Staff Reports
New Hispanic polling: Something for everyone
Hispanic voters will play a significant role in determining who will win high-profile statewide races in Florida. They are also crucial in some a few House races.
Most eyes are on the gubernatorial race between Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum and former Republican Rep. Ron DeSantis. Three-term Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is heavily counting on the support of Hispanics and this week both he and his opponent, Gov. Rick Scott, received some encouraging news in that regard.
There is little question that Scott will do better among Hispanics than Republicans running statewide usually do, but earlier in the campaign Scott was doing well enough to make Democrats openly fret about the lack of enthusiasm for Nelson.
A few months ago, a CBS poll showed Nelson leading by one point among Hispanics, while an NBC/Marist survey (taken June 17-June 21) showed Nelson with a 10-point lead (52-42 percent) with the demographic. Two other polls taken in August showed Scott running very close to Nelson with Hispanics.
On Thursday, Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy released a survey that showed among Hispanic voters, Nelson put some distance between himself and Scott. The results gave Nelson a 54-39 percent advantage.
Scott is significantly outperforming President Donald Trump, who lost the Hispanic vote in Florida by 27 points in 2016. Scott supporters will take comfort in the fact that despite that deficiency, Trump still carried the state.
Nelson leads among Puerto Ricans by 28 points, while Scott Cuban-Americans back Scott by 36 points. Those from other Spanish-speaking countries back the incumbent by a 50-point margin.
“The key to this race is, if you look at the internals of our sample, we’ve got Cuban-Americans casting 37 percent of Hispanic votes — and they’re strongly Republican,” pollster Brad Coker said. “So, the farther north that number drifts for Cubans, the better for Republicans. It’s important for Democrats to get the non-Cuban Hispanic vote higher. Otherwise, they have a big problem.”
But in the three competitive House districts in South Florida, Republicans are counting on Cuban-Americans to carry the day.
Rep. Carlos Curbelo is defending his District 26 seat in a majority Hispanic district that is also majority Democrat and gave Hillary Clinton a 16-point majority in 2016. His opponent, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is an impressive candidate and a native of Ecuador.
The Mason-Dixon poll carries good news for District 25 incumbent Republican Mario Diaz-Balart. He is hoping strong GOP support in Southeast Florida, along with a majority-Republican district, is enough to carry him to victory over the strong challenge from Mary Barzee Flores.
Maria Elvira Salazar, a television journalist, hopes her fellow Cuban-Americans can help her win an uphill battle against former University of Miami President and U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala. Retiring Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen won the majority Democrat, majority Hispanic district by 10 points in 2016, despite Trump losing to Clinton by 20 points.
While we will not know the makeup of the electorate until Tuesday night, Hispanics voting early are not turning out in numbers to please either party. As of Thursday, Hispanics, who account for 16.5 percent of the state’s 13 million active registered voters, have so far cast fewer than 12 percent of the ballots.
Trump, Obama to rally in Florida
As the election cycle moves into its final days, Trump came to Estero on Wednesday to stump for Scott, DeSantis and other Republicans. It was a get-out-the-vote message but had all of the trimmings of a typically raucous Trump rally.
Trump praised Scott for his work on behalf of Floridians, especially his recent efforts before and after Hurricane Michael.
“Gov. Scott is doing a truly incredible job,” he said. “He’s a talent.”
Also urging the capacity crowd to vote was Republican Rep. Francis Rooney of Naples, who is also running for re-election.
“We need to help the President by getting your vote out in Southwest Florida,” said Rooney. “We need to run up the score like we did in 2016,” referring to the large majorities the region delivered to Trump on his way to a narrow victory. “We are the reddest of the red.
Also attending was Fort Walton Beach Republican Matt Gaetz, who tweeted a clip of Trump’s introduction of him. Gaetz will have a more prominent role on Saturday when Trump returns to the state for a rally in Pensacola.
While Trump is visiting areas ripe with Republican votes, former President Barack Obama is in Miami, where even larger numbers of Democratic votes are available. Obama is joining with Gillum and Nelson to rally Southeast Florida voters to turn out for the top of the ticket.
Several Democratic candidates for Congress are expected to attend.
