Scott Powers
Republican Gov. Rick Scott has slipped ahead of Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson in the latest Mason-Dixon poll of Florida’s 2018 U.S. Senate race, which also shows a stark difference of opinion between men and women.
The new poll, conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday, gives the two-term governor a three-point lead, 47 to 44, over the three-term incumbent U.S. senator, though that gap keeps the results within the survey’s four-point margin of error. The last time Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy asked on the race, in its February Mason-Dixon Florida Poll, Nelson led 45 to 44. In October of last year, it was 44-44.
Both results also fell within the margins of error.
“The Senate race between incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson and term-limited Republican Governor Rick Scott continues to be one of the most competitive in the country,” the Washington D.C.- and Jacksonville-based pollster stated.
This time, Mason-Dixon polled 625 registered Florida voters by telephone, choosing those who identified themselves as likely to vote in the November general election.
Scott and Nelson both have clearly defined camps of support, and those camps reveal a wide and growing split between men and women on the race. Scott’s getting 55 percent of the men’s vote to Nelson’s 34 percent, according to the latest Mason-Dixon poll. Meanwhile, Nelson is getting 54 percent of the women’s vote to Scott’s 39 percent. Both of those gaps have opened wider since its February poll.
Not surprisingly, Nelson holds commanding leads among Democrats and black voters, and has an edge with Hispanic voters, 44-39 percent; while Scott has no problem with the Republican vote; leads solidly among white voters, 58-36 percent; and has a slight edge with voters without party affiliations, leading 47 percent to 43 percent for Nelson.
Scott is easily leading in North Florida and Southwest Florida and leads Central Florida 53 percent to 40 percent; while Nelson has a comfortable lead in Southeast Florida and a tiny edge, 45 percent to 44 percent, in the Tampa Bay region, according to the poll.
Younger voters like Nelson. Older voters like Scott.
Scott has better name recognition, and received better favorable/unfavorable ratios. Seven percent of those surveyed didn’t know who Nelson was, while 3 percent didn’t know who Scott was.
Of those surveyed, 44 percent had favorable views on Scott and 33 percent had unfavorable views. Nelson was rated as favorable by 36 percent, and as unfavorable by 31 percent.
Mason-Dixon also asked about President Donald Trump: 43 percent of those surveyed in this Florida poll had a favorable view of him, and 46 percent had an unfavorable view.
