Jacob Ogles
Betting markets for the first time show Joe Biden as the favorite to win Florida and the presidency.
Both US-Bookies.com and Oddschecker now put the smart money on the Democrat— but just barely.
Oddschecker has been tracking markets specifically for where Florida’s 29 electoral votes go. The site now figures Democrats’ odds-implied percentage to win Florida at 50%, compared to Republicans’ 47.6% chance. The parties’ odds were both at 50% on May 27 and Biden hasn’t dropped since, while Donald Trump suffered decline.
What’s especially notable about the market is that it showed Republicans as the heavy favorite until recently. As of March 15, the GOP had a 69.2% chance of taking Florida compared to Democrats’ 38.1% chance.
Granted, Democratic chances improved intensely as soon as Biden moved into frontrunner status. He’s now the presumptive nominee. The site first announced Republicans and Democrats held near equal odds of taking Florida on May 16, when Trump held the slightest statistically observable edge.
Democrat improvements come at a time of tumult across the country, which has seen more gamblers betting on change this fall.
“A lot of the markets are definitely linked. Joe Biden’s odds shortened over the weekend to the point where he was outright favorite to be the next POTUS,” said Pete Watt, Oddschecker spokesman.
Florida, the largest battleground state in every presidential election for the past two decades, does tend to have an impact of odds in other states, Watt said.
As for US-Bookies, that market saw Biden and Trump each with 1/1 odds of winning Florida as of June 2, but have seen Biden’s chances improve to 10/11 odds and Trump slip to 21/10.
“Biden becoming more likely to win the election than Trump is a hugely significant moment in the election as oddsmakers now believe the sitting president will not serve a second term,” says US-Bookies betting industry analyst Alex Donohue. “For the first time since betting markets opened, there is a candidate that is more likely to win the 2020 election than Donald Trump.”
Notably, both sites have also seen Rep. Val Demings, an Orlando Democrat climb to be the second-most likely choice for Biden to tap as a running mate. That could also impact his odds in Florida.
US-Bookies now pegs her with 6.1 odds, compared to 5/1 as of June 1.
Oddschecker now gives Demings a 14.3% chance of getting the call. That’s up from 2% in early May. She’s now in second place in the market, with better standing than Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’ 13.3%.
But both sites still peg California Sen. Kamala Harris as Biden’s most likely choice, with Oddschecker giving her 42.1% chance and US-Bookies giving her 5/4 odds.
