Sunburn 10.27.16 — Marco Rubio, Patrick Murphy clash; Hillary rallies in Tampa; David Altmaier forecasts; In-depth of HD 60; Plus GIFs, polls and Stephen Colbert

Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics.

By Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Jenna Buzzacco-Foerster, Mitch Perry and Jim Rosica.

KEY RACE IN FOCUS: HOUSE DISTRICT 60 

The Florida GOP is hell bent on keeping this Hillsborough County seat red, as it’s poured more than $26,000 into aiding civil engineer Jackie Toledo in her race against Democrat David Singer.

Toledo has run an interesting campaign. She’s eschewed any debates against Singer and, essentially, has blown off the media.

That’s been incredibly frustrating to Singer, a South Tampa land-use attorney whose only previous direct political experience was as the leader of a failed transportation initiative in 2010.

Toledo wasn’t the GOP establishment’s first choice. That was Rebecca Smith, a businesswoman who earned more establishment endorsements in the primary and raised more than double the campaign cash than Toledo.

But Toledo worked much harder in getting out her vote, and it paid off in August, when she won by 222 votes out of more than 12,000 cast.

While Smith was going for the establishment vote, Toledo was appealing to the GOP’s more basic instincts, as she campaigned on a platform that included repealing pro-immigration laws that were supported by Governor Rick Scott and the Legislature.

Toledo pivoted in the general election campaign, however, dropping any talk of immigration.

Singer came out of the gate painting Toledo as a mini-me Donald Trump, and said at his campaign kickoff event that the race between him and Toledo was less about “right versus left” than “right versus wrong.”

Although his comments comparing Toledo to Trump went unanswered by the Toledo campaign for weeks, it was a surprise when the Toledo campaign said they would be not be denouncing Trump after his Access Hollywood comments went national, because she had never actually endorsed him.

That frustrated Singer, who said it was “laughable” that Toledo wasn’t linking her campaign with Trump’s.

There hasn’t been any public polling in the race, but Toledo remains the favorite to win on November 8.

House District 60 includes all of South Tampa, much of south Hillsborough County, and Town ‘n’ Country.

***Today’s SUNBURN is brought to you by Bright House Networks for Business, your trusted provider of industry leading communications and networking services for any size business — from startup to enterprise, and everything in between. We offer a full portfolio of products and services, including Business Phone and cloud-based Hosted Voice, Business Internet at speeds up to 350 Mbps to fiber-based Dedicated Internet Access, several tiers of high-quality HD Video programming, and an array of advanced cloud and managed IT services. Our solutions are customized to fit your business, your budget and your industry. We own, manage and maintain our network, which means we are 100% accountable; and we’re locally based, which allows us to be immediately responsive to our customers. Find out why so many businesses in your area trust their communications needs to Bright House Networks. Learn more.***

MARCO RUBIO, PATRICK MURPHY SPAR OVER POLICY, FALL BACK ON OLD ATTACKS

The first debate was about quibbling over qualifications.

The second debate was a chance for Sen. Marco Rubio and Rep. Patrick Murphy to get serious on the issues.

That isn’t to say old attacks fell by the wayside. Murphy jabbed Rubio over his missed votes and continued support for Republican nominee Donald Trump. Rubio countered by pointing to allegations Murphy padded his resume and his lackluster list of congressional accomplishments.

But throughout it all, both men sounded off on some the issues most important to Floridians. And with just 12 days until Election Day and millions of votes still waiting to be cast, the debate offered a chance to hear where the men stand on the issues — not just their attacks.

If you got wrapped up in their testy exchanges, here’s a look at three key policy points you might have missed.

Affordable Care Act

The issue of health care loomed large, after after federal officials announced premiums are expected to go up significantly next year under the Affordable Care Act, often called Obamacare. Premiums for a mid-level plan are expected to increase an average of 25 percent across 39 states, according to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services.

“There’s no question the Affordable Care Act was a huge step forward for our country. But the focus now has to be getting it right, working across the aisle to ensure we are fixing it, making sure we have more coverage for more people that’s affordable,” he said. “I believe we can do that, but you have to show up for work and you have to be working across the aisle.”

Murphy accused Rubio of spending his time in office trying to undermine the healthcare law. It’s no secret Rubio opposed it, and he has said he would repeal it if given the chance.

But the Miami Republican said he doesn’t want to go back to the old system, proposing instead a system that includes tax credits to help Americans buy health insurance and creating a high risk pool for people who have difficulty getting insurance.

“That is a much better approach than the system we have now, where you are forcing people on Obamacare because if they don’t they’ll get fined on their taxes,” he said.

Cuba

It might be an understatement to say Rubio and Murphy have a clear difference of opinion when it comes to Cuba.

Murphy supports President Barack Obama’s decision to ease sanctions. Rubio most definitely does not.

“The Cuban government is a dictatorship,” said Rubio. “We have no made over two years of concession after concession to the Castro regime, and they have not even taken a quarter step toward democracy.

Murphy called out Rubio for continuing to support Trump, who Murphy said “basically admitted” he violated the Cuban embargo.

“We know this is one of your core issues, and I’m not trying to be critical, because I do respect your position, but the person you chose to be our next president has basically he violated the embargo. And you continue to stand by his side,” said Murphy.

Rubio’s response?

“That’s bizarre, Congressman Murphy. You’re criticizing Donald Trump for supporting a position that you have,” he said. “You support lifting embargo.”

Social Security

In one of the grayest states in the country, you better believe Social Security is a big issue.

