Here’s a poll that shows Ron DeSantis leading race for Florida governor
A popular guy: Ron DeSantis’ already rosy approval numbers look even rosier in a new poll from the Florida Chamber.

Ron DeSantis 10.8.18 (Large)

A new poll from Alabama-based research firm Cygnal isn’t much of a surprise: Florida’s races for Governor and U.S. Senate are in a statistical dead heat.

But the survey is one of few to suggest Republican gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis has the edge in his race against Democrat Andrew Gillum.

The poll put DeSantis ahead of Gillum 47-46, a lead within the poll’s 4 point margin of error.

Democratic U.S Sen. Bill Nelson, meanwhile, leads his Republican opponent, Gov. Rick Scott, 50-48.

“DeSantis and Nelson are both over-performing the generic ballot,” said Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s president and founder.

Despite the apparent discrepancy, “Republicans should feel encouraged about where these two key races are headed,” he added.

Two other Republican statewide candidates — Attorney General hopeful Ashley Moody and incumbent appointed Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis — lead their Democratic opponents by nine and 11 points, respectively.

The poll did not survey the Florida race for Agriculture Commissioner, in which Republican Matt Caldwell is facing off against Democrat Nikki Fried.

The live telephone survey, conducted Oct. 27-29, sampled 495 likely Florida voters. Notably, 4 percent of the sample picked a third-party candidate and less than 2 percent remained undecided.

Many polls, including one released Wednesday morning, have suggested DeSantis and Gillum are gearing up for a photo finish. Those, however, typically give an inside-the-margin-of-error lead to Gillum. Others have afforded the Tallahassee Mayor as much as a 12-point lead.

The Cygnal survey, conducted through live landline and cell phone interviews, sampled 209 Republicans, 190 Democrats and 99 non-party affiliates.

Cyngnal asked those sampled if they would vote for Democrats, Republicans or a third-party candidate. Just more than 50 percent of the sample indicated they would vote for Democrats, while 46 percent indicated they would back Republicans on Election Day.

Pollsters in the state have emphasized the need to sample the correct amount of non-party affiliated voters.

Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the University of North Florida’s polling branch, said on Tuesday that he expects 19 percent of all ballots to come from non-party affiliates. In the Cygnal survey, 20 percent of the sample is composed of NPAs.

Gillum led by 14 points among the NPAs sampled.

The firm touts that it “nailed both the 2014 and 2016 election cycles, correctly predicting (Donald) Trump‘s margin in Florida and his win in Wisconsin.”

“President Trump’s image is weighing heavily on Florida voters as they pick their next Governor and U.S. Senator,” said Josh Pendergrass, Cygnal’s director of client strategy.

“The key is going to be who shows up to vote and the final partisan composition. If supporters of the president turn out, Republicans will probably win, if not, Democrats have a shot at both the Governor’s mansion and maintaining their U.S. Senate seat.”

Danny McAuliffe

Danny McAuliffe is a Tallahassee correspondent for Florida Politics. He is a graduate of Florida State University, where he served as the editor of the FSView & Florida Flambeau. He is a lifelong Floridian and indulges in swimming, hiking, running and memes when the news cycle permits. Reach him at [email protected]


50 comments

  • Lindie Sue

    October 31, 2018 at 11:24 pm

    Explosive new footage released Wednesday shines a blaring spotlight on Florida gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum; showing the stunning depths the Democratic hopeful is willing to go to deceive voters throughout the state.

    The video shows Gillum’s staffers and aides openly discussing his willingness to shift positions and outright lie in order to get elected; going so far as to say “Fairy tales in the modern day begin with ‘once I am elected.’”

    “None of the programs that people are hoping for would happen” but “That’s not for [voters] to know,” said one insider.
    “You whip ’em up. The poor, the middle income. You have to whip them up into a frenzy in order for them to vote,” they added.

    “You have extreme rightwingers, those are the crazy, crazy, crazy Republicans. The Progressives are the crazy, crazy, crazy Democrats, your hippies.”

    “The rules here in Florida are f***** up all right. This is a f***** up state. It’s a cracker state, okay. Ask anybody outside of here you go to Port St. Lucie, Orlando…man them crackers ain’t gonna let us do that shit dawg.”

