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Voter registration gives GOP optimism
With the primary less than two weeks away, those Republicans and Democrats registered to participate are now locked in. The two major parties constitute 72.5 percent of the more than 13 million registered voters.
Based on recently released numbers from the Florida Secretary of State, a blue wave does not appear to be developing in Florida. Places such as California may have different circumstances that could be the engine that leads to a Democratic takeover of the House, but Florida may only provide minimal assistance in that regard.
Since the last primary book closing figures two years ago, there are about 160,000 more registered Republicans, while 150,000 more Floridians registered as Democrats. Among Florida’s 27 Congressional districts, 18 saw increases in GOP registrations while 19 districts somehow recorded fewer Democratic voters.
Voters may still register for the general election until October 8.
Democrats are aiming at two big targets in South Florida, where the party added to its overwhelming advantages in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County.
In District 26, Republican Carlos Curbelo is trying to hang on (see the latest poll below) in a district won by Hillary Clinton by double digits in 2016. Democrats added 2,000 voters to 1,000 for Republicans, bringing the Democratic registration advantage to more than 22,000 voters.
The retirement of Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in District 27 is the best chance for a Democratic flip. Democrats have a 14,000-voter advantage, though both parties showed slight decreases over the past two years.
There are other races worth watching, including District 6 (held by retiring Republican Ron DeSantis), where Republican registrations rose by 8,000 while Democrats slightly decreased by a handful of voters. District 15 (held by retiring Republican Dennis Ross) is nearly even in voter registrations, with both parties losing voters over the last two years.
District 16, featuring a likely matchup of incumbent Republican Vern Buchanan and Democratic challenger David Shapiro, shows both parties gaining about 7,000 registrants. Republicans hold the edge by about 46,000.
Republican Rep. Brian Mast is trying to hold his seat in District 18, which grew by 5,000 Republicans and 2,000 Democrats. Republicans hold an advantage of about 20,000 registrants.
Have the voter registration efforts from students of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland having any success? That remains to be seen.
The school is located in District 22, represented by Democrat Ted Deutch of Boca Raton, where there were approximately 5,000 fewer Democratic registrants from 2016, while GOP registrations fell by 4,500.
Early voting is underway, which can reveal some tangible evidence of intensity one way or the other. According to FloridaTurnout.com, returned mail ballots and a small number of on-site voters showed 47,000 more Republicans than Democrats had voted through Tuesday.
Democrats traditionally outperform Republicans during the early voting period, especially if there is a competitive race to help drive turnout. A competitive primary for governor and a few key races for House seats, including Miami, should help bump up the numbers.
But the same goes for Republicans.
Nelson leads slightly among Latinos
A recent poll among Latinos brought some good news, mixed with caution, for Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. The survey, commissioned by an alliance of nonpartisan and progressive groups, found that 44 percent of Latino voters favor Nelson, while 41 percent support his challenger, Republican Gov. Rick Scott.
Nelson’s camp and supporters are clearly expecting higher percentages among this group of voters.
Nelson held a lead of 52 to 32 percent among Latinos in Orlando, while Scott had a 49 to 35 advantage in Miami. Between Orange and Osceola County in Central Florida, more than 20,000 new Latino voters signed up to vote over the past two years.
In Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach County, a total of 33,000 more Latinos have registered. Hillsborough County, with another thriving Latino community, added about 5,000 additional registrants since 2016.
Among issues most important to them, 80 percent said “creating jobs” was the number one issue. Expect Scott to focus on that.
Expanding health coverage was also high on the list. Expect Nelson to pound away at Scott on that.
Also, in the top four was immigration and rebuilding Puerto Rico. Among respondents, 41 percent felt Scott had done enough to welcome Puerto Ricans into Florida while 33 percent felt that way about Nelson. By comparison, 72 percent felt Trump had not done enough for Puerto Rican evacuees.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 points. It was conducted by Global Strategy Group.
Nelson drops Russian claims
At a recent campaign stop, Nelson made a startling claim that the Russians had already penetrated Florida voting systems. The three-term Democrat told the Tampa Bay Times, “Russians are in Florida’s elections records,” and they had “penetrated certain counties in the state and they now have free reign to move about.”