And it’s an issue that has dogged Rubio in recent weeks. Americans United for Change launched a six-figure ad campaign in Florida and four other states targeting Republicans, including Rubio, over their positions.

Rubio said he doesn’t support changes to the entitlement program that would impact people who are already retired or about to retire, but said for younger workers “there is going to have to be some changes or it won’t exist.”

“These programs are going bankrupt. Anyone who tells you we can leave it exactly how it is is lying to you,” he said. “And the longer we wait to address this reality, the likelier it would be we may have to disrupt these programs for people already retired. I don’t want to see that happen.”

Rubio also shot back at claims he wanted to dismantle Social Security and Medicare, saying that wasn’t the case.

“I don’t want to dismantle Social Security and Medicare,” he said. “Not only how do you explain that to voters, but how do you explain that to my mother, who’s on Social Security and Medicare? I want to save it, I want to preserve it, and I want to improve it for people who are on it now. But there will have to be changes to the way it works for future beneficiaries.”

ANALYSIS: MURPHY TRIES TO TRUMP RUBIO; RUBIO TRIES TO DISEMBELLISH MURPHY

When Florida’s two U.S. Senate candidates talked about their issue policy positions they made Florida voters choices really easy during their final face-to-face debate Wednesday night broadcast statewide on TV.

But rather than run with that, U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy appeared obsessed with trying to tie U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio to Donald Trump, who, in Murphy’s clear view has undeniably has enraged millions of Floridians; and to label Florida’s incumbent Republican senator seeking a second term as someone who failed to show up for his first term.

And Rubio tried to characterize Murphy as someone who’s a “serial embellisher” of his resume and record, when neither of them, in Rubio’s repeated assessment, have anything worthwhile to actually claim.

Over and over and over. Trump, Trump, Trump. Embellish, embellish, embellish. Doesn’t show up, terrible voting record, unreliable. Never accomplished anything. Nothing. Ever.

Murphy was arguably the more obsessed, criticizing Rubio’s endorsement of the Republican presidential nominee so often that Rubio finally squealed, 36-minutes into the 60-minute debate at Broward College in Davie, “The answer to every question tonight by Congressman Murphy is Donald Trump.” Yet Murphy didn’t quit, even after being called out for it.

Too bad. Because Rubio’s call-0ut came because Murphy walked on one of his own best answers of the night.

A left-field question demanded that the candidates each take a position on the concerns about police killing unarmed black men. The tragic phenomenon, played out too often to ignore in the past four years while the Black Lives Matter movement emerged in outrage and the All Lives Matter movement emerged to polarize the issue, actually had Murphy and Rubio largely agreeing. Both expressed strong empathy and concern for communities, particularly minority communities, which have come to distrust police. Both also expressed strong support and admiration for “the vast majority” of police, but both agreed the pattern had exposed a horrible gulf of mistrust that must be addressed. And both talked about legislation they proposed or supported, including their support of police body cameras. But while Rubio spoke in general or unspecified terms, trying to balance both sides, Murphy sought to make it real.

“Just in the past several months, in my own congressional district, there have been two terrible tragedies,” Murphy said. Then he went into detail about the Cory Jones case, and the Demarcus Semer case, and what he made of them. He brought them home, talking about worshiping and praying with the families, and his efforts on their behalf. And then Murphy…

Don’t do it. Don’t.

“What we can’t do,” Murphy concluded, “is let presidential candidates like Donald Trump, who is one of the most prejudiced, racist candidates ever to run for office…”

It happened over and over Wednesday night, as Murphy and Rubio offered clear distinctions on their views of issues from Social Security to Cuba, the Affordable Care Act to their priorities for new members of the U.S. Supreme Court, Syria to the economy and the wage gap.

And then someone played the Trump card, or the Embellish card.

The overriding theme of their answers seemed to be that Murphy wanted to characterize himself as a reasonable lawmaker willing to work across the aisle to get things done, and to characterize Rubio as a partisan fanatic whose loyalties were to the Koch Brothers, when he bothered to vote at all. Rubio was unabashed and proud about his conservatism, but argued that he knows how to get things done with bipartisan help, and has proven it on a wide range of issues that included Zika response funding but mostly a list of iconic conservative causes, including sanctions against Nicaragua and Venezuela, as opposed to his opponent, whom he characterized as accomplishing nothing.

Rubio’s most personally revealing point may have been when he was asked to explain his “God willing” caveat when he declared, in the last debate, two weeks ago in Orlando, that he would serve out all six years of his next U.S. Senate term, “God willing.”

“God willing is something I always say. Because while I deeply believe that man plans his own steps, it’s God who plans his course,” Rubio said. “I do. I believe that, for example, no matter what happens on Nov. 8, on Nov. 9 the sun will rise and the Creator of the universe will be still sitting on the throne. And that everything that’s going to happen will be because of him.”

Murphy’s best line of the night may have been when he jumped on Rubio’s pride for passing a bill that ended a provision of the Affordable Care Act that allowed federal help when insurance companies got into fiscal trouble in some states. “I know he’s about to tell us about the risk corridors and the plan he put forward. You see, that should be renamed ‘The Florida Premium Increase.'”

Rubio’s best line of the night may have been when he responded to Murphy’s points about the need for a minimum wage increase, and how Rubio had called it a waste of time, then added, “but he thinks being Senator is being a waste of time…. but you got 100 percent of your salary when you missed those votes.”

“I find it ironic that I’m being being lectured about the plight of the working class by a millionaire who inherited his money, who is lecturing the son of a working class immigrant who inherited no money. So I understand exactly what people are going through,” Rubio said.