Nelson’s Rwanda quip raises eyebrows, again
For the second time in two months, Nelson has made a statement that grabbed the attention of the national media. On Monday he claimed the political environment is so hostile, it can be compared to the atmosphere surrounding the African nation of Rwanda before 800,000 people were slaughtered in the 1990s.
“When a place gets so tribal that the two tribes won’t have anything to do with each other … that jealousy turns into hate,” Nelson said. “And we saw what happened to the Hutus and the Tutsis in Rwanda, it turned into a genocide. A million-people hacked to death within a few months. And we have got to watch what’s happening here.”
The remarks came after a pipe bomber targeted Democrats, liberals and CNN and the murder of 11 Jewish worshippers in Pittsburgh. Nelson’s spokesman, Dan McLaughlin, said Nelson was merely pointing toward a worst-case scenario.
“Sen. Nelson and his wife, Grace, have spoken about events in Rwanda for years, because of his wife’s personal relationships there and his own trip to the country,” McLaughlin said. “He uses Rwanda as an extreme example of what could happen when a nation becomes totally divided. He wasn’t likening the current political climate in America to what was happening right before the Rwandan genocide.”
Scott has not made it a campaign issue, unlike Nelson’s other recent eye-popping claim. In August, the three-term Democrat claimed Russian operatives had already “penetrated” some of Florida’s voting systems.
After Scott and the media demanded proof, Nelson said it was “classified.” The furor eventually died down, and Nelson has not offered any further comment on the matter.
Rubio helping Illinois congressman
While Rubio is not campaigning for Scott in his race against Nelson, he did journey to Illinois on Monday to help Republican Rep. Peter Roskam try and save his House seat. Roskam is facing a tough challenge from Sean Casten, and it is one of the seats Republicans need to win to have any chance at holding on to their majority in the House.
Rubio visited Downers Grove and Oak Brook and hosted a fundraiser for Roskam, adding more to an already expensive race from both sides. Roskam was grateful for the visit.
“People in the 6th District can have strong feelings one way or the other, but what I appreciate about Senator Rubio is he’s an unabashed conservative,” Roskam said with Rubio at his side. “He comes to the public square as a conservative and yet he has also demonstrated a capacity to bring people together.”
Rubio said Roskam has the temperament and experience Congress needs and that the choice between the two candidates is clear.
“It’s not just about keeping the majority in the House; it’s about ensuring that when you have such a clear contrast, such as in a race like this, that people make the right choice in terms of what kind of representation they’re going to have in Congress,” Rubio said.
“It’s important to remember the job of being in Congress, with all of the noise and all of the attention being paid to everything happening, at the end of the day, the job of a member of the House is to take the views, the opinions, the ideas, the thoughts and the concerns of the district, of people, and bring it to Washington, D.C., and find policy solutions,” he added.
Casten responded to the visit but did not mention Rubio by name. Instead, he attacked Roskam for his position opposing additional gun control.
Both the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball handicap the race as “Leans Democratic.”
Soto wants clarity on Pelosi plans
With Democrats inching closer to taking control of the House of Representatives, talk about the status of Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi continues. Republicans are running against a “Speaker Pelosi” on the campaign trail while more than three dozen Democratic candidates have said they want someone else.
Pelosi has tried to soothe those uncomfortable with her re-ascension by saying she would be a “transitional” speaker, apparently meaning she would step down shortly. Democratic Rep. Darren Soto of Orlando is not against the idea, but still has questions.
“I think the bigger question is who would be the successor,” said Soto, who added the caucus should soon come up with a plan.
Soto, who has long endorsed the idea of a transition plan and supports Pelosi, said it would be helpful to know early on who the heir apparent would be.
“I think a lot of that will be determined in the elections,” he said, referring to the caucus elections next month that will determine not only the No. 1 spot in the caucus but a spate of other leadership positions.
Those predicting a Democratic takeover now wonder what happens if the Democratic margin is small, something like 220-215. It might prove difficult for Pelosi to remain if enough stick by their pledge to vote for someone else.
Should Democrats somehow fail to win a majority in the House, the entire leadership team would likely be replaced. Those elections will take place shortly after Election Day.
