A.G. Gancarski
With the first Democratic nominating contests quickly approaching, one oddsmaking site sees a surge for one of the field’s newest candidates.
According to self-described “betting aggregators” USBookies.com, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is in the top five of the field in two important metrics.
Of the candidates in the field, the self-financing Bloomberg has the fifth-best chance to win the Democratic nomination, with eight-to-one odds.
Bettors also believe he has the fifth-best chance to go all the way, giving the Empire State billionaire twelve-to-one odds to win the presidency outright.
“Though he hasn’t yet appeared in a major debate, Bloomberg is right up there with the front-runners out of almost nowhere, moving from eighty-to-one to be POTUS to twelve-to-one in less than a month,” says US-Bookies betting industry analyst Alex Donohue. “Right now, he’s also got the fifth-best odds to win the Democratic nominee.”
Remarkable, given polling showed him recently as the “most disliked candidate” in the Democratic field.
Bloomberg trails what could be argued is the “top tier” of candidates in each metric. Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders are seen as more likely, in that order, to win the party’s nomination.
Biden, a former U.S. Vice President and Senator, has the best odds to be the nominee at 11/4.
Biden, along with U.S. Sens. Warren and Sanders and South Bend Mayor Buttigieg, are seen as better bets to win the presidency outright.
Biden gets eleven-to-two odds there, ahead of Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren in that order.
Bloomberg’s surge in betting markets coincides with ad buys that no other candidate in the field, save fellow billionaire Tom Steyer, can match.
The Associated Press reports “tens of millions of dollars” being spent by the candidate, who, as of now, plans to focus on later states in the process and sidestep the early nominating contests in New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, and Nevada.
Given the unproven strategy of skipping those early states, bettors’ confidence in Bloomberg is stunning.
Steyer, despite having the same ability to spend as much as he wants on ads, thus far has not caught the imagination of bettors.
He is given just a one-hundred-fifty-to-one shot to win the nomination, and two-hundred-to-one odds to become President.
It’s also possible bettors are attuned to the level of self-funding Bloomberg has allowed his past campaigns. He spent more than $260 million across his three campaigns for New York Mayor, including at least $102 million in his final campaign, which equates to $174 for every vote he received at the ballot box.
Some context for those more familiar with Florida elections: Rick Scott spent about $73 million to secure his first term as Governor. Bloomberg has already spent more than that on ads, including $57 million in TV spots, through the first two weeks of presidential run.
Complete odds below:
Odds to Win 2020 Presidential Election:
Joe Biden: 11/2
Peter Buttigieg: 7/1
Bernie Sanders: 9/1
Elizabeth Warren: 10/1
Michael Bloomberg: 12/1
Andrew Yang: 33/1
Amy Klobuchar: 50/1
Tulsi Gabbard: 70/1
Cory Booker: 150/1
Tom Steyer: 200/1
Odds to Win Democratic Nominee:
Joe Biden: 11/4
Peter Buttigieg: 7/2
Elizabeth Warren: 9/2
Bernie Sanders: 11/2
Michael Bloomberg: 8/1
Andrew Yang: 16/1
Amy Klobuchar: 33/1
Tulsi Gabbard: 40/1
Cory Booker: 80/1
Tom Steyer: 150/1
One comment
gary
December 6, 2019 at 2:36 pm
yawn
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