HOW THE DEBATE PLAYED:

— “Specter of Trump looms large over Rubio-Murphy debate“ via Marc Caputo of POLITICO Florida 

— “Rubio, Murphy trade barbs on character, judgment – and Trump – at debate” via Andy Reid and Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel

— “Bitter Senate debate reflects tightening race between Rubio and Murphy” via Jeremy Wallace and Kristen M. Clark of the Miami Herald/Tampa Bay Times Tallahassee Bureau

— “Rubio, Murphy showcase their differences in intense TV debate” via Allison Nielsen of Sunshine State News

— “Senate candidates trade barbs in final debate” via Ledyard King of USA Today

REAX:

Florida Democratic Party’s Allison Tant: “At tonight’s debate, Floridans again saw a clear contrast between a candidate who will fight for them and candidate who is only fighting for himself. Patrick Murphy is committed to protecting the environment, growing our economy from the middle out, fighting for our seniors, working together toward community safety, and improving quality of life for working Americans. Marco Rubio’s attempt to laugh off his support of Donald Trump fell flat with Floridians concerned about just how dangerous a Trump presidency would be. Rubio offered no explanation for why he has the worst voting record of any Florida Senator in nearly 50 years and he again failed to unequivocally rule out abandoning his job for another presidential run. Floridians deserve better than a no-show Senator with one foot out of the door.”

American Bridge’s Jessica Mackler: “Marco Rubio spent his second debate trying to prove that he has accomplished anything for Floridians, but his problem is the few things that he’s accomplished as a senator have made Florida worse off. If Rubio had his way, he would team up with Donald Trump to cut Social Security and Medicare benefits, take affordable healthcare away from millions of Floridians, and defund Planned Parenthood. Rubio is a coward for continuing to support Donald Trump even after he’s bragged about abusing women, admitted that he broke the Cuban embargo, and praised Vladimir Putin. Why would Floridians ever believe that Rubio would support them?”

Americans for Prosperity’s Chris Hudson: “Murphy’s dearth of accomplishments in Congress, evident in tonight’s debate, demonstrates he’s too busy looking out for his own interests to look out for ours. Why should we enable him to extend this line on his resume when he’s failed us with the job he already has?

American Rising PAC’s Jeff Bechdel: “Marco Rubio absolutely dismantled Privileged Patrick Murphy during tonight’s #FLSEN debate. From the start, Murphy was forced on defense, explaining away his many resume embellishments and his commitment to Obamacare, which is triggering premium hikes for Floridians. In perhaps the most galling moment of the night, Murphy began to lecture about the “working class,” which got a blistering response from Rubio.”

TWEETS:

— @gbennettpost: .@RepMurphyFL to @marcorubio: “If you voted as much as you lied, you might actually be a decent senator” #FLSenDebate

WHITE HOUSE: OBAMA ‘COMMITED TO STRONGLY SUPPORTING’ MURPHY via Kristen M. Clark — White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said in a press briefing Wednesday that President Barack Obama is “committed to strongly supporting” PMurphy‘s U.S. Senate campaign in Florida — but the White House won’t weigh in on how national Democratic groups should spend their money supporting Murphy versus other Senate candidates. Recent polls show the race very close. And Murphy has gotten vocal praise from both Obama and Hillary Clinton during their recent visits to Florida, which has helped Murphy’s name ID and his support among the Democratic base. When Earnest was asked Wednesday whether Obama had an opinion on if Democrats should do as much as they can to take out Rubio (and consequently help Murphy), Earnest said: “I can tell you that President Obama is traveling down to Florida because he believes that Congressman Murphy is the right person to represent the state of Florida in the United States Senate. And he will reiterate that case once again on Friday in Orlando.”

UNF POLL: RUBIO HOLDS 6-POINT LEAD OVER MURPHY — A new poll from the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University North Florida shows Sen. Rubio leads Rep. Murphy, 49 percent to 43 percent. Rubio has the backing of 47 percent of independent voters polled and 83 percent of Republicans. He also received support from 57 percent of white voters and 41 percent of Hispanic voters. Murphy was backing by 75 percent of Democrats and 44 percent of independent voters. The poll found 76 percent of African-American voters and 52 percent of Hispanic voters were supporting Murphy.

MURPHY GETS SENATE CAMPAIGN $1M LOAD TO BEAT RUBIO via Marc Caputo of POLITICO – Murphy is personally guaranteeing a last-minute $1 million loan to his U.S. Senate campaign against Rubio, a decision designed to help the Democrat boost his name ID as some polls show he’s now within striking distance of the GOP incumbent. The independently wealthy Murphy went forward with the loan as fellow Florida Democrats began openly criticizing the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Majority super PAC for reneging on a promise to spend $16 million more in badly needed TV ads for their party’s nominee. “These additional resources will help position our campaign to win with expanded TV buys across Florida,” said Josh Wolf, Murphy’s campaign manager. “We are confident in our path to victory.” With the extra money, the campaign should be able to run what it feels is its strongest TV ad featuring President Obama supporting Murphy. That spot and another featuring Murphy are to run in heavy rotation in English and Spanish in the Miami media market, the state’s most-expensive that also happens to be Rubio’s home base. The Democrats hope the spot inspires African-American and Hispanic voters who, polls show, don’t know much about Murphy.

