Internal poll shows Judson Sapp leading CD 3 field

Judson Sapp filed an amendment financial disclosure form showing that he did loan money to his campaign.

Four months out from the primary, Clay County Republican Judson Sapp has a poll showing him with an advantage in the crowded field vying to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Ted Yoho.

The poll, conducted by Americana Analytics, shows Sapp is the pick for about 16% of GOP voters in Florida’s 3rd Congressional District, with the next closest option pulling about 4% of the vote.

About a third of those polled knew enough about Sapp to offer an opinion. All viewed him as either “very favorable” (11%) or “somewhat favorable” (20.5%). Just 2% saw the candidate in a negative light.

The poll also asked voters whether they approved of President Donald Trump, finding 90% viewed him as “very favorable” while 9% viewed him as “somewhat favorable.”

The poll has some limitations. Its small sample size of 400 voters sets a margin of error of plus or minus 5%. It also shows more than 70% of voters undecided, leaving plenty of room for another candidate to muscle into the top spot.

The poll lists Ocala Mayor Kent Guinn in the No. 2 spot, followed by Gavin Rollins at 3.5% and Kat Cammack at 2.5%. No other candidate reached 1% support.

Federal qualifying began at noon on Monday. By noon Friday, candidates who haven’t submitted the required petition signatures or a $10,440 ballot fee (for partisan candidates) will unceremoniously disappear from the candidate field.

As of March 31, seven Republicans had enough cash in their campaign accounts to cover the ballot fee.

Depending on how many of the nine candidates make it onto the August 18 ballot, it’s possible the eventual Republican nominee will go to the general with a small plurality of the vote.

Sapp has been actively campaigning for the seat since before Yoho announced he wouldn’t seek a fifth term. He also challenged Yoho in the 2018 Republican primary, earning about a quarter of the vote in a head-to-head race.

His 2020 campaign has pulled in more cash than any other, though much of his $430,000 in receipts came in through candidate loans. Sapp is also near the top in cash on hand, with about $310,000 banked heading into April.

The field wasn’t lackadaisical in the first quarter, however, with five other candidates topping $100,000 raised between Jan. 1 and March 31.

As it stands, North Central Florida physician James St. George holds a cash lead with $400,000 raised in Q1 — including $200,000 in loans — and $326,000 in the bank.

Cammack is in third in both metrics with $207,000 raised through two reports and $166,000 on hand, though her campaign account isn’t buoyed by candidate loans.

Todd Chase follows with $163,000 raised and $137,000 banked, then Rollins with $106,000 raised and $97,000 on hand and Ryan Chamberlin with $101,000 raised and $97,000 on hand.

A large dropoff follows. Despite his No. 2 showing in Sapp’s poll, Guinn was among the least successful fundraisers in Q1, showing just $5,000 in receipts and $4,500 in the bank.