When pressed for further details, Nelson said those were “classified.” After county elections officials said they had not received any alerts from Washington, Scott demanded proof of Nelson’s claim.
“This cannot be swept under the rug,” he said. “Bill Nelson must come clean and provide a thorough explanation. Elections are not something to try to scare people about.”
For a few days, Nelson was silent on the accusation, but by Wednesday, he seemed to be making his concerns more clear. Nelson is now returning to the original message he and Rubio shared with the state’s 67 county elections supervisors last month.
“It would be foolish to think that the Russians are not continuing to do what they did in Florida in 2016,” Nelson said. “It is unfortunate that some Florida officials are trying to use this for partisan purposes.”
While the Russians used different means to try and affect elections around the country, no direct evidence emerged that they successfully penetrated local elections systems or affected any votes. Democrats and most Republicans agree the Russians will continue to try to cause mischief.
Rubio won’t challenge Trump in 2020
After the November midterms, those wishing to challenge Trump will begin to make their intentions officially known. Democrats are expected to mount a Kentucky Derby-esque rush into the starting gate.
Any Republican wishing to take on Trump will likely wait until the Mueller investigation concludes or the president tweets one too many times. They may also wait to see if his foreign policy, tariff, and tax strategies pay off.
One of those pledging not to run against him is Republican Sen. Marco Rubio. Others may feel it their duty to take on Trump, but it won’t be Florida’s junior Senator.
“I’m not primarying the president and no one else should either, unless we want to lose the White House,” he told the Associated Press. “I’m kind of approaching every day as if the U.S. Senate is the last place I’ll ever serve in public office and trying to make that meaningful.”
Rubio is not ruling out a future run, but pledges to stay put for the time being. Ironically, when he made his run for president in 2016, he said his days in the Senate were over even if he did not earn the nomination. He was convinced to run for a second term after Trump earned the nomination.
In other words, circumstances can lead one to change one’s mind.
Rubio, Coons urge UN investigation into murders of Russian reporters
Another case of suspicious deaths with possible Russian ties has two bipartisan Senators wanting answers. Following the murders of three Russian journalists in the Central African Republic, Rubio and Delaware Democrat Chris Coons are calling on the United Nations to conduct a “full and impartial investigation” into the killings.
The journalists were investigating the activities of a Russian paramilitary group. Rubio and Coons wrote to U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, asking him to get to the bottom of it.
“They were reportedly in the country investigating the activities of Wagner, a private Russian mercenary group that has been deployed in Syria and Ukraine and that is reported to be linked to Yevgeny Prigozhin, a catering magnate close to Vladimir Putin,” the Senators wrote.
“The murders of journalists come amid increased Russian involvement in the Central African Republic,” they continued. “With UN approval, the Russian Federation has delivered arms and ammunition and provided instructors for the CAR military.”
The journalists were part of a media group supported by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, an exiled opponent of Putin. Russian state media has blamed the killings on a “robbery.”
“We respectfully ask you to engage the relevant UN mechanisms to conduct a full and impartial investigation into the circumstances of the murder of Orkhan Dzhemal, Kirill Radchenko, and Alexander Rastorguyev, and to ensure full cooperation by the governments of the Central African Republic and the Russian Federation,” they said.
The journalists had coordinated all of their movements with a United Nations-affiliated mission in the Central African Republic. The mission also recommended their driver, who survived the ambush.
Freedom Caucus leader campaigns for Gaetz, DeSantis
Three of the leading members of the House Freedom Caucus will be together on Saturday in a get-out-the-vote effort in North Florida. Republican Reps. DeSantis and Matt Gaetz will be joined by Ohio conservative firebrand Jim Jordan for campaign stops in Pensacola, Navarre, and Destin in the Panhandle.
Gaetz has two Republican challengers for his Congressional District 1 seat, while DeSantis is now the front-runner for the GOP nomination for governor. Jordan will be welcomed by the supporters of both candidates, especially after accusations against him for ignoring abuse of athletes by a doctor while at Ohio State University appear to crumbling following a recanting by his primary accuser.