FLORIDA FIRST PROJECT CALLS MURPHY AN ‘EPIC LIAR’ IN NEW AD — The pro-Marco Rubio super PAC is out with a new advertisement targeting Rep. Murphy. In the 16-second spot, an announcer says Murphy “lied about being a CPA, a small business owner and even his college degree,” before calling the Treasure Coast Democrat an “epic liar.” The super PAC released a similar 15-second spot calling Murphy an “epic failure,” pointing to claims he was the most ineffective member of Congress. Click the image below to watch the ad.

*

— Back to the presidential campaign trail —

STATE OF THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE — IS THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE TIGHTENING via Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight — It seems like we’re overdue for another round of “is the presidential race tightening?” And the answer isn’t totally clear. Our model thinks Donald Trump has probably narrowed his deficit against Clinton slightly, but the difference is modest enough that we’ve wanted to change our answer with every new round of polls. And in general, we’re reluctant to proclaim any turnaround in the race while we still have to squint to see a shift. But here’s what we think is a little clearer: Trump’s share of the vote has increased, as he’s picked up undecided and third-party voters, probably as the result of Republicans’ returning home after a disastrous series of weeks for Trump this month. Clinton, however, is at least holding steady and probably also improving her own numbers somewhat. …  We can … see this pattern in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average. Clinton’s currently at 46.0 percent, which is her highest number on the year and up by 0.6 percentage points from a week ago, when she was at 45.4 percent just before the third presidential debate. Trump, meanwhile, is at 39.6 percent in national polls. That’s not a great number but is also improved — he was at 38.8 percent a week ago.

Trump’s chances of winning the election haven’t improved very much in our forecast. His odds are 15 percent in our polls-only forecast, not appreciably changed from 13 percent a week ago, and 16 percent in our polls-plus forecast, as compared with 15 percent last week. That’s because the modest gains Trump has made are partly offset by time running off the clock, and the number of undecided voters declining. So then: Democrats have nothing to worry about, right? Nope, we wouldn’t say that, either. The race could easily tighten further. And our forecast gives Trump better odds than most other models because it accounts for the possibility of a systemic polling error, a greater risk than people may assume. A 16 percent chance of a Trump presidency isn’t nothing — as we’ve pointed out before, it’s about the same as the chances of losing a “game” of Russian roulette. And 15 percent is about the same chance we gave the San Antonio Spurs of beating the Golden State Warriors last night — the Spurs won by 29 points.

TOO FUNNY:

BUCKLE UP, HILLSBOROUGH, YOU’RE THE BIG POLITICAL PRIZE via Joe Henderson of Florida Politics – Earlier this week, NBC political chief Chuck Todd was chatting with Republican strategist Jeff Roe, picking out three places around the country where election geeks should focus special attention. Hillsborough County topped the list. Are we surprised? Todd noted that Roe considered it “the bellwether county in the country” and added, “you could make that argument.” As if we needed any reinforcement why both Trump and Clinton have made campaign stops this week in Tampa, there’s your answer. As Hillsborough goes, so goes the presidential election, and the county is tough to label. It was the only Florida county to vote twice for Republican George W. Bush, then twice for Barack Obama. Beth Reinhard, national political writer for The Wall Street Journal, called Hillsborough “molten core of the political universe.” There are nearly 845,000 registered voters in Hillsborough and about 165,000 already have voted. It’s likely that a high percentage of those who haven’t yet voted have made up their mind. And with Roe’s polling showing a 46-44 percent lead for Clinton in Hillsborough, turnout is everything. So, buckle that chin strap, Hillsborough voter. You are prized like no other place in the country. If you didn’t already know that, I’m sure someone will be glad to explain to you over the phone.

FAU POLL SHOWS HILLARY CLINTON HAS 3-POINT LEAD OVER DONALD TRUMP IN FLORIDA — A new poll from Florida Atlantic University’s Business and Economic Polling Institute shows Clinton leads Trump, 46 percent to 43 percent. The poll found 6 percent of voters were still undecided. The poll showed Trump continues to have strong support in parts of North Florida, where he leads Clinton 56 percent to 32 percent. Clinton has a 49-point lead among African-Americans, and is winning independent voters 50 percent to 34 percent. Clinton also leads among the 26 percent of respondents who said they already voted.

CLINTON HAS 4-PONT LEAD OVER DONALD TRUMP IN NEW UNF POLL — A new poll from the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University North Florida shows Clinton leads Trump, 43 percent to 39 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson received 6 percent support, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 3 percent. The poll showed 9 percent of Floridians are still undecided. In a head-to-head match-up, Clinton leads Trump 46 percent to 44 percent. The poll was conducted from Oct. 20 through Oct. 25. It has a margin of error of 3.39 percent.

CLINTON AT PALM BEACH STATE: EVERY VOTE COUNTS via Eliot Keinberg of the Palm Beach Post — On her 69th birthday, in what might be the most important state on Election Day  … Clinton told an overflowing crowd Wednesday at Palm Beach State College to vote, and make sure their friends vote, and, if possible, vote early. “We need to work for the next 13 days, and here in Florida, voting could not be easier,” she told a crowd in a gymnasium at the college west of Lake Worth. In a reference to the tumultuous 2000 presidential recount, she said, “We can’t take our foot off the gas. Every vote counts. Just ask my friend Al Gore.” Clinton again attacked Trump’s refusal to say he’d respect the vote, saying, “nobody who’s ever run for president has ever said that.” She said that, as Secretary of State, she visited countries that really do rig their elections.