CD 15 still deadlocked
Four days before Election Day, no one can argue that the race in Congressional District 15 is anything but a tossup. Two new polls say Democrat Kristen Carlson and Republican Ross Spano deadlocked in the contest to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Dennis Ross.
A New York Times poll shows a 43-43 percent tie, while a Bay News 9/Survey USA poll has the race at 45-45. Republicans have a slight advantage among registered voters, but like many other races, young independents could determine the outcome.
“Who are NPAs [no-party-affiliation voters] for the most part?” said retired University of South Florida political science professor Susan MacManus. “They’re younger for the most part and women for the most part.”
Both candidates talk about lower health care costs, while Spano highlights restoring the doctor-patient relationship while Carlson was campaigning for protecting Social Security and Medicare.
“Our strategy all along has been to stick with the issues we started with,” Carlson said. “We stayed on message; we didn’t pivot.”
Brock Mikosky, a Spano spokesman, said the “district will stay red.” In addition to other core issues, he pointed to Spano’s pledge to continue “reducing burdensome regulation on small businesses.”
Barzee Flores on a mission
Barzee Flores did not expect to be running for Congress in 2018. Instead, she expected to be a federal judge after her appointment by Obama.
In the end, she did not receive a vote before the Senate Judiciary Committee after being blocked by Rubio. He stated she gave “conflicting answers” to the Judicial Nominating Commission and those conducting a Judiciary Committee review.
Barzee Flores said the snub heightened her interest in the political process. After EMILY’s List approached her, she decided to run for Congress in the crowded field of Democratic hopefuls trying to succeed Ros-Lehtinen in District 27.
At the last minute, she changed course and decided to challenge Diaz Balart, a close Rubio ally.
“It looked like this guy with his atrocious voting record was going to just sail back into Congress for another term,” she said. I couldn’t bear to see that happen.”
While she has made a name for herself and raised nearly $2 million, nearly as much as Diaz-Balart, defeating him is still a difficult task. In a surprise, she earned the endorsement of the Naples Daily News, saying it is “time for a change.”
Most elections analysts tag the race “Likely Republican,” but others think they see something and predict it could be 2018’s sleeper that is ripe for an upset.
Between now and Tuesday, neither campaign will be getting much sleep.
NRCC goes after South Florida Dems
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is diving into two South Florida races with new ads attacking District 18 candidate Lauren Baer and Mucarsel-Powell in District 26. Baer is challenging Republican Rep. Brian Mast while the first ad seeks to aid Curbelo, the opponent of Mucarsel-Powell.
According to the NRCC spot, Mucarsel-Powell will be bad for the environment if she defeats Curbelo. The ad, called “Threaten,” claims she takes “shady money from a Ukrainian militia leader accused of bribery, embezzlement and murder.”
The reference to the Ukrainian is an encore of earlier accusations about her husband’s dealings with oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky.
To watch the ad, click on the image below:
It goes on to say “her family profits off a company that repeatedly violates environmental laws, and her campaign is flooded with dirty coal money, the very polluters that threaten our way of life in the Keys.” The ad ends with the line “If Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is with them, she can’t be with us.”
The Mucarsel Powell campaign pointed to thousands of dollars in donations going to the Curbelo campaign from “Big Sugar” and oil companies.
In the other ad, the NRCC asks if Baer is a “limousine liberal,” in an attempt to tie her to Pelosi, a wealthy representative from San Francisco. The ad called “Plans” says Baer’s policies will hurt everyday Americans.
“Lauren Baer’s family has millions,” a female narrator says, “so she won’t suffer like us under the destructive policies she shares with Pelosi, because that’s how they roll.”
“Lauren Baer and Nancy Pelosi would move us toward government-run health care, get rid of tax cuts for families, slice the child tax credit in half.”
The Baer campaign responded by saying it is Mast’s policies that are hurting the district.
“Congressman Mast’s allies in Washington can twist the truth as much as they want but the facts are clear: Congressman Mast voted to rip health care away from thousands of his own constituents, voted for a tax plan that puts Medicare and Social Security on the chopping block, and voted for an age tax that raises the cost of health care on our seniors,” said Baer’s campaign manager Rebecca Lipson.
Mast is a slight favorite to hold his seat, but the race between Curbelo and Mucarsel-Powell is rated as a tossup.
