Georgia gubernatorial race a harbinger of things to come in Florida

Take a few moments to read the opening paragraph of the New York Times story about Tuesday’s Republican runoff in the Georgia gubernatorial race.

“Brian Kemp, Georgia’s secretary of state, captured the Republican nomination for governor Tuesday, easily dispatching the preferred candidate of the state party establishment after a series of provocative ads that evoked President Trump’s incendiary politics and a well-timed endorsement from the president himself.”

You may know where I am going with this…

First, swap out Brian Kemp for Ron DeSantis.

Next, change “Georgia’s secretary of state” to “a third-term congressman from northeast Florida.”

And now you have the lede of the story the New York Times will likely write the day after the GOP primary in Florida’s gubernatorial race.

Just look at how the polling in the Georgia race tracked:

Here’s what the impact of an endorsement from @realDonaldTrump looks like in Georgia Governor’s race. Note the endorsement came late afternoon on 7/18. pic.twitter.com/OoDgaLdlgg

— Scott Paradise (@swparadise) July 25, 2018

One minute the race is neck-and-neck, the next it’s a blow-out. The only thing that really changed is Trump’s endorsement.

What’s happening in Florida is even more stark.

One minute, Adam Putnam is leading DeSantis by seventeen points, the next DeSantis is up by as much as two touchdowns. The only thing that really changed is Trump tweeting out his “full endorsement“of DeSantis.

It’s probably no coincidence that Kemp shares the same political consulting team, Something Else Strategies, as DeSantis.

DeSantis’ campaign manager, Brad Herold, says the parallels between Georgia and Florida are “obvious.”

“You had a Trump backed, conservative candidate, running against a special interest funded establishment politician,” said Herold. “I expect to see similar results in Florida in a month.”