HILLARY CLINTON VOWS TO PUT ‘FAMILIES FIRST’ IN NEW AD — The 30-second ad, called “Families First,” is meant to outline what Clinton will do if she’s elected as president. “Far too many families today don’t earn what they need and don’t have the opportunities they deserve,” she says in the advertisement. “I believe families deserve quality education for their kids, childcare they can trust and afford, equal pay for women, and jobs they can really live on.” Click the image below to watch the ad.

CLINTON CONTRASTS HER EXPERIENCE WITH TRUMP’S IN NEW AD — The Clinton campaign released a new advertisement, called “Example,” that aims to contrast Clinton’s experience with Trump’s. The 60-second spot is narrated by actor Morgan Freeman, and focuses on Clinton’s experience. “Our children. They look up to us, what we value, how we treat others and now they’re looking to see what kind of leaders we choose, who we entrust our country and their future to,” says Freeman in the advertisement. “What example will we set, what kind of country will we be?” Click the image below to watch the advertisement.

TRUMP GETS IN SOME LAST JABS AT JEB BUSH via Nolan D. McCaskill of POLITICO Florida – A day after boasting that he’d “love” to fight Vice President Joe Biden, Trump took at jab at Bush with one hand while he slapped at Hillary Clinton with the other. “Hillary said, ‘Donald Trump took time off the campaign.’ Can you believe it?” Trump asked a group of a few hundred invited guests during a relatively small rally in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Here’s a woman who goes home and she goes to sleep all the time. Think of it. She’s got no energy whatsoever.” At his rally, Trump exaggerated that “everyone’s talking about the fact that I’ll do seven, eight, nine stops, I’ll make three or four major speeches” before boasting about his crowd size in Tallahassee … and the thousands more expected to attend his next stop in Kinston, North Carolina. “I got home at 1 o’clock in the morning,” Trump said, before comparing Clinton to the former Florida governor, who was considered a favorite to challenge Clinton in the general election. “Here’s a woman, she makes a speech for 15 minutes, she goes to home, goes to bed. Honestly, she has less energy than Jeb Bush. I mean it. I mean it.” Trump said he invoked his former Republican rival because “he’s open game” for not standing by his pledge to support the GOP nominee. “So he signed the pledge, right? But he didn’t honor it,” Trump said. “How do you – how do you live with yourself, you know?”

FLORIDA SCIENTISTS REQUEST MEETING WITH TRUMP ON CLIMATE CHANGE via Bruce Ritchie of POLITICO Florida — A group of Florida scientists who met with Gov. Rick Scott in 2014 to explain sea level rise are asking to meet with Trump to discuss climate change. Florida State University oceanography professor Jeff Chanton on Wednesday hand-delivered a letter to Trump to the Republican Party of Florida. The letter from 26 Florida scientists, including Chanton, challenges Trump’s statement that climate change is a “hoax.” The letter states that climate change is connected to an increase in severe weather events, sea level rise, coral bleaching and the spread of tropical diseases like Zika, West Nile Virus and Dengue fever. A Republican Party of Florida spokeswoman said the letter was being forwarded unopened to the Trump campaign. There was no immediate response from a Trump spokesperson. … The letter sent to Trump, Chanton said, similarly could elevate climate change as an issue in the election, which Chanton noted was not raised as an issue in the debates, and perhaps buoy Trump’s sagging poll numbers. “If he were to say I’ve been wrong about climate change and we need to do something about it, that might turn things around,” Chanton said, adding, “He needs a Hail Mary and I’m offering it to him.”

SOME MACHINES ARE FLIPPING VOTES, BUT THAT DOESN’T MEAN THEY’RE RIGGED via Pam Fessler of NPR — In every recent election, there have been reports of voters pressing one candidate’s name on a touch-screen machine, only to have the opponent’s name light up instead. It can be unnerving for voters and often leads to allegations that the machines have been “rigged” to favor one candidate over another. Enter election 2016, when the word “rigged” is more politically charged than ever. In the first few days of early voting, there are already scattered reports of vote-flipping machines in North Carolina, Texas and Nevada. … So what’s going on? Are the machines rigged? No, says just about every voting technology expert. “If you were actually trying to rig an election, it would be a very stupid thing to do, to let the voter know that you were doing it,” says Larry Norden, with the Brennan Center for Justice in New York. Norden thinks the real problem is that voting machines used in much of the country are old, more than 10 years in most places. The machines rely on outdated technology — some of it is from the 1990s — to calibrate the touch screens. And the hardware is starting to wear out.

***Smart employers know an inclusive workforce makes good business sense and helps secure Florida’s future. Only 30% of Floridians with disabilities are working. Explore the talent in the untapped 70%. Find out how at AbleTrust.org.***

DAYS UNTIL: Election Day – 12; First organizational session – 26; Thanksgiving – 28; UF versus FSU game – 30; Premiere of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – 49; Start of 2017 Legislative Session – 131.

MORE THAN 2.1 MILLION FLORIDIANS HAVE ALREADY VOTED – As of Thursday morning, 1,541,266 vote-by-mail ballots have been returned for the November general election, and 585,358 people have voted early across the state. The tallies were posted on the state Division of Elections website. Registered Republicans lead in vote-by-mail ballots to Democrats 649,610 to 605,792, but Democrats lead GOP voters in early voting 256,962 to 225,962. A total of 336,007 other party and no-party voters have returned ballots to their local supervisors of elections or voted early. The state’s website for vote-by-mail and early voting statistics is here. Lawmakers recently changed the name of traditional “absentee” ballots to “vote-by-mail” ballots.

