Most polls have shown Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum leading the race for Governor and incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson tied with Gov. Rick Scott, but a new poll from Nashville-based Targoz Market Research says that could shift come Election Day.
The poll asked an online panel of respondents who voted in 2012 and 2016 who they were backing in the top-of-ticket races and found former Congressman Ron DeSantis with a 1-point lead in the Guv race and Scott with a 4-point lead over Nelson in the Senate contest.
The caveat? That measure includes “leaners,” or voters who said they were unsure but tossed out a name when pressed for an answer. Without leaners, Scott leads 48-45 percent while Gillum leads DeSantis 47-44 percent.
“As trite as it sounds, the election for both Senate and Governor will hinge on each campaign’s ability to turn out their voters,” the pollster said. “For Democrats, it means turning out 18 to 34-year-old voters who make up 22 percent of registered voters but represent only 15 percent of the likely voters in this poll. Voters age 65-plus make up 29 percent of registered voters and 34 percent of likely voters in our polling.”
Targoz added that the state is on pace to break the Sunshine State’s midterm election turnout record.
“If this turnout mirrors the 2016 election for President, both Scott and DeSantis could win,” the pollster said.
As of Saturday, nearly 4.5 million Floridians had cast their ballots early.
The state Division of Elections tally shows Republicans have cast just over 41 percent of those pre-Election Day votes, while Democrats make up a 40 percent share and third- and no-party candidates account for the remaining 19 percent.
Republicans led by 3 points in pre-Election Day voting four years ago, the most recent midterm election.
RealClearPolitics polling average of the Governor race shows Gillum with a lead of 2.6 percentage points. Nelson leads by 1.4 percentage points in the RCP Senate polling average.
November 4, 2018 at 11:02 am
Lowest hispanic and black unemployment rate EVER — thank you, Republicans!!!
Please in Florida, calling everyone, especially cubanos, venezolanos,
puertorriqueños —- VOTE DESANTIS AND SCOTT!!!! Especially if you love Jesus
and you know socialism leads to death. Por favor NO AL SOCIALISMO
Let us learn from Venezuela. Please.
November 4, 2018 at 12:40 pm
Democracy is not socialism you brainwashed Cuban-American. Gillum is going to win HA!
November 4, 2018 at 11:38 pm
The Red wave is coming! Your democrat socialist ass is drowning
Red Blooded American
November 5, 2018 at 6:46 am
Democracy today is Socialism, do your homework and stop watching CNN
November 5, 2018 at 2:35 pm
If he does, I hope you enjoy lauging at how little money you have in your pocket dipshit.. He’s going to implement a 1 billion dollar tax hike on Floridians.. Moron.. You’d vote for him because he’s black and no other reason.. That makes you a dipshit racist..
November 5, 2018 at 2:40 pm
Dude.. be informed before you speak. Also you just proved most of you left wingers are the racists ones. Sad.
November 5, 2018 at 4:06 pm
You rat thieves will steal my money after gillum takes my firearms himself. Good luck commie scum. MAGA.
More suculent liberal tears and they taste so good. Blame Russia again commie rat, losers.
November 5, 2018 at 7:35 am
November 5, 2018 at 8:07 am
Venezuela and socialism are both now buzzwords it’s the only thing they can say.
November 4, 2018 at 1:02 pm
Yeah , employnent is low. How do you like those $7/hr jobs working for big corps just given billion dollar tax breaks by Repubs. Has it trickled down yet?
November 4, 2018 at 11:32 pm
Are you stupid? The minimum wage isn’t even $7. Did you just say that for dramatic effect? Go get a education you retarded democrat and maybe you will make more money.
November 5, 2018 at 7:39 am
They lie ALL the time. They never tell the truth about anything. Democrats have a mental disorder. Conservatism is the cure. God is good. Trust in him. Vote RED to save America!
November 5, 2018 at 8:05 am
The federal minimum wage is 7.25
November 5, 2018 at 4:09 pm
Thats not how it works moron. “Trickle down” was a liberal lie meant to disparage sound economics.
Fyi, if you are working minimum wage, you are a loser with a low iq and no president or govt can help you with any policy. That is reality. Nevertheless, the obamacare employer mandate killed full time employment.
Educate yourself or dont vote you uninformed rat.
November 5, 2018 at 7:58 pm
Minimum wage is $8.25… There isnt 1 $7 job in Florida.
November 4, 2018 at 2:47 pm
No if you love Jesus you will vote for the candidates that will help the most people keep polluters from destroying our beautiful state!
November 4, 2018 at 3:11 pm
This is sorcery at it’s best! I love Jesus and He loves me. Guess what, he frowns on all liars and all manner of pride! That includes crooked Republicans who used two issues to claim righteous. Righteousness is what God loves not hatred, sneering, partisan, name calling and blaming, inciting fear and violence. I am ashamed of some of the Christians in this nation.