Humane Society rates delegation, Congress
Just days before the election the Humane Society Legislative Fund is out with the Humane Scorecard, which grades Congress on animal protection issues. Members were graded for sponsoring or co-sponsoring animal protection bills, domestic violence legislation, and, in the case of the House, how they voted on the 2018 Farm Bill.
Among the delegation, nine members received perfect scores of 100. Those include Republicans Rep. Vern Buchanan of Longboat Key, who is co-chairman of the Animal Protection Caucus, and Gaetz of Fort Walton Beach.
Democrats earning perfect scores were Soto, Rep. Kathy Castor of Tampa, Rep. Charlie Crist of St. Petersburg, Rep. Ted Deutch of Boca Raton, Rep. Lois Frankel of West Palm Beach, Rep. Alcee Hastings of Miramar, and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Weston.
The only veterinarian in the delegation, Republican Rep. Ted Yoho of Gainesville, earned a 50.
In the Senate, Nelson earned a score of 28 and Rubio a 14.
“Stopping animal cruelty and safeguarding threatened wildlife should be a bipartisan issue important to all of us,” said Buchanan.
Dems tout ACA open enrollment; Republicans, not so much
Open enrollment for health plans under the Affordable Care Act opened Thursday to fanfare from local Democrats and silence from Republicans.
The rollout of this year’s enrollment echoes political discourse in this year’s midterm election that pits Obamacare-supporting Democrats against the Republicans who loathe the former president’s signature health care law.
“Don’t fall for tricks by Trump and Republicans in Congress,” Castor wrote on Facebook on Halloween. “They want to scare you away from affordable health insurance!”
Castor pointed constituents shopping for health plans to Healthcare.gov where they can browse different plans available and explore federal subsidy options to help pay for the plans.
Crist announced enrollment on his Facebook page Thursday as it began reminding people enrollment ends December 15.
But Tampa Bay area conservative federal lawmakers were mum. Representatives Buchanan, Gus Bilirakis and Dennis Ross made no mention of the health care enrollment on social media or on their government websites.
With the midterm election less than a week away, last-minute campaigning is in full swing for Democrats hoping to regain state and federal elected majorities and Republicans fighting to keep them. One of the top points of contention remains access to health care.
Democrats have derided attempts by Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives to repeal the Affordable Care Act and votes stripping protections for people with pre-existing health conditions. Republicans say they want consumers to have access to the quality health care of their choosing and argue Democrats want to strip that by implementing lower quality, government-run programs.
On this day in the headlines
November 2, 1998 — House Democrats are drafting a proposal for a brief impeachment inquiry restricted to President Bill Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewinsky, officials said Thursday, effectively dropping an attempt to head off a formal investigation with a swift censure. These officials declined to say how long of an investigation Democrats might propose.
“This cannot be a never-ending fishing expedition,” said Michigan Democratic Rep. John Conyers. Republican Rep. Charles Canady of Lakeland was one of many Republicans responding by saying, “I have a growing suspicion that no matter what we do … they will criticize it.”
November 2, 2014 — With TV ad spending exceeding $100 million in Florida’s record-shattering race for Governor, the candidates spread out across the state to line up the votes they hope will put them over the top. Gov. Scott, who pumped in additional $13 million of his own money recently, headed to Naples with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, while former Gov. Charlie Crist was in Tallahassee mingling with students.
Crist and his campaign team quietly fretted about the impact of an onslaught of Scott television ads, dwarfing ads for Crist and Democrats by a two-to-one margin. “Just turn on the TV and watch,” said Scott’s campaign manager Melissa Sellers.
‘Suspicious package’ fits on a bumper sticker
After the scare from the would-be pipe bomber recently, Miami had to deal with another potentially-lethal discovery. A “suspicious package” was discovered at the Miami-Dade Democratic Party on Wednesday, leading to a lockdown of the area.
Miami police were contacted Wednesday afternoon to check out the package found in the CIC Miami building at 1951 NW Seventh Ave. It was discovered on an empty floor of the party office.
Erring on the side of caution, investigators X-rayed the package, which was not expected by the party. The contents shocked all concerned.
It was a package of Nelson For Senate bumper stickers in a brown box.
