Staff Reports
Hillary Clinton’s lead is becoming safer, as the share of undecided voters and voters not supporting a major-party candidate shrinks.
Harry Enten with FiveThirtyEight reported Thursday that people backing Clinton and Donald Trump now account for slightly more than 84 percent of the vote. That, Enten reported, is the highest their combined share has been since the website began issuing forecasts in June.
The site points out there “hasn’t been a huge change, but it’s meaningful.”
With just a month until the election, Enten writes, more voters are beginning to make up their minds. And third-party candidates tend to fade in the polls as Election Day approaches, something Enten said appears to be happening to Libertarian Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate.
As voters commit to one of the major-party nominees, Enten said Trump “simply has fewer people he can appeal to in order to make up his current deficit, which makes Clinton’s lead more secure.”
“A 5-percentage-point lead with about 15 percent of the electorate undecided or voting for a third-party candidate (about where the race currently stands) is far better than a 5-point lead with over 20 percent of the electorate undecided or voting for a third-party candidate (about where the race was in mid-June),” he wrote. “That’s part of the reason that Clinton’s chances of winning the election are in the upper 70s now, while they were in the low 70s back in June.”
Enten said if the third-party supporters and undecided voters were equally distributed between Clinton and Trump, the FiveThirtyEight model would “peg Clinton as a stronger favorite.”
“Although Clinton would benefit from a wider margin between Trump and herself, she would also benefit if more voters made up their mind — even if those undecideds split evenly between the major-party nominees,” he wrote. “The opposite is true for Trump. He would benefit if he could shrink the margin, but he should at the very least hope to make voters think twice before committing to either candidate.”
One comment
Dave Francis
October 8, 2016 at 2:57 pm
Suddenly many Republicans have become holier and thou? The Democrats and Liberals have also suddenly become very gentile, that a few chosen words of Donald Trump would cause a major disruption in the campaigns. I was in the navy and you should hear the colorful language of the women on board the ship. No matter which shower bay you where in, the meaty vocabulary bouncing of the bulkheads would make a saint cringe. Even Ensigns would talk about the men they had in bed and their desires, including picturesque words? Yet we have a prior President of the United States Bill Clinton sexually abusing women and the First Lady Hillary Clinton threatening the women that he had seduced, with ugly attacks on their person specially against 6 young women, with some being interns. That nothing that Trump has done in his live compares to the Hillary and Bill Clinton dark past?
So what Trump said, is just man talk in locker room. I don’t care what Trump says as men and women have sexual fantasies, as it’s only dangerous psycho’s like Bill Clinton who follow through with rapes and assaults on women; a leaked tape means nothing to basket of “Deplorable” as me? Donald Trump hasn’t defiled his honesty, where as the Clinton Foundation cover-up for criminal enterprises, which has been complicit with the FBI James Comey, Justice Dept Loretta Lynch and the main perpetrator the state Department. How can you leave the White House broke and now end up with 200 million dollars? Its’ Laughable!!
Oh Boy! The Criminal Clinton family is getting desperate and looking for any distractions away from classified emails and now the release of documents by Julian Assuage (Wikileaks) that illustrates how the Globalists stealing billions of dollars from foreign countries. Its World domination by Globalists, led by Billionaire Nazi sympathizer George Soros, who crave us to be under thumb of the United Nations? Obama is trying to let the UN claim our Internet, so we have no control. Regards to the stolen Donald Trump tape by the Washington Post, I personally don’t care? As an old soldier caught up in the Vietnam War zone and JUST BECAUSE I’M AN OLD SOLDIER, DOESN’T MEAN I AM A EUNUCH? I SEE THE FEMALE FORM & FOLLOW THROUGH WITH MY IMAGINATION AS BOTH SEXES DO? I personally don’t care what Trump said 20 years ago; He gets my vote and 33 other men and Women that I have recruited?
Another thing where are all the jobs promised by this administration? A huge amount vanished overseas, with jobs and corporations vanishing to Mexico, under Bill Clinton’s (NAFTA) agreement. If Hillary gets the Presidency say goodbye to hundreds of thousands of more jobs to the TransPacific Partnership (TPP) in Asia. Look around the Detroit, Michigan and every state, empty deserted factory floors; huge empty parking lots that once before were a hive of activity. And what do we get in return, criminal illegal aliens who American citizens must support, mostly refugees who we also have to cater too; all these monetary issues costing incomprehensible amounts of money? Trump is just an average man, he is not perfect? One thing he will not do is closed down every coal companies, ending jobs to thousands of miners in N. Virginia, Pennsylvania, and surround states. Even our steel industry has been sold out to China. Then again, Hillary Clinton is going to tax us to Death, and then thousands of farms, family estates will be taxed. Everything with Hilary and her Globalist friends are to tax us, paying more aid to foreign countries and the United Nations. No AMERICA FIRST with Madam Hillary–just tax and spend?
Just to remember the US Border Patrol stated today that by the treasonous executive orders of President Obama, has SECRETLY blocked enforcement at the borders and sources have admitted that his intention is to allow million of illegal aliens to vote. Intentional treason that ONLY US citizens have that right according to the US Constitution. It’s no wonder taxpayers are paying $113 Billion dollars a year for illegal immigrants, and will rise with Hillary Clinton as President admitting 550.000 Muslims with no means of support–just Taxpayers? Are we forever expected to support the welfare of the world, when Obama cuts Vet benefits and for two years has given no supplement to Senior in COLA cut-backs; yet there billions of dollars for illegal aliens and dangerous Muslim refugees? All these facts undermined by the Left wing, biased slanted mainstream press. Hey! I am indefinitely banned from authoring anything on Facebook, Digus commentary and many media, as I am a Trump supporter. Then of course the Left wing delete comments they don’t like? So far I still have 5000 following me on Twitter? Hillary Clinton is just another Barack Obama who wants to welcome uneducated, paupers from South America into our Sovereign nation, which we cannot afford owing to the 7-10 Trillion dollars Obama added to the national debt of 20 Trillion dollars we owe now.
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