    • Rafael Gandara-carrillo

      November 1, 2018 at 12:33 am

      Wtf

      • morris

        November 1, 2018 at 10:01 am

        check out project veritas, gillum staff is busted lying and using racist language. signed proud black conservative

        • Lisa Blu

          November 3, 2018 at 11:50 am

          Thank you for your fair comment. It is a true story, even though I check back and forth with all networks. Has anyone aired it, other than Fox? I use to support the Democrat Party during Clinton years and only one term Obama. I have always been fiscally conservative and supported our American Values. I will not be duped by smooth talking Democrat Politicians like President Obama and this character Andrew Gillum running for Governor in my state of Fl. They never talk about the conservative black republicans running for office. But it is all about using racism to reach gullible, simple minded individuals that accept being victims.

    • Chuck

      November 1, 2018 at 5:16 am

      That’s OK the right has done this mid election on pre exisitng conditions. This while they sue to stop it.

      • Nordonia Nate

        November 1, 2018 at 8:43 am

        Really? In Florida, Gillum can’t help but play the race card every chance he gets…

        Oh.. WAIT!! WHY stop with just Gillum and only Florida?

      • Lisa Blu

        November 3, 2018 at 12:00 pm

        Chuck, First of all, we need to be blessed for our voices to be heard and not shut down. So, I can most certainly always appreciate an opposing view. My take on pre-existing conditions? Is it correct that over 800,000 people are currently waiting for an extended Medicaid? Well, I can tell you this. I did not tax the system. Back in 1987, when I was well aware that my fiancé was a diabetic since he was twelve, as well as a cardiac patient, I made sure to keep Corporate positions that had medical benefits, which always covered pre-existing. And flash forward to 1996, I made sure I continued with Corporate benefits with each job. When one needs benefits for their family, work for Starbucks for a minimum of 25 hours a week to receive full-benefits. Medical, dental, vision, Life Insurance, 401K, free 4 yr college degree. Oh, and pre-existing conditions are included. Not one Democrat Politician can answer the logical question? Where will you get well over 30 trillion to pay for it?

    • Andrew Kern

      November 1, 2018 at 6:28 pm

      Liar!

      • Lisa

        November 3, 2018 at 12:13 pm

        Who you calling a liar? Google it. It already went viral.

    • Michael G

      November 2, 2018 at 11:13 am

      Gillum is still going to win.

      • Lisa Blu

        November 3, 2018 at 6:42 pm

        So, you say..Gillum is still going to win? It is like you are saying the B team is going to win and get that trophy, even though you know damn well one should always win on merits. Do you own a home? Do you wonder why all these Liberal Jews decided to leave NY and come to Florida? Get back to me once you compare how Gillum wants to raise Florida taxes by a billion dollars. That is a fact!! And the ones that will love that, are the very ones he kisses as to: the oppressed that depend on government services. Look at California. Do you want your state to turn into a cess pool like many cities in California? Oh, he supports sanctuary cities as well. Truth. You are either ignorant or need my tax hike to support you. Not. Vote Red

      • Kyle

        November 3, 2018 at 8:25 pm

        I pray to God Gilliam to be defeated!

    • Celena Wright

      November 2, 2018 at 12:48 pm

      You are such a liar. You are ridiculous

    • Chris Summerlin

      November 2, 2018 at 11:01 pm

      Gonna have to get me a tshirt that says “Just call me Saltine!”

      • Lisa Blu

        November 3, 2018 at 12:09 pm

        Chris, You are funny. Saltine. What hypocrisy. Even though Desantis will win, what is most troubling are the amount of ignorance that voted for Gillum if it is a close race. I can’t tell you the multiple conversations I have with my dear friends and strangers that support Gillum. They are mostly liberal Jews or liberal blacks who just can tell me they do not like Trump and how racist the right is. They have nothing constructive to say to solve issues, All they have is the “don’t monkey it up” comment that we all know was ‘off the cuff’. Kind of like what our elders use to always say, “don’t monkey around.” I am convinced it will be a close race. I voted all Red this time, thanks to the behavior of Hollywood and the media, as well as clowns such as Booker, Pelosi, Schumer, Waters, and the list can continue.