The stops in solid Republican territory is billed as The Freedom Tour. All three are members of the House Judiciary Committee and have all been vocal critics of the investigation into collusion against Trump and are sharply critical of the actions of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.
Several members of the Freedom Caucus came together to file articles of impeachment against Rosenstein. Gaetz is part of that effort, but DeSantis did not join in.
Though he will not be in the House in January, DeSantis joins with Gaetz in supporting Jordan’s attempt to become Speaker of the House.
“I think it would great. I think all the lobbyists would be quaking in their boots if Jim Jordan was speaker,” DeSantis said. “The swamp would immediately start to drain. … Jim would bring change to fight for the taxpayer and fight the swamp.”
Lawson opens big lead in CD 5 primary
There are several reasons to think that the Democratic primary for District 5 between incumbent Al Lawson of Tallahassee and former Mayor Alvin Brown of Jacksonville is a race that will go down to the wire. The biggest centers on the fact that Brown’s home of Duval County has more Democratic voters than the other 7 counties combined.
For his part, Lawson would point to a recent poll showing him leading Brown by a margin of 50-28 percent. The survey includes those that have already voted, who went for Lawson 52-42. Among those not yet voting, Lawson has a 49-26 advantage.
Last week, the incumbent was endorsed by 37 of the 48 members of the Congressional Black Caucus. Brown’s hometown newspaper, the Florida Times-Union, as well as the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, has also endorsed Lawson.
Lawson avoided a potentially sticky situation when he reversed himself and joined the call for a special session of the Florida Legislature to repeal the state’s Stand Your Ground Law. He said the law, which he co-sponsored, was being misapplied thereby allowing some to “get away with murder.”
Murphy touts provision of National Defense funding bill
On Monday, Trump signed into law the John S. McCain National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019 (NDAA). The $710 billion measure that funds the military and veterans included a provision spearheaded by Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy of Winter Park.
She introduced the provision as a stand-alone bill in February designed to help the nearly 250,000 service members who leave the military each year achieve their professional and personal goals once they transition to civilian life. Murphy, who serves on the House Armed Services Committee, successfully advocated for the provision as a member of the conference committee appointed to reconcile the differences between the House and Senate versions of the bill.
Murphy was the first freshman Democratic member appointed to the NDAA conference committee in nearly 20 years.
“Our nation’s men and women in uniform are some of the most skilled, best trained, and hardest working individuals, yet many of them struggle with their transition to civilian life,” said Murphy. “I’m incredibly proud that my bipartisan initiative to improve the training these departing service members receive is now law. Whether these service members want to attend school, learn a trade, or start a small business — this law will empower them to succeed.”
Trump signs Webster’s cybersecurity bill
On Tuesday, Trump signed legislation designed to address cybersecurity risks for small businesses. Republican Rep. Daniel Webster of Clermont sponsored the House version of the final bill signed by Trump.
The bill is designed to help small businesses better address their cybersecurity risks to help them “survive — and thrive — in the current world of technological risks.
“This bill will provide small businesses in my district, state and across the country with the tools they need to meet the threats and challenges of the modern world,” said Webster. “These small businesses are more susceptible to attacks due to the limited access to the tools they need to prepare for such an event.
The bill directs the Director of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), a branch of the U.S. Department of Commerce, to disseminate clear and concise resources, which are defined as guidelines, tools, best practices, standards, methodologies, and other ways of providing information. Implementation of the NIST Framework into these small businesses will protect business owners, their employees, and their customer base, all while contributing positively to the economy.
“As the owner of a multigenerational small business, I know what small businesses can accomplish when equipped and empowered with the right tools,” Webster further commented. “Recently, when my own business was attacked, I experienced the havoc a hacker can cause and the importance of cybersecurity. I thank President Trump for swiftly signing this bill into law.”
Bilirakis disabled vet bill becomes law
Another member is proud of a provision included in the defense authorization bill signed by the president. GOP Rep. Gus Bilirakis of Palm Harbor announced the Special Priority on Aircraft and Coverage Equity Act (SPACE-A) was added to the final bill.
