Peter Schorsch
Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
On the eve of the first debate for U.S. Senate (see ‘Wake Up Early’ below), the newest poll numbers counter the competition and show a tightening race.
Incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson is barely leading GOP challenger Rick Scott by 0.7 percent, at 47.4 percent to 46.7 percent, according to the latest from St. Pete Polls.
With a 2 percent margin of error, the two candidates are in the proverbial “statistical dead heat.” Another 6 percent are undecided.
Keep in mind that St. Pete Polls was among the most accurate in August’s primary contests.
Here’s the fine print: “The poll was conducted through an automated phone call polling system. The results were then weighted to account for proportional differences between the respondents’ demographics and the demographics of the active general election voter population for the state of Florida.
“The weighting demographics used were: political party, race, age, gender and media market. The voters polled were chosen at random within the registered voter population within the state of Florida. Voters who said they were not planning to vote were excluded from the results below.
“The scientific results … have a sample size of 2,313 and a 2 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level.”
Stay tuned — Florida Politics also will have results for the Governor’s race in Tuesday’s SUNBURN.
Bracer
Bruce Nathan has lost his long-shot attempt to get back on the ballot for governor as a no-party affiliated (NPA) candidate.
Circuit Judge Karen Gievers ruled against Nathan, a physical therapist from Stuart who’s never held elected office. He had qualified and lost as a Republican in the August primary.
“There is no path forward for a non-nominated candidate to convert to a general election NPA candidate or write-in candidate,” Gievers wrote in an order last week.
“Mr. Nathan was and remains free to change his party affiliation, but he has no right to claim he qualified for the general election ballot when the office for which he actually qualified, during the only applicable qualifying period, was the nomination of the party with which he signed an oath indicating his affiliation.”
Nathan had sued the Division of Elections by acting his own lawyer. Ashley Davis, an attorney for the state, had argued at a hearing last week that to lose a partisan primary and then be allowed to stay on the ballot as an NPA candidate for the same office would subvert the electoral process.
That would render the primary election “superfluous,” Davis said. “ … He has been eliminated from the race. He cannot (now) recast his candidacy as an NPA.”
Evening Reads
“Donald Trump clinches rebranded NAFTA as Canada joins pact with Mexico” via Jenny Leonard and Josh Wingrove of Bloomberg
“How ‘toxic’ Donald Trump — and Chuck Schumer — factored into Ricardo Rosselló’s endorsement of Nelson” via Marc Caputo of POLITICO Florida
“Former President Barack Obama endorses Andrew Gillum” via Danny McAuliffe of Florida Politics
“Progressive billionaires fall for Gillum” via Maggie Severns and Marc Caputo
“Another poll, another lead for Gillum; PPP pegs him up 4 points over Ron DeSantis” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics
“Pot, meet kettle: CFO candidate Jeremy Ring attacks Jimmy Patronis over his donors” via Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay Times
“Nikki Fried to NRA: ‘I won’t be beholden to you’” via Samantha Gross of the Miami Herald
“Lawsuit could complicate GOP replacement in SD 14 race” via Florida Politics
“How Parkland shooting changed Florida politics” via Alex Daugherty of the Miami Herald
“Poll shows voters favor Amendment 3 casino limits” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
“A third of voters uncertain on Marsy’s Law, according to Chamber poll” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
“A closer look at Florida Constitutional Amendment 10” via Diane Rado of the Florida Phoenix
“‘Humane treatment’ of greyhounds triggers NRA alarm in Florida” via Frank Cerabino of the Palm Beach Post
“Nearly $300 million in BP oil spill restoration funds still pouring into Florida” via Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics
“SunPass Saga may be on verge of getting worse again” via Noah Pransky of 10 News
Quote of the Day
“As Governor, Andrew will expand access to affordable health care, protect Floridians with pre-existing conditions, invest in education, protect the environment and build an economy that works for all.” — Former President Barack Obama, endorsing Andrew Gillum for Florida Governor.
Bill Day’s Latest
Breakthrough Insights
Wake Up Early?
The Florida Supreme Court will hear arguments in three cases, including a dispute about whether Gov. Scott has the authority to appoint a Northeast Florida circuit judge. That’s at 9 a.m., Florida Supreme Court, 500 South Duval St., Tallahassee.
Democrat Nelson and Republican Scott will hold their first debate before the Nov. 6 general election. The taping at 11 a.m., Telemundo 51 studios, 15000 S.W. 27th St., Miramar. Airtime at 7 p.m. on Telemundo stations in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Fort Myers, Tampa and West Palm Beach markets and across the stations’ digital and mobile platforms.
Forward Florida, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum’s political committee, holds a luncheon. That’s at 11:30 a.m., The Residences at Ritz-Carlton, 1111 Ritz-Carlton Drive, Sarasota.
Republican Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis’ campaign will hold a kickoff event for volunteers. That’s at 5:30 p.m., Capt. Anderson’s Restaurant, 5551 North Lagoon Dr., Panama City Beach.
A fundraising reception is slated for Republican Mike Caruso, who is seeking to replace term-limited Rep. Bill Hager, a Delray Beach Republican, in Palm Beach County’s House District 89. Caruso faces Democrat Jim Bonfiglio in the Nov. 6 election. That’s at 5:30 p.m., Office of Peter Feaman, Esq., 3695 Boynton Beach Blvd., Suite 9, Boynton Beach.
Marsy’s Law for Florida, the organization advocating for crime victims’ rights through Amendment 6, will join communities across Central Florida Tuesday night in celebrating National Night Out, which aims to “strengthen relationships between neighborhoods and law enforcement by coming together for a fun-filled night featuring block parties, entertainment, exhibitors, safety demonstrations, food and more.” To see if an event is near you, click here.