  • Fulfillment

    November 1, 2018 at 12:08 pm

    • Cyn

      November 3, 2018 at 8:23 am

      What is this garbage?!?! So the other opponent ,DeSantis, is better?!?! Why don’t you run then, talking all that shit!!!

      • Lisa Blu

        November 3, 2018 at 12:26 pm

        Garbage? Really? It does not fit your argument, huh? It is a racist comment against the white race. Period. This garbage is on video. It went viral. Your Gillum may dupe you, but not I. I already got duped by Obama his first term. Never again.

  • Michael

    November 1, 2018 at 3:15 pm

    Florida better wake up. VOTE REPUBLICAN. VOTE FOR DESANTIS. Florida is one of the most thriving economies in the country and voting in socialist Gillum would tear Florida apart. I will never understand it. Liberals leave liberal states of high taxes, move to conservative states of low taxes, and vote for liberals anyway?! They are bringing their problems with them when they vote Democrat. According to Gillum’s staffer, Florida is a “cracker state?” Is this seriously what Florida wants??!! WAKE UP FLORIDA. VOTE FOR DESANTIS

  • Marcey

    November 1, 2018 at 3:52 pm

    The Florida Governor race has virtually already been decided. Mayor Andrew Gillum will be the next governor of Florida and deservedly so. None of the Hamilton or FBI investigation misinformation stuck, he was simply the better politician. He has a vision, he’ll struggle with the Republican legislators to get much of that vision accomplished, but I do feel good about the balance. It’s never a good thing when one party controls the legislative and the executive branches. As far as Ron DeSantis, he was simply the wrong candidate for this particular general election. The Republicans had a real chance to virtually guaranteed a win with a mainstream candidate like Adam Putnam and instead chose an empty suit, Trump sycophant with zero personality, racist tendencies and no clear vision for Florida; and the results are now what they are, he’s been losing in every polls since the primaries, even with Mayor Gillum’s underperformance in the polls. Ron is a base candidate, not a statewide competitor, his appeal is limited and he might be the most unlikeable Republican gubernatorial candidate of my lifetime, even more so than Rick Scott. The racist dog whistles and the nonstop finger pointing were a really stupid move, so much so that Ron might have a slight lead right now had he not made people feel so uncomfortable and icky about voting for him. Mayor Andrew Gillum will be a fine governor, he won’t be able to fully implement his agenda, which is probably a good thing, but he’ll definitely provide the balance the State of Florida desperately needs.

    • Elf

      November 2, 2018 at 12:10 am

      GUILLIM is a racist communist thief and liar.

    • kcm

      November 2, 2018 at 2:08 am

      If Gillum wins, he’ll be in Iowa for the next two years.

      And we get stuck with his bozo running mate, when ge resigns in 2020 to run for President.

      The FBI turns out to not have been misinformation. The FBI’s documents released last week pretty settled the matter.

      You are right about Putnam, however, had the Dems run with Levine or Graham against DeSantis, it likely wouldn’t be close at all. They don’t trigger Trump voters.

      Gillum is a strait up 3rd way/PFAW/Clintonite Democrat. I don’t get where all of the “vision” and “progressive” comes from. Google him from before he announced. He was short listed to be Clinton’s VEEP and was on her counter-Sanders task force to woo millenials from Sanders to Clinton.

      • Celena Wright

        November 2, 2018 at 12:50 pm

        Why do Trump voter have to get “triggered” ? Are they not adult enough to control their emotions????

        • Lisa Blu

          November 4, 2018 at 7:41 am

          Oh, Celena, stop. Are you that naive? Emotional Intelligence, Celena. GOOGLE TERM. You will thank me. The role of any politician; red or blue. Gillum’s smooth, snake-like swagger does not dupe me. Obama got me his first term, but I did not vote for him again in 2012, because of so many reasons that a logical, old school Democrat may appreciate. Other than “He will be good”, is not convincing. Can anyone here be sure he will not push Florida as a sanctuary city and also hike up taxes to help pay for his dependent base. He viral video kills all new lefty or clueless liberals, in general to really think if they want to share a state where you can kiss your once expected retirement goodbye, because you will have less in your pocket. Ask a middle-class, tax payer in California how they feel. I’m Call, you stay if you have the money to separate yourself with a wall and security aroind tour house. And you stay if you have no savings and total dependence on government services. The rest moves to a state like Fl. Did that scenario even occur to the Gillum, middle class voters?? Watch the viral video. He duped you.