The provision will allow Veterans, who have a 100% service-connected disability, to utilize a benefit to travel on military aircraft when there is extra space onboard. Currently, only military retirees were the only veterans entitled to a seat on these flights.
“The brave men and women who served our country, and returned home injured, have already paid a big price on our behalf,” Bilirakis said in a news release. “If there is space available for travel on a military aircraft, there is no reason our 100% disabled Veterans shouldn’t be on that flight.”
While touting his success in getting the measure through Congress, Bilirakis did not take credit for the idea.
“Like most good ideas, this legislation originated from a local constituent,” he said. “President Reagan once talked about how much we can accomplish if we don’t care who gets the credit.”
Curbelo gets some good news
This week, the Cook Political Report changed the status of five Congressional races. Four of those changes favor Democrats while one provided good news for a Republican.
That Republican is Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Kendall, who is in a tough re-election fight in the Democrat-plurality District 26. His race against Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has shifted from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Republican.”
“Curbelo should have no business surviving in a suburban Miami seat that voted for Hillary Clinton 57 percent to 41 percent in 2016,” said Cook analyst David Wasserman. “But the Republican hasn’t been shy about his support for immigration reform and a carbon tax or calling the president’s remarks in Helsinki ‘unacceptable’ and ‘deeply alarming, and private polls continue to show him in surprisingly good shape for reelection.”
Mucarsel-Powell has raised more than $1.6 million for her campaign, while Curbelo maintains a two-to-one advantage with $2.6 million cash on hand. She is a former official at Florida International University.
Democrats are counting on flipping the seat as they seek the 23 needed to regain a majority in the House.
“It’s still a competitive race, but Curbelo starts out well ahead and the burden is on Democrats to link him to the president,” Wasserman.
On Wednesday, Curbelo received more good news. A poll conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) showed Curbelo with a 48-41 percent lead over Mucarsel-Powell.
On this day in the headlines
August 17, 1977 — Former President Gerald Ford is supporting President Jimmy Carter’s controversial initiative to turn over the Panama Canal to the Panamanians. While the man Carter defeated in 1976 is backing the move, a potential opponent in 1980, former California Republican Gov. Ronald Reagan, blasted the decision.
On the same day, Carter nominated Alabama judge Frank Johnson to be the new FBI Director, following the resignation of Clarence Kelley, who is stepping down. (The following day, Johnson’s name was pulled following the discovery of health issues).
(NOTE: All of this news shared the front page with the reporting on the death of Elvis Presley the same day at his Graceland mansion in Memphis, Tenn.)
August 17, 2012 — U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and Rep. Connie Mack IV both said they are ready for a debate, but will it be in the same place? Mack won the GOP primary three days ago and says he is ready to take on Nelson, who is seeking his third term in the U.S. Senate.
“I would hope Sen. Nelson would not hide from debates,” said the four-term Congressman from Fort Myers. The Nelson camp said their man is ready but was not sure if Mack would be there in the end. A Nelson spokesman said Mack “has a history of canceling appearances after he’s booked.”
Keefe tapped for U.S. Attorney post
Via the News Service of Florida: Fort Walton Beach attorney Lawrence Keefe will be nominated by Trump to serve as U.S. attorney for the Northern District of Florida … The nomination of Keefe, a partner in the firm Keefe, Anchors & Gordon, is subject to approval by the U.S. Senate.
After Trump’s announcement, Rubio … issued a statement saying he “strongly” supports the Keefe nomination. U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz … worked for Keefe’s firm while serving in the Florida House, according to financial-disclosure reports filed with the state. The Northern District of Florida stretches from Pensacola to Gainesville and includes areas such as Tallahassee and Panama City.
Breaking free of big money
The winner of the heated Democratic District 5 primary between incumbent Al Lawson of Tallahassee and former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown will almost certainly represent the district in Congress. Still, a Republican awaits.
Republican Virginia Fuller is a nurse who moved to Florida from California two years ago, according to her campaign website. She has yet to report in the general election.
She rails against big money, claiming both Democrats are raking in Republican dollars. Fuller has a reassuring message to the voters that she is independent of big money influence.
Fuller told a recent candidate forum that she wasn’t getting any money at all. The most recent FEC report backs that up.