GIF SHOWS EVERY FLORIDA VOTE SO FAR – Kevin Cate likes cool stuff. So he decided to visualize turnout data “with help from Travis Brooks and his company Proxeme,” Cate said in an email. The result: A GIF (“It took forever, but it was worth it”) of the first 1.6 million votes through Oct. 24 for the November general election. “We’ll update it periodically at FloridaTurnout.com,” he said. “Every single dot represents a real vote.”

FLORIDA ELECTRIC COOPERATIVES ASSOCIATION BACK SOLAR POWER AMENDMENT — Consumers for Smart Solar announced the Florida Electric Cooperatives Association has endorsed Amendment 1. The organization’s member cooperatives are not-for-profit electric companies organized for the purpose of supplying safe, reliable and affordable electric power to their consumer-owners.  FECA’s members serve approximately 2.2 million Floridians in 53 counties. “Florida’s not-for-profit electric cooperatives support solar, but it must be done right,” said FECA General Manager Bill Willingham. “The electric cooperatives’ focus is on protecting our consumer-owners and our employees while safely providing affordable and reliable power.  Amendment 1 would promote safe solar by cementing into the Constitution the ability for state and local officials to continue providing safety and consumer protections.  Amendment 1 also will protect those who cannot afford solar from being forced to subsidize the electric bills of those who can afford solar installations.” Amendment 1 is backed by the state’s major electric companies, and outlines the rules for solar power in Florida.

MAJORITY OF FLORIDIANS SUPPORT MEDICAL MARIJUANA, NEW UNF POLL FINDS — A new poll from the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University North Florida shows 73 percent of Florida voters support the medical marijuana constitutional amendment. That’s down 4 percentage points since the last poll, but is “still well above the 60 percent threshold needed for passage,” said Michael Binder, the faculty Director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory. The amendment has strong support across all age groups, with 84 percent of Floridians between the ages of 18 and 24 backing it.

MONEY KEEPS ROLLING IN FOR NEAL DUNN’S CD 2 BID via Jim Rosica of Florida Politics – Federal Election Commission “48-hour notices” show contributions this month from the Holland & Knight law firm’s Committee for Effective Government ($1,000) and the Action Committee for Rural Electrification ($2,500) … His two-year summary shows $1.2 million in contributions and $565,000 he lent the campaign. Dunn now has $56,165 in cash on hand. Dunn, a Panama City urological surgeon, faces Democrat Walt Dartland, Libertarian Rob Lapham, and a write-in. Dartland, to compare, has raised $107,552, including a $50,000 loan, FEC records show. That’s 6 percent of Dunn’s haul.

FORMER JACKSONVILLE SHERIFF EASY FAVORITE TO REPLACE NDER CRENSHAW via Nate Monroe of the Florida Times-Union — John Rutherford won’t quite say it, but he knows it: Barring an unprecedented upset, the former Jacksonville sheriff will be the next congressman from Florida’s 4th District. Rutherford, a Republican, is the establishment-backed front-runner to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Ander Crenshaw in the conservative district that includes parts of Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. Crenshaw, well known and liked in Jacksonville, is an even-tempered Republican who has sometimes rejected the ideological rigidity of colleagues influenced by the tea party. Rutherford is likely to adopt a different style, though the former lawman is a bit hard to pigeonhole on political ideology. And yet Rutherford decries the brinkmanship-style partisanship in Washington, D.C., often invoking one of his main campaign talking points: “The ideologues have taken over.” He’s begun forging ties with Republican colleagues and party congressional leadership (which is feuding with Trump). “Losing Ander Crenshaw, losing Corrine Brown … this is going to create a vacuum up there for Northeast Florida,” he said. “I really want to try and fill that vacuum even before they leave. I don’t want to be presumptive, but I don’t want to waste time either.”

DCCC DOCTORED PHOTO AD BECOMES COMEDY FODDER FOR STEPHEN COLBERT via Mitch Perry of Florida Politics — That controversial television ad that photoshopped Pinellas County GOP Congressman David Jolly with Donald Trump made for some fodder on a late night comedy show Tuesday, when “The Late Show’s” Stephen Colbert referred to it during his monologue. “Democrats couldn’t find any photos tying Jolly to Trump, so they just photoshopped Trump with his arm around Jolly,” Colbert said, showing a still photo from the ad. The CBS late night talk-show host continued. “And if you’re going to photoshop somebody, at least make it interesting. Make it a three-way with Trump, Jolly, and the American flag,” with an accompanying photoshopped picture ending the bit. Unlike some Republicans, Jolly has not endorsed the Republican presidential nominee, and in fact at times has been quite critical of Trump. Nevertheless, the Democratic Campaign Congressional Committee ran the ad over the past several weeks, despite calls by Jolly’s team to Crist and to local television stations to pull the ad. Click the image below to watch the clip.

ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP TARGETS DAVID JOLLY AGAIN via Charlie Frago of the Tampa Bay Times – The League of Conservation Voters has sunk another $100,000 in the 13th District Congressional race against incumbent Republican Jolly. The environmental group contributed $200,000 in a mail campaign against Jolly last week. Charlie Crist, Jolly’s Democratic opponent, has received good support from national Democratic organizations and their allies. Jolly, who angered the National Republican Congressional Committee earlier this year when he introduced campaign finance reform legislation, hasn’t received much at all. The LCV announced … it will run a digital ad charging that Jolly is too friendly to the oil industry. Crist has received endorsements from most of the major environmental groups.

HAPPENING TONIGHT — TED DEUTCH CAMPAIGN HOSTS CANDIDATE MEET-AND-GREETS — The campaign is hosting a series of meet-and-greets to give voters a chance to meet with Rep. Deutch ahead of the election. Deutch will attend an event at 6 p.m. at the Rusty Hook Tavern, 125 N. Riverside Drive in Pompano Beach.