    • David Vick

      November 3, 2018 at 9:25 am

      Marcey, well said!

  • Brandon Teo

    November 1, 2018 at 7:25 pm

    DeSantis over Gillum? For real?? Have you followed up on their debates, positions on issues, etc?

    Those who still support DeSantis despite all the facts and information easily available, probably need to get out under the Flordian sun … and oh ya, remove your orange wig – which is preventing the sun from waking up your brains.

    • Toni Adams

      November 1, 2018 at 11:57 pm

      Hillary was going to win and the stock market was going to crash. You can always dream.

    • Sunny

      November 2, 2018 at 12:12 am

      With the taxes GUILLIM plans to impose no one will have time to get out in the sun they will be working extra jobs.

    • Anonymous

      November 2, 2018 at 4:28 am

      You need To wise Gillium is as corrupt as they come and is a racist pos. You just want to turn the rest of Florida into a garbage pit like Tallahassee where gillium is already mayor

    • Ed

      November 2, 2018 at 10:14 am

      You clearly have your blinders on. Because if your actually looking at facts you would never vote for Gillum unless you want higher taxes and crime in the state of Florida.

    • Liz Cummings

      November 3, 2018 at 8:16 pm

      You dems just want everything for free!! You want the government to control your life and own it! That’s what the dems want for you! The lefties are the party that promote violence! WAKE UP!! Don’t believe there lies! Dems want open borders to let anyone into our country. Why can’t they do it legally to become a legal US citizen, I’ll tell you why because they have something to hide!!!

  • Livingston Thomas Jr.

    November 1, 2018 at 9:06 pm

    What do DeSantis believe in when all of his speeches and public interviews been structured on supercilious comments. If that’s all it take to get elected governor, I really feel sorry for Floridians. I just have trouble internalizing how can anyone expect to maintain a health and not to mention attract more industries that’ll continue to advance Florida’s economy with a leader extremely contemptuous. DeSantis role model is Donald Trump and if you ever want to see what a failed economy look like, just take a look at America and that should tell you what kind of economy you can expect have in Florida.

  • Livingston Thomas Jr.

    November 1, 2018 at 9:30 pm

    What do DeSantis believe in when all of his speeches and public interviews been structured on supercilious comments. If all it take to get elected governor in Florida is just bash your opponent, then I feel sorry for Floridians. I never heard DeSantis once mention what he will do to advance the needs of citizens in Florida. I just have trouble internalizing how can anyone under good conscious expect to maintain a healthy economy and not mention a plan of action they will undertake to attract more industries to Florida’s economy under leadership tainted by contemptuous acts. Oh I forgot, DeSantis role model is Donald Trump and if you ever want to see what a failed economy look like, take a good look at America and that should tell you what kind of government you can expect to lead Florida.

    • Tony

      November 2, 2018 at 8:02 am

      ??? Failed ecomony? Seriously?

      Oh, and your keyboard is broken, the “s” doesn’t work properly.

    • Lisa Blu

      November 3, 2018 at 2:23 pm

      Ok, Livingston. You clearly are clueless about our Economy. Have you checked the front page of the New York Times today? Can you imagine the editor’s head spinning trying to come up with the economy is booming with the latest numbers without giving Trump credit. What sore losers they are. I need to sit you on the sidelines, Livingston. You have no common sense with the current economic climate. You are stuck on a talking point that is so 2016. President Trump and the Red Wave wins the Economy and Jobs issue. Next.

      • Liz Cummings

        November 3, 2018 at 8:20 pm

        Way to go Lisa tell them the FACTS!!

  • Michael G.

    November 2, 2018 at 11:09 am

    I voted Gillum and I think he will win. I have been an independent voter and this year It was an easy choice.
    The country is headed in a bad direction. I feel that change is needed and DeSantis seems like he’s a nice guy who takes orders from the president and won’t actually stand up for Florida like the governor should.

