A.G. Gancarski
Introducing one of three winners of JAXUSA awards at a Tuesday luncheon, Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry was in civic booster mode.
Curry took stock of a “really busy year … a really good year,” in which “the Chamber, civic and business leaders and the city council … demonstrated to the public what is possible.”
Curry referred to Jacksonville’s “international footprint and brand,” before saying that “the best is yet to come” and urging people to “rest up and buckle up.”
And a panel of economists that spoke soon after the mayor concurred that, given the large amount of unknowns in 2017, buckling up may be good advice.
The economy will grow and change in the near future, in large part due to deregulation and stimulus money to be printed out of the ether.
But it is by no means certain that Jacksonville will be able to fully exploit that.
****
The feature event at Tuesday’s JAXUSA quarterly luncheon: bankers and economists discussing Jacksonville’s place in the changing global economy.
Leslie Slover, Regional Head of Deutsche Bank, moderated the discussion between two panelists: Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank’s Chief U.S. Economist, and Nathaniel Karp, BBVA Compass Bank’s Chief U.S. Economist.
Hooper and Karp concurred in their assessment of Jacksonville’s advantages — and disadvantages.
Hooper noted that in a climate of financial stimulus like most are anticipating from the Donald Trump administration, Jacksonville is an “attractive place to locate,” mostly because of low costs.
However, Hooper cautioned that a paucity of skilled workers may be a concern.
“You don’t want to tell people you’re running out of workers,” the Deutsche Bank economist cautioned.
Karp echoed those concerns, saying that Jacksonville’s labor force is weak in the STEM Sector — a campaign priority of Mayor Curry’s.
In other words, Jacksonville is going to have to figure out how to compete, in terms of STEM jobs, to get to where it needs to be in terms of the larger economy.
****
The economists spent a small portion of their program on Jacksonville, touching on a variety of subjects including NAFTA, Fed policy, conditions in Europe, and the Trump effect.
Hooper said that tweaks to NAFTA need to “go light,” lest a “huge can of worms” be opened.
Karp echoed that point, noting that technological improvements, rather than trade deals, are responsible for attrition of jobs from the industrial sector.
Karp also noted that the integration of border states in the U.S. and Mexico is often greater than the integration of states like California to the rest of the U.S., due to trans-border assembly of products.
****
Regarding the Fed and Janet Yellen, the chair who served as a pinata for the president-elect before Election Day, Hooper noted that while Trump was critical of low interest rates as a candidate, “President Trump will prefer lower rates.”
Changes at the Fed, Hooper added, would “not be to the benefit of the new president.”
Hooper speculated that Yellen and Trump “could grow to appreciate each other.”
Karp suggested a balance between hawkish and dovish members of the Fed’s board, as Trump works toward a positive outcome (potentially) of enhancing GDP growth without too much inflation.
Both concurred that there will be a real increase in financial liquidity, to drive supply-side growth in the manner of Reaganomics.
Hooper noted that the “markets have good reason to be ebullient,” given expected spending on infrastructure and a rolling back of nettlesome regulations.
GDP, Hooper suggested, could grow by a full point.
That is, if Trump avoids a trade war.
****
Before the economists had their say, some hardware was given out, via the JAXUSA Jax Partnership awards.
Mike Butler of J.P. Morgan won the International Leader of the Year award.
The Haskell Company garnered the International Company of the Year Award for mid-size companies.
Fidelity Information Systems Global won the International Company of the Year Award.
