Coronavirus model predicts more deaths, but Florida is still past the peak

The coronavirus peak is still in Florida’s rear view, according to the latest update of one influential outbreak model, but the outbreak could last longer and more people could die.

Over the weekend, The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation‘s model suggested the state passed the peak in new deaths on April 2, when 77 people died, and that the final death toll will be 1,363 after an update Saturday. The group revised that estimate Tuesday, to 1,537 deaths based on the model’s most likely prediction.

And the prediction is just that — what the model sees as the most likely outcome. As many as 2,941 or as few as 964 Floridians could die by the end of the outbreak according to the model’s uncertainty range.

The peak of new deaths in Florida actually occurred on April 6 and April 7, according to data from the Department of Health. On both days, 44 people died. On Monday, the latest day with available data from the department, 29 people died.

Florida also passed the peak need for hospital resources last week, when the model believed the state needed an estimated 1,512 hospital beds. The state has been prepared with 20,184 beds.

New York and California have also passed their peaks in daily deaths, likely 837 and 96 respectively. However, those states only just reached that peak on Thursday. As for total fatalities, the model believes 23,741 New Yorkers will die, as will 1,743 Californians.

Gov. Ron DeSantis took to “Fox and Friends” and held a press conference Tuesday to tout that Florida has flattened the coronavirus curve, rather than becoming a New York or Italy and to decry the “false” models reported in the media.

“You go back a month, month and a half, report after report saying it was just a matter of time that Florida’s hospital system would be completely overwhelmed,” DeSantis said. “Those predictions have been false. Our work is succeeding. We have flattened the curve.”

And Surgeon General Scott Rivkees told reporters the state was “essentially at a plateau” in the curve of daily new cases last week.

The White House has referenced the model, made in association with the University of Washington School of Medicine. After this and other models showed the number of coronavirus cases continuing to rise, President Donald Trump changed his tune on extending the initial advisory for Americans to stay home.

A task force on reopening Florida will meet all week before returning its findings Friday on short term recommendations to reopen the state.