A.G. Gancarski
Robust Election Day turnout allowed Duval County Republicans to take the raw vote lead over the Democrats Tuesday morning at 10:10, after starting the day down by over 4,200 votes.
At 6:00 p.m., the lead was winnowed down to barely 1,700 votes for Republicans: 177,844 to 176,119.
That’s tight: barely a 1,700-vote spread out of nearly 430,000 votes. With turnout at 73 percent, that suggests an electorate
Republicans dominated the vote-by-mail part of early voting, amassing a 7,600-vote lead, while the actual on-site early voting was won by Democrats with an 10,554-vote margin.
In 2012, Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama 51 percent to 48 percent in Duval County.
Romney, however, was a much different candidate from Trump, and those following elections closely speculate on how much of the GOP women vote will go to Hillary Clinton, how much of the GOP and millennial vote will go to Gary Johnson, and whether the enthusiasm gap in the African-American community for Clinton that some Duval Dems have mentioned privately will cause the final tallies to dovetail.
As well, there are questions as to how many of the newer Republicans were simply Dixiecrats who voted Republican while maintaining a Democratic registration until the Trump Train rolled through in March.
This post will be updated.
