A.G. Gancarski
Has momentum in the top-of-the-ticket races shifted toward Republicans? Or did CNN simply change the way it polls?
That’s the question to consider.
New polling from CNN Thursday shows that Florida’s races for Governor and Senate are effectively dead heats among likely voters.
But Republicans, per the survey, are closing strong.
Sen. Bill Nelson clings to a two-point lead (49-47) in his re-election bid over Gov. Rick Scott. And Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum has a one-point lead (49-48) over Republican Ron DeSantis.
The Democrats still lead. But compared to the previous CNN poll, Nelson and Gillum have lost ground.
Gillum led 54-42 in a poll taken earlier this month, a survey that left the DeSantis camp incredulous over the polling methodology. And Nelson was up 50-45.
Independents, per the latest CNN poll, aren’t breaking as Democratic as other polls have shown. Scott and Nelson are tied at 46 each with voters outside the two-party system. And DeSantis leads Gillum with independents, 47-46.
What this suggests: the repeated attacks on Gillum’s probity and integrity may be eroding soft support among independents, a cohort buoyed by a tsunami of favorable media coverage that since has crashed into the rocks of political scandal.
Though Gillum can point to robust crowds wherever he goes throughout the state, including GOP rural areas, the survey suggests that less vocal voters may be silently supporting DeSantis.
The study was conducted for CNN via telephone by SSRS, an independent research company, from October 24, 2018, to October 29, 2018. 781 likely voters were surveyed, with a +/-4.3 percent margin of error.
Of the total contacts, 406 were by landline and 604 by cellphone.
Caveats include a potential oversampling of self-identified independents: “Among the entire sample, 28% described themselves as Democrats, 27% described themselves as Republicans, and 45% described themselves as independents or members of another party.”
This voter composition does not look like the Florida electorate, as Steve Schale noted this morning.
Out of 3,724,251 votes cast through Wednesday, Republicans cast 1,555,374, Democrats 1,491.837, and Independents/Third-Party registrants just 677,040.
11 comments
silent
November 1, 2018 at 11:01 pm
MAJORITY
Mr. Richard Cannon
November 1, 2018 at 11:39 pm
As it gets closer to the election the true numbers get closer to reality so the polling people keep some credibility.
kcm
November 2, 2018 at 1:48 am
Regarding “independents,” since we (FL) have a closed primary system, the number of people who think of themselves as “independents” is greater than those of us who are actually registered as NPA (nonpartisans), which required us to give up our right to vote in primaries. The 45% seems right, it is in line with open primary states, and would be both actual NPAs and closet NPAs. We NPAs are diverse, but united in our disdain of partisanship and disgust with political corruption. Gillum is running a hyper-partisan campaign by touring the state with Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Barrack Obama, and Bernie Sanders, and the documents relating to the FBI investigation released last week support the perception he is corrupt and dishonest. This is why he lost NPA support. He is doing it to himself. We NPAs will likely decide this election.
Liz Schultz
November 2, 2018 at 9:13 pm
I totally agree with you.
Founders1791
November 2, 2018 at 11:59 am
Poll is worthless drivel with absurd sampling of Party ID
……………………2014-FL…..2016-FL…..2018-FL Early Vote….CNN
Republicans…48.1%……..49.0%…….1,151,593 (42.5%)……27%
Democrats……47.0%……..47.8%……1,092,547 (40.3%)……28%
Other……………….4.7%………..3.1%………..465,216 (17.1%)……45%
Dwayne Gordon
November 4, 2018 at 12:16 pm
Poll is right on gillium is down 9 points with blacks,hispanics and down 7 points with College and no College educated and sown 6 points with women florida doesnt want hia corrupt race card playing POS and people are wising up and know his tax increase and medicaide for all and repealing the stand Your ground law because he says its a racist law playing the race card again mabey its because black commit more violent crimes compared to whites i mean come on look at prisons 80% blacks thats not a coencidident
Long Live Red Florida we dont want no demacraps running our state witch has grown and prospered under republican controll and thats how we want it
Gillum is a Corrupt Racist
November 3, 2018 at 6:18 pm
Gillum is corrupt, hates white people, hates cops and is a communist socialist shitbag. He got caught on project veritas which exposed his corruption and racism. Google Gillum project Veritas. All the Democrat shitbags got caught lying by project Veritas. Vote Scott/ Desantis!!!
Dwayne Gordon
November 4, 2018 at 12:17 pm
Damn Straight
Gillum Hates White People
November 3, 2018 at 6:22 pm
Gillum is a criminal under FBI Investigation. He is being funded by billionaire George Soros who is also funding the caravan. Soros is enemy to USA and hates our country. Educate yourselves!!! Vote Desantis/ Scott
Dwayne Gordon
November 4, 2018 at 12:34 pm
You got that right
Gillum will Destroy Florida
November 3, 2018 at 6:29 pm
Gillum wants to raise taxes, take your guns, supports illegal aliens, wants Florida to be a Sanctuary state and hates cops. He can’t even run his own city as it is crime ridden. Gillum will cause Floridians to lose jobs and companies will flee state for cheaper taxes. Gillum will destroy Florida and tax you to death. Vote Desantis/ Scott!!
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