “Rutherford leads early in this race, but considering the vast amount of indecision among likely voters, Tanzler and Ray could still be contenders,” said Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director. “Although Rutherford is the front-runner, I expected the size of his lead to be much larger.”
“Florida Chamber endorses Sen. Travis Hutson in SD 7” – “Sen. Travis Hutson has remained focused on creating jobs and we look forward to continuing to work with him on securing our state’s future. The Florida Chamber is proud to endorse … Hutson for the Florida Senate,” said Chamber Senior Vice President of Political Strategy Marian Johnson.
“Northeast Florida legislative candidates endorsed by small business” – The National Federation of Independent Business … announced its endorsed candidates in several Northeast Florida legislative races. The endorsements were made by NFIB/Florida SAFE (Save America’s Free Enterprise) Trust, which is comprised exclusively of NFIB members. Florida Senate: SD 7 – Travis Hutson; SD 8 – Keith Perry. Florida House: HD 10 – Elizabeth Porter; HD 12 – Clay Yarborough; HD 15 – Jay Fant; HD 18 – Travis Cummings; HD 21 – Wenda Lewis; HD 23 – Stan McClain; HD 24 – Paul Renner.
“Write-in candidate Timothy Glidden challenges Jay Fant” via Sarah Denicolais of WJCT – Glidden describes himself as a pro-life conservative who believes strongly in religious freedom. He’s lived in Jacksonville for the past 28 years and is a father of four. Glidden says he’s been interested in politics since watching the Nixon re-election at 6 years old. He has volunteered on local campaigns and was the previous president of the Republican Club of West Jacksonville. “I’ve been interested in politics since I was young, and I was very active for about 15 years,” Glidden said. “I wanted to give the people in District 15 a chance to vote either for or against our current representative.”
“Jax Beach mayoral candidate Cory Nichols addresses foreclosure, bankruptcy” via Florida Politics – Nichols, who began his campaign by staking himself $30,000, has financial challenges in his past that may be of interest to voters, including a foreclosure and a Chapter 7 bankruptcy. His home in Jacksonville Beach was sold at auction in 2013. Nichols attributes those circumstances to a cyclical economy that affected the engineering sector. “The housing market, as well as the engineering market, had a major collapse back in 2006 and recovery was very slow. I continued efforts to work with the bank toward a resolution for the property and was unsuccessful. My legal counsel suggested that it was the best route to go,” Nichols wrote in response to this and other questions from FloridaPolitics.com.
“Campaigns for St. Johns County offices rack up money near and far” via Jake Martin of the St. Augustine Record – Campaign coffers of candidates running for office in St. Johns County this election season are plump with money coming from a variety of sources … often extends beyond the boundaries of the county. The primary contest for clerk of the circuit court and comptroller between Republicans Hunter S. Conrad and George Lareau is one of a heavily backed up-and-comer versus a longtime employee and top official. Conrad, the incumbent … is seeking election to his first full term. In the meantime, Lareau, who has served 32 years in the clerk’s office including 19 years as chief deputy clerk, was sworn in as the interim clerk the month before Conrad’s appointment. Neither candidate is lacking in campaign funding … Conrad had raised $74,822.27 in monetary contributions and spent $27,470.64 while Lareau had raised $39,870 and spent $12,222.27. The primary contest for sheriff is between former deputy Debra Maynard and incumbent David Shoar, both Republicans … Shoar, seeking election to his fourth term, had raised $235,850 and spent $146,069.29, compared to Maynard’s $9,402.02 raised and $7,601.35 spent. Three seats on the St. Johns County Commission are up for grabs, with Commissioners Bill McClure of District 3 and Rachael Bennett of District 5 not seeking re-election. Commissioner Jimmy Johns of District 1 … will face fellow Republican Al Abbatiello in a universal primary. Incumbent Johns took over midterm for [Cyndi] Stevenson, who left to take her seat in the Florida House … Johns had raised $78,900 and spent $10,757.40 to Abbatiello’s $5,185 raised and $4,339.88 spent. Former Assistant County Administrator for Community Services Jerry Cameron faces fellow Republican Paul M. Waldron, a St. Augustine businessman, in the primary for District 3, which represents the southeastern part of the county. Cameron boasts the largest war chest of the County Commission races with $131,375 raised and $28,136.02 spent as of Tuesday. That compares with Waldron’s $47,690 raised and $41,565.23 spent. Dottie L. Acosta, a former top official at the St. Johns County Property Appraiser’s Office, faces fellow Republican Henry Dean, former head of the St. Johns River Water Management District, in the primary for District 5, which represents much of the St. Augustine area up to International Golf Parkway. Primaries will be closed for two St. Johns County Commission seats (District 3 and District 5), clerk of the circuit court and comptroller, and sheriff.
