Ryan Nicol
Ocean Ridge Mayor Jim Bonfiglio, the Democratic candidate in House District 89, is up big over his Republican opponent, Mike Caruso. That’s if you believe a new poll commissioned by the Bonfiglio campaign.
The survey from Clearview Research showed Bonfiglio earning 44 percent support to Caruso’s 34 percent. A hefty 22 percent of voters remain undecided.
The poll was conducted among 300 likely voters from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2 and has a margin of error of 5.65 percentage points.
We here at Florida Politics tend to advise against taking campaign polls at face value in isolation, as campaigns have an obvious agenda in releasing them to the public. They’re not always off the mark, but absent other evidence showing similar results, you’d be best to take them with a grain of salt.
In this case, it does seem a bit of a stretch to say Bonfiglio is ahead by double digits.
It’s not that he can’t win in a Republican-leaning district. True, Republican incumbent Bill Hager has held the seat for eight years and ran unopposed in 2016.
However, when Hager faced opposition in 2014 and 2012, he won by about five points each time. That kind of gap can easily be closed in an open race, especially if 2018 turns out to be a wave year for Democrats.
In addition, HD 89 was one of only six districts in the entire state to flip from voting for Mitt Romney in 2012 to supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016, according to an analysis by MCI Maps. Caruso has heavily embraced Donald Trump throughout the primary. That could cause voters to seek out the Democrat come Nov. 6.
But a 10-point win for Bonfiglio?
That’s asking a lot from HD 89 Democrats. Bonfiglio may be up, but supporters shouldn’t get too comfortable unless other, more independent, signs start painting the same picture.