    • Liz Cummings

      November 3, 2018 at 8:25 pm

      Your a fool! That’s why the economy is the best it’s been in years! That’s why your check is bigger! That’s why unemployment is the lowest it’s been in years! That’s why the stock market is booming! Look at the facts!!

  • Wayne

    November 2, 2018 at 11:42 am

    Imagine if a white candidate called Detroit a N***** city, oh the media would be all over this like no other. So, why, when a black man is racist everyone acts like it is no big deal? I am against white supremacists, but I am also against racism aimed at anyone. I guess we can call Gillum and his ilk Black supremacists!

  • Kevin AF

    November 2, 2018 at 11:55 am

    If Gillum wins kiss Local Florida business goodbye, kill employee wage hikes goodbye, and watch tax payer money disappear into empty promise land.

  • David

    November 2, 2018 at 11:57 am

    If you want a 40 percent tax hike and have businesses large and small leave Florida taking with them thousands of high paying jobs, eliminate ICE and have more crime vote for Gillum, If you want Florida to prosper and keep Floridians safe, vote for DeSantis, clear choice.

  • Robert Pinardi

    November 2, 2018 at 12:23 pm

    60000 more Republicans have voted in early voting than Democrats.. Being that there are more Democrat in the state than Republicans.. I would say he could win this.. It will come down to the independent voters.

  • Gillum is a Communist

    November 2, 2018 at 4:26 pm

    Facts are Gillum is as corrupt as they come. It’s on tape with project Veritas along with all the other piece of shit dirty corrupt democrats. Useful idiots and sheep vote for democrats. Gillum will raise taxes, he hates police, he’s a radical racist and corrupt to his core. Those are facts. He will take your money you work for and distribute it out to shitbags for votes. Companies and jobs will flee Florida to states with lower taxes. 15$ an hour minimum wage will cause layoffs and the prices of goods and services to go up. Democrats are dumb asses. Vote Desantis. Look at Pelosi, Schumer, Booker and all the rest of the communists. Polls are wrong Libs. Keep watching your fake corrupt news. Educate yourselves.

  • Gillum is a Racist

    November 2, 2018 at 6:17 pm

    Gillum hates White People. Watch Project Veritas video. Says Florida is a Cracker state. Gillum supports sanctuary cities which will allow Illegal Aliens to swarm our cities and we the tax payers will have to pay for them. Their education and medical bills etc. Gillum will raise taxes to steal our hard earned money. Gillum hates police officers and Law Enforcement. Gillum can’t even run Tallahassee. It is corrupt with high crime rates. This guy is the worst thing for Florida. He is all talk and a used car salesman. Save Florida and vote Desantis. Gillum is under investigation from FBI for corruption. All he does is play the race card. Gillum is a socialist and a communist. Progressive means communist. Do your research. Google is all bias on searches. Fake News is Google too and they are communists. Vote Desantis!!! Red Wave!!!

  • Lisa Blu

    November 3, 2018 at 2:27 pm

    Can we agree? The majority here says Gillum is no good. Period. And for so many reasons.

  • Clark Drew

    November 3, 2018 at 3:18 pm

    DESANTIS WINS THE ELECTION…
    CASE CLOSED !!!

  • Clark Drew

    November 3, 2018 at 3:19 pm

    DESANTIS WINS!!!

  • LisaBlu

    November 3, 2018 at 5:10 pm

    Chuck I appreciate your dry, sarcastic humor. I chuckled and smiled.

  • Lisa Blu

    November 4, 2018 at 7:52 am

    Everyone, Red and Blue. Good morning and God bless us all. I don’t do this that often anymore. I lost 15 lbs and I want a glazed bacon topping on a glazed donut with caramel custard on the inside. Oh my, Jupiter Donuts is open!! If you are in East Boca, come join me. Well, we can get the donut and sit on my porch with my coffee pot making fresh Starbucks Italian Roast. Peace Everyone. So nice we can share opposing views and still be sort of civil. Excuse my rudeness if I used the word ignorant. That was not nice. Feel free to Instant message me about politics anytime. We can do this without getting mean-spirited.

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Comments are closed.


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