Happening Wednesday — St. Johns County Republican Executive Committee meets at 6:30 p.m. at the Northeastern Regional Florida Airport Conference Center, 4730 Costa Cola Way in St. Augustine.
“Veteran attacked at Jacksonville gas station after saying he’ll vote for Donald Trump, police say” via Action News Jax –A 68-year-old veteran was attacked at a Jacksonville gas station after he told a clerk he plans to vote for Trump … The Vietnam War veteran said he was at the Shell gas station on Columbus Avenue Sunday when a store clerk asked him who he was voting for. He told the clerk he was voting for Trump and a man behind him in line got upset, police said. The victim told the man he was a Vietnam veteran and was voting for Trump in hopes that he would get the country back on track. He told police the man cursed at him and left the store. Police said surveillance video shows the man approach the veteran at the gas pumps and push him. The veteran told the man he didn’t want to fight and tried to leave, but the attacker pushed him and hit him in the face, said the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office. The veteran fell to the ground and the assailant kicked him in the stomach and forearm … The veteran told police the man walked away, but then charged at him again and threatened him before he drove away in a white Suburban. The officer said the victim’s face was swollen and red, and he was bleeding from the nose and mouth.
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“Why Jax Chamber is making a new international partnership” via Jensen Werley of the Jacksonville Business Journal — Jax Chamber is bringing back the Global Cities Initiative, with a new partnership between it and the U.S. Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration … The partnership is a natural extension of what is already being done by the Chamber internationally … The focus of the two organizations will be to double the region’s export activity over the next five years. Part of that is reviving the Global Cities Initiative, which was active during then-Mayor Alvin Brown’s tenure. Through Global Cities, the Brookings Institute, a national think-tank, identifies cities across the country on how to grow international business. Through that program, Jacksonville developed a strategy for growing exporting but had not yet implemented it. Doing so is part of the early discussions the Chamber is having.
“Jacksonville highway construction reaches $1B mark” via News4Jax.com – State highway construction in the Jacksonville metro area reached the $1 billion mark this summer, reflecting an unprecedented level of investment in the region’s infrastructure, according to Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) District Secretary Greg Evans. “We are engaged in a major overhaul of the transportation system in the Jacksonville metro area and we can thank Gov. Rick Scott, FDOT Secretary Jim Boxold and the Florida Legislature for their commitment to northeast Florida,” Evans said … investment in Jacksonville’s infrastructure is an investment in Jacksonville itself. Evans also added that FDOT was allocated more than $10 billion statewide for three years in a row as the state attempts to manage growth.
“Cecil deal significant to market” via the Jacksonville Financial News & Daily Record –It’s big — 850,000 to 1 million square feet. It’s a targeted industry — distribution, which fits the city and JAX Chamber’s sought-after logistics companies. It’s in a targeted area — AllianceFlorida at Cecil Commerce Center, city-owned property in West Jacksonville that formerly was part of a naval air station. It’s secretive — not only confidential, but not even code-named yet in public documents. Hillwood Investment Properties Senior Vice President Dan Tatsch understands the interest. “A transaction like this would be significant for the Jacksonville market,” Tatsch said … Whatever it is, the deal appears to be moving along. According to Tatsch, the prospect responded to a proposal from Hillwood during the second quarter, which ended June 30. Tatsch said he can’t provide more details until Hillwood files its second-quarter report with the city, due at the end of September. Even then, he might not be able to say much, “depending on the client’s decision regarding disclosure.” He said the plans have been submitted to the prospect and not publicly.