LATEST POLL SHOWS DANA YOUNG MAINTAINING LEAD IN SD 18 via Jenna Buzzacco-Foerster of Florida Politics – Young continues to lead Democrat Bob Buesing … A new poll by St. Pete Polls … showed nearly 39 percent of likely voters were backing Young, compared to 34 percent backing Buesing. Joe Redner, an independent candidate, received 15 percent support. More than 9 percent of respondents said they were still undecided, while 3 percent said they were backing Sheldon Upthegrove. The automated poll of 950 Florida likely voters was conducted on Oct. 25. It has a margin of error of 3.2 percent. The poll showed 32 percent of independent voters and 59 percent of Republican voters were backing Young. She also received support from about 22 percent of Democrats. Buesing received the backing of 49 percent of Democrats and 37 percent of independent voters. The poll found 17 percent of Republicans backed Buesing.

OBAMA CUTS COMMERCIAL FOR JOSE JAVIER RODRIGUEZ IN FLORIDA SENATE RACE via David Smiley of the Miami Herald – The Florida Democratic Party on Wednesday released a commercial cut by President Barack Obama touting the state senate campaign of State Rep. Jose Javier Rodriguez. Obama recently announced his support of Rodriguez, D-Miami, and a dozen other candidates running for state office in Florida. His down-ballot endorsements are part of a broader effort by the president effort to influence state races across the country.

***Host your Election Night Watch Party at the Governors Club, Tallahassee’s premier business, social and political venue! Party packages are available for all budgets; rooms for 50-450 guests. For more information or to book a celebration, contact Laura Kalinoski, Director of Catering at 850-205-0665 or [email protected]. Visit www.GovClub.com***

ASSIGNMENT EDITORS: Gov. Scott will highlight job growth during a press conference at 10 a.m. at AeroMod International, 100 Aerospace Drive in Melbourne.

ASSIGNMENT EDITORS: Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam and U.S.D.A. Co-Incident Commander Shelly Phillips will hold an event to showcase a sterile fly release chamber at 9:45 a.m. at the Big Pine Key Fishing Lodge, 33000 Overseas Hwy. in Big Pine Key. The sterile insect technique is a scientifically proven eradication measure created by the United State Department of Agriculture in the 1950s. It is currently being used to eradicate the screwworm and protect Key deer and other warm-blooded animals.

TWEET, TWEET: @Fineout: Great disturbance…@TomLeeFL now on Twitter….have to assume this is staff. Hard to imagine Lee unplugged on social media

SUSPENDED DRIVER’S LICENSE COMPOUNDS REGGIE FULLWOOD’S WOES via AG Gancarski of Florida Politics – On Aug. 25, days before the primary election, Fullwood received a ticket for running a red light. Fullwood failed to pay the $262 ticket, and 60 days after the infraction, his license was suspended. An unpaid traffic ticket and a suspended driver’s license, sadly, comprise the least of Fullwood’s troubles. On Friday, federal prosecutors filed a motion to collect “$60,552.80 … the amount of proceeds he obtained as a result of the offense to which he plead guilty.” In the plea deal struck in late September in his fraud case involving the Jacksonville Democrat using campaign funds for personal expenses, Fullwood agreed to the forfeiture money judgement.

DECEMBER HEARING SET FOR ENVIRONMENTAL AMENDMENT 1 LAWSUIT via Jim Rosica of Florida Politics – Lawyers for the Legislature and environmental advocacy groups are set to argue over a summary judgment motion Dec. 5 before Circuit Judge Charles W. Dodson in Tallahassee. Florida Wildlife Federation, Sierra Club and others had filed suit over the “Water and Land Legacy Amendment,” the constitutional change approved by voters in 2014 that mandates state spending for land and water conservation. “Plaintiffs are entitled to summary judgment because (the amendment) prohibits the Legislature from appropriating land acquisition and restoration funds for any other purpose, but the Legislature appropriated most Amendment 1 monies to salaries and ordinary expenses of four state agencies,” their motion says. Those agencies are the Department of Environmental Protection, Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, the Department of State, and the Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services. Attorneys for state lawmakers responded: “While plaintiffs might have struck a different balance than that struck by the Legislature … the Constitution commits that policy decision to the Legislature. Within constitutional limits, the Legislature alone is responsible for the appropriation of public funds.”

ECONOMISTS WRAP UP CONSIDERATION OF FELONS’ VOTING RIGHTS via Florida Politics – The proposed Florida Voting Restoration Amendment would automatically return voting rights to felons who have completed their sentences. The Financial Impact Estimating Conference has been struggling to figure out a price tag for the amendment. Changes to the state constitution first require a cost analysis. A final report is forthcoming. A ballot summary says: “This amendment restores the voting rights of Floridians with felony convictions after they complete all terms of their sentence including parole or probation. The amendment would not apply to those convicted of murder or sexual offenses, who would continue to be permanently barred from voting unless the governor and Cabinet vote to restore their voting rights on a case-by-case basis.” State elections officials certified in September that supporters had collected enough signatures to place the initiative on the 2018 ballot, pending review by the Florida Supreme Court. One question affecting the cost is whether ex-offenders need to be “pre-cleared” before they regain the right to vote.