November 4, 2018 at 9:41 pm
AMEN‼️ Just exactly what are they thinking 🤔 🙄
November 5, 2018 at 7:35 am
God himself placed the borders, It is written in the bible that we are to follow the laws of the land. This is righteousness. We are to take care of our own and if you don’t you are worse than an infidel. We have poor here that need jobs to make it. We have veterans living in the woods. We have American children that are very poor who live in the rural areas where the factories have all closed. We have many AMericans who struggle to pay their bills and find the money to live . We must take care of our own poor who have had their jobs leave. Trump has brought back industries , steel, clean coal.
I remember a town in PA where everyone was on welfare and the whole main street was closed. NO money, the last factory closed. I talked to the locals how bad it was. They wanted to work. They were sitting on the steps of a small church. There were many many small towns we saw in the same shape. It was eye opening. No jobs- no money. The houses were old in awful shape, the streets with big potholes. This is America. But Trump has worked for the forgotten men and women and children of America. I voted Republican for my fellow Americans.
November 4, 2018 at 11:34 pm
Did you get dropped on your head
November 4, 2018 at 4:35 pm
Look Floridians if you vote for Gilliam he will destroy Florida with his progressive agenda. He will impose a state tax and we will all be done. Don’t be stupid, get your facts vote Republican. Gilliam is a crook. We need good leadership.
November 4, 2018 at 5:13 pm
No really you all need to pay attention
Gillum is raising min wage to 15.00 per hr. If you like to continue not being able to make ends meet and not feed yr family oh well. If you love hatred and divide vote Republican. Let’s VOTE FOR RIGHT CANDIDATES GILLUM KING AND NELSON. LETS GET IT DEMOCRATS. GO VOTE. I YRUST THESE MEN 100%.
November 4, 2018 at 11:24 pm
15.00 /hr Sounds awesome doesn’t it.. Other states have tried this and it failed.. Do your homework, if you’re counting on this think again. At best you’ll be working part time. Small business can not sustain this its common sense. If you think you have it bad now a vote for the Gillum is a vote for destruction of FL. Don’t be fooled by these foolhardy promises and tactics.. FL doesn’t need socialism, higher taxes and failed policies. DeSANTIS!!
November 5, 2018 at 4:58 pm
Gillum will kill our housing industry. He will try and come after our guns and make Floridians pay for health care for thousands more. Will make our State a Sanctuary State and we will have the scum of the earth here. Killing and raping our children. VOTE REPUBLICAN
November 4, 2018 at 11:36 pm
Increasing minimum wage to $15/hr isn’t going to do anything but increase unemployment. You really think fast food workers are worth that kind of money? Why don’t you get off your democrat socialist ass and earn a living?
November 5, 2018 at 9:31 am
That’s the point. We live in an economy were people aren’t worth $15 an hour. This needs to be fixed. One way to do that is to raise the min wage. McDonald’s workers get replaced by machines….. but thats a GOOD thing. The unemployed will have to get retrained for a job worthy of $15 an hour. The net is an improved workforce with less reliance on social safety nets.
November 5, 2018 at 8:02 pm
You do realize that all $15 min wage will do is raise cost of living and give those in Florida already making $15+ an hour a downgrade in lifestyle right? There is nothing good about raising a MINIMUM wage. Minimum wage is not a career wage & if you are relying on minimum wage you need to ask for more because my 17 year old son makes better than minimum wage.
November 4, 2018 at 6:15 pm
anyone who thinks that raising our minimum wage to 15 dollars an hour is the answer is blinded …. the only thing that will lead to is jobs being eliminated .. there is no way small businesses can survive this … there will be a lot of layoffs … a burger flipper should not make 15 dollars an hour .. this is “democratic” socialism at its finest and we need to stop it !!
November 4, 2018 at 8:56 pm
We need to go out and vote for DeSantis for Governor and Rick Scott for the Senate. If Gilliam gets in our taxes will go up, we may end up with a State income tax and businesses will be leaving florida. We don’t want Florida to become another California! Vote 4 DeSantis for Governor!
November 4, 2018 at 11:40 pm
15.00 dollar an hr minimum wage is nuts. That will create a serious loss of jobs and businesses closing.
November 5, 2018 at 8:01 am
The minimum wage in Australia is going to increase to 18.93 How the fuck did they manage to achieve that meanwhile us supposedly being the greatest country in the world can even rise it to a two digit number? this is complete bullshit. The people here in the comment sections are complete masochists.
November 5, 2018 at 10:15 am
Why don’t YOU explain HOW Australia does it? YOU got all the answers…
Wondering IF Australian economy comes close to the US economy? Wondering IF Australia has 330 million people? Well, I guess we’ll find the answers to many questions when Kenny explains the minimum wage situation…
Wondering IF Kenny went to same school as Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and ALSO got a degree in economics like she did?
November 5, 2018 at 8:27 am
Australia doesn’t have caravans of people coming in willing to work for $7.00 an hour under the table.
November 5, 2018 at 8:47 pm
$15/hr min wage and increased taxes are economic suicide. Businesses are fleeing California and highly regulated states to settle in Florida because there is more economic freedom. Florida is one of the few states not suffering rising unemployment and government deficits. Let’s keep it that way by keeping Gillum out.
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