“Cutting through the hyperbole of the planned Gate Petroleum development” via John Burr — One has to wonder if Gate Petroleum’s plan for a massive development in northern St. Johns County will ever be built out to the specifications that were laid out by the company last week.
Specifically, plans to build the largest shopping area in Northeast Florida at 2.4 million square-feet of retail — to give you an idea, that’s like building another St. Johns Town Center plus another retail center about 70-percent the size of the town center. Whoa!
Of course, these megaprojects are first announced as if they were the second coming to garner as much buzz as possible. So there’s always the initial hyperbole to cut through.
Here’s two reasons why Gate may fall well short on the retail side of the development planned off Interstate 95 on the St. Johns-Duval County line:
— The retail competition: St. Johns Town Center is a retail phenomenon, a huge hit with Northeast Florida and South Georgia shoppers since the day it opened in 2007 and expanding in size seemingly at will. This shows no sign of slowing down, and the town center is easily accessible to all those new residents moving into Northern St. Johns County.
As is the Avenues Mall, which has taken some hits but is fighting back well, as are the surrounding big-box retailers and auto dealers who surround the mall.
Mandarin has a huge retail corridor on San Jose Boulevard off Interstate 295, and there is no reason to believe that the stores there will wither up as the new residents pour into northern St. Johns County. Quite the contrary.
— The digitalization of retail: In other words, Amazon.com., which is ripping big-boxes retailers across the country. Just look at what has happened to the stock prices of the biggest department stores this year — Macy’s, Nordstrom, Kohls, etc. — and it’s all because of their falling market shares as Amazon surges ahead. Not saying big-box stores are going away, but there will be far fewer built, as these huge traditional retailers pour money into building their own internet retail operations, and pull back on the bricks and mortar.
“More health care information coming for Floridians” via the Florida Times-Union –This is thanks to a new law co-sponsored by Sen. Rob Bradley … Consumers will be empowered to compare when shopping for health care. The law includes the development of a website with prices of treatment from hospitals and ambulatory centers. It also gives consumers the right to receive written price estimates. This legislation is more important than ever because the cost of health care is increasingly being born by consumers through larger co-pays and deductibles. “The annual increase in health care costs has outpaced inflation in every year for the past seven years except 2008,” noted the legislative analysis of Bradley’s bill. From 2010 to 2015, the average premium increase for covered workers with family coverage increased by 27 percent while wages only increased by 10 percent, the analysis stated. In fact, the average out-of-pocket expenses for people with employer-sponsored insurance rose by 37 percent between 2009 and 2013, reported researchers at the University of Michigan. The amount that people who were hospitalized paid toward their deductibles increased by 86 percent. Most Americans realize that quality and price often are not connected when it comes to health care.
“Court clash begins over medical marijuana license” via Daniel Ducassi of POLITICO Florida – Lawyers for a Jacksonville plant nursery that failed in its bid to obtain a medical marijuana dispensing license from the Florida Department of Health started making their case to an administrative law judge … The owner of the nursery, David Loop, took the stand … He and his lawyers are making the case that the company, Loop’s Nursery and Greenhouses, was best qualified to be awarded a license from the Department of Health’s Office of Compassionate Use, noting the company’s roughly 650,000 square feet of automated greenhouse space and Loop’s experience growing similar flowering plants. They also brought in horticulturist Terril Nell, a former University of Florida professor of floriculture, to bolster their argument. But perhaps the company’s biggest boast was its connections with Charlotte’s Web, the non-euphoric cannabis strain that catalyzed the passage of the 2014 bill that launched the licensing program – a bill many had dubbed the “Charlotte’s Web bill.” The exact terms of the agreement aren’t in writing, Loop said, but essentially the company would pay an estimated 11 percent in royalty fees to Ray of Hope 4 Florida, a company run by Peyton Moseley that has the exclusive right to sell Charlotte’s Web in Florida. Moseley is the husband of Holley Moseley, who runs Realm of Caring Florida The company is also connected to the six Stanley brothers who developed the cannabis strain.