MENTAL HEALTH QUESTIONS ON FLORIDA BAR APPLICATION ARE DISCRIMINATORY, SUIT SAYS via Jim Rosica of Florida Politics – The body that administers Florida’s bar exam discriminates by asking applicants about their mental health, according to a federal lawsuit filed this month. A “John Doe” plaintiff filed suit in Tallahassee, where the Florida Board of Bar Examiners is headquartered. He says the Board violates the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) by asking aspiring lawyers about their mental health and substance abuse history in the previous five years, including which medications they were prescribed. The Board wants to know if any condition, left untreated, “could impair or limit (one’s) ability to practice law in a competent and professional manner.” The board doesn’t question those same applicants, however, about any “potentially dangerous physical disabilities,” the complaint says. “If such questions were necessary to protect the public, the Board would require individuals with potentially harmful physical disabilities to answer them,” it says. The Board already is under investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice for its “failure to comply” with ADA provisions, the complaint adds.

DAVID ALTMAIER PROMISES ACTIVE ROLE IN WORKERS’ COMPENSATION DEBATE via Michael Moline of Florida Politics – The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation has no plans to draft its own legislative fix for rising workers’ compensation rates, but that doesn’t mean regulators are ignoring the problem, Insurance Commissioner Altmaier said … “We expect to be actively involved in that conversation,” Altmaier told reporters as his office’s biannual industry conference wound down. “We are going to have opinions on how potential legislation protects injured workers and how they access the workers’ comp market and things of that nature,” he said. “Just because we don’t have a specific bill that we’ll be running doesn’t mean we won’t necessarily be playing a leading role in that conversation.” Altmaier’s office is working on specific legislation targeting abuse of assignment of benefits agreements, blamed for driving up property insurance premiums. That problem has been percolating for years, Altmaier said. Workers’ compensation emerged suddenly this spring, when the Florida Supreme Court struck down limits on attorney fees in lawsuits against insurance companies and on temporary total disability benefits.

OIR: TRADE SECRET CAN’T BE CLAIMED WITHOUT LITIGATION via Christine Sexton of POLITICO Florida – Insurance companies claiming the data that they are submitting to the state quarterly is trade secret and cannot be published are going to have to “file a complaint and litigate the matter.” That’s the message OIR’s Chief Assistant General Counsel Monica Ross delivered to a crowded room of insurance industry representatives on Wednesdayduring the Office of Insurance Regulation’s 2016 Industry Conference. Ross said that the office has appealed Leon County Circuit Court Judge James C. Hankinson‘s ruling that information submitted through the Quarterly and Supplemental Reporting System is trade secret and should be protected from public disclosure. Among other things, the data includes the number of policies written by company by county. The challenge was brought by State Farm Florida Insurance Company in May 2014.

INSURANCE REGULATORS PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DETAILS OF LEGISLATIVE PRIORITIES via Michael Moline of Florida Politics – Cracking down on shady contractors and attorneys is the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation’s top priority for the 2017 legislative session, but officials made clear they intend to protect consumers’ rights in drafting their proposals. “It’s our No. 1 priority, but we would like to fix it in a surgical way,” Caitlin Murray, the department’s director for government affairs, said during the office’s biannual industry conference in Tallahassee. She was referring to assignment of benefits contracts, a way for property insurance policyholders to sign away their insurance rights to contractors or attorneys in exchange for quicker repairs. Critics contend they are easily abused, leading to inflated or shoddy repairs and rising premiums. For example, Citizens Property Insurance Corp. blamed these deals for a 6.4 percent rate hike that takes effect Feb. 1. Fully 72 percent of rate filing increases were for increases thus far this year, Murray said, suggesting much of the blame falls on these so-called AOBs. As with its other legislative priorities, the office plans to confer with all interested parties in drafting a legislative solution, she said.

HURRICANE FLOODS HOMELESS HOUSING IN HISTORIC ST. AUGUSTINE via Jason Dearen of the Associated Press – County officials had ordered people to stay indoors because of evening pesticide spraying to control a post-hurricane mosquito scourge. Yet the town’s only homeless shelter was inundated with water. With the autumn air turning chilly, there was no place for homeless people to go. “I know we’re close to Disney, but we only have so much magic,” said Kassy Guy-Johanessen, who during the spraying handed out hospital masks and water so people could wash themselves off if they were worried about being exposed. Homes in many coastal counties in the Southeast sustained flood damage, but the loss of homeless facilities used by dozens of working poor appears to have hit this vulnerable population much harder here than in other areas. Besides the loss of shelter, the hurricane also knocked out businesses where some homeless people worked, leaving them even poorer. The storm eliminated nearly a third of St. Johns County’s shelter capacity of 327 beds: 88 beds lost in the main homeless crisis center and five more when a falling tree took out a bungalow that housed a homeless family, including three children.

NATURE CONSERVANCY REMAKES EXECUTIVE TEAM via Florida Politics – Greg Knecht was promoted to Deputy State Director from directing the Conservancy’s land protection program in Florida, executive director Temperince Morgan said in a Wednesday statement. Kristina Serbesoff-King was elevated to Director of Science and Planning after being interim Director of Conservation. in new hires, Marilyn Bauer is becoming Director of Strategic Communications and Marketing, Steve Coates is Director of Field Initiatives, Heidi Albritton is now Director of Operations, and Rosemary Mann is Director of Development.

NEW LOBBYING REGISTRATIONS

Nicole Jefferson, Amazon Corporate LLC

Jonathan Kilman, Foley & Lardner: Infinite Energy

HAPPY BIRTHDAY to devoted Sunburn reader and GOP activist extraordinaire Deborah Cox Roush and the Tampa Bay Business Journal’s Alexis Muellner.