“UNF’s College of education appoints new dean” via Ariella Phillips of the Florida Times-Union – Diane Yendol-Hoppey, a former professor and associate dean at the University of South Florida’s College of Education … Jacksonville’s urban education system and the college’s partnerships with public schools drew her to the area, she said. Throughout the interview process, she was pleased to see the involvement of students, faculty and the community. “Everywhere you look people are interested in schools,” she said. She’s looking forward to continuing programs with local school elementary, middle and high schools where education students complete internships. There are over 1,400 students in the college. UNF recently scored lowest among 11 state universities competing for performance funding. Yendol-Hoppey said while the College of Education and Human Services has received much recognition over the years, the key to improving the university’s standing is to make sure its graduates are getting and keeping jobs.
“Produce market launches at Jacksonville Transportation Authority’s main hub” via Action News Jax – … an important step towards eliminating food deserts in the community. JTA and the I’m A Star Foundation hopes easy access to fruits and veggies will encourage people to live healthier lives. The table will be set up every Friday from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m., and features everything from peaches to collard greens at market price. Nearly 11,000 people come through the bus station daily, and many of those people live in a food desert where they have to travel more than a mile for groceries. The director of I’m a Star Foundation is optimistic this will make a positive influence on people’s lives. The market at the Jacksonville Transportation Authority’s main hub was brought to life by teenagers.
“Crystal Lagoon moves closer to being a reality in St. Johns County” via Derek Gilliam of the Jacksonville Business Journal –Twin Creeks master planned community could include a 14-acre lagoon ringed by sandy beaches and mixed-use developments for retail shops and residents. John Kinsey, the developer of Twin Creeks, said he wasn’t ready to unveil the plans for the project, but with $35 million in road construction underway, big things are happening. The road construction will widen County Road 210 to six lanes throughout Twin Creeks and four lanes from the western edge to I-95. Twin Creeks is located 1 mile east of the I-95 interchange at County Road 210. Some plans show 800 residential units, 1 million square feet of retail and commercial space, 700,000 square feet of office space and an almost two-million-square-foot industrial/office park. The development has rights to build 3,000 houses.
“Sheriff announces review of officer actions after crash involving Jaguars RB Denard Robinson” via Dana Treen and Joe Daraskevich of the Florida Times-Union –Jacksonville Sheriff Mike Williams said his agency will conduct a full review of his officers’ actions following a car crash early Sunday where Robinson drove into a retention pond possibly passed out at the wheel … Robinson, 25, was cited with running a red light three years ago at the same intersection at Beach and Southside boulevards … The Sheriff’s Office report from Sunday’s crash said Robinson and his 29-year-old companion were asleep in the submerging Chevrolet Impala when found by a responding officer about 4:20 a.m. Both Robinson and the woman had to be woken up and didn’t seem to know what was going on or show any urgency, but no injuries were reported. It’s unclear in the report why the officers allowed Robinson to leave the scene without citing or arresting him and how they determined he was not impaired if they did not perform drug or alcohol tests.
“Could the Jaguars fill a need in the supplemental draft?” via Mike Kaye of WTLV – Let’s take a quick look at the six players available and how they might fit in Jacksonville: Ra’Zahn Howard, DT, Purdue: At 6-foot-4 and 325 pounds, Howard is probably the most NFL-ready of the players in the process. Cameron Walton, DE, Concordia (Alabama): The Jaguars failed to shy away from small school defensive linemen in this year’s regular draft, so perhaps they’ll keep the streak going. Jalen Overstreet, RB, Sam Houston State: A big back, Overstreet is listed as 6-foot-2 and 212 pounds. A former quarterback and running back for the University of Texas, Overstreet transferred to SHSU in 2014. Tee Shepard, CB, Ole Miss: Shepard seems to fit the mold of the bigger cornerbacks that Gus Bradley likes. Rashaun Simonise, WR, Calgary, Alberta: The 6-foot-5, 205-pound receiver from Canada was impressive last season. He caught 51 passes for 1,079 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. While he seems like a solid developmental prospect, I doubt the Jaguars would spend a pick on him. Eddie D’Antuono, LS, Virginia Tech: Carson Tinker just signed an extension September and clearly doesn’t need competition.
