Renzo Downey
On Tuesday, state health officials reported a record 186 deaths among Floridians from COVID-19. That followed a once-record 173 deaths reported Thursday.
The Department of Health has confirmed 130 deaths on average each of the past seven days and at least 6,117 Floridians have died. That accelerating death toll complicated Gov. Ron DeSantis‘ assurances Tuesday that the Sunshine State is on the mend.
“These are tough things to see when you see fatalities come in,” DeSantis told reporters.
In mid-June, when DeSantis began acknowledging the rising number of deaths, he said rising positivity rates were mostly limited to younger demographics. But with confirmed infections growing over the course of June, and fatalities sometimes occurring weeks after diagnoses, Florida is currently seeing the bump in deaths caused by the infection spike.
“I think when you see those reports, those are probably reflective of infections and hospitalizations that have happened in the past,” the Governor said. “So it’s more of a lagging indicator, where as I think the ED (emergency department) visits and some of the hospital visits are more of a leading indicator in terms of where things are trending.”
Over the past seven days, the percent positivity rate has averaged 11.7%, a decline from earlier in the month when more than 15% of people tested returned positive. Florida is one of 17 states where new infections are currently trending down, according to rt.live.
Additionally, emergency department visits for symptoms associated with the disease have also declined over recent weeks, as a share of total visits.
“As you have fewer ED visits and as you have fewer COVID-positive patients in the hospital, we think, and I’m pretty sure with the good work they’re doing, you’ll see mortality decrease as well, and obviously we want to get there.”
According to independent data scientist and MIT graduate Youyang Gu, Florida has an implied infection fatality rate of 0.15%, the lowest of all states with more than 1,000 infections per day. Some, including Gu, have questioned whether Florida is reporting all of its cases, which DeSantis has called a conspiracy theory.
Nationally, the implied IFR is 0.27%. The IFR measures the mortality rate based on all presumed COVID-19 cases rather than by those that have been specifically confirmed, which causes the rate to be much lower. Florida’s confirmed mortality rate is currently 1.4%.
Prior to his Tuesday appearance, DeSantis noted that AdventHealth, who was hosting the COVID-19 roundtable in Orlando, was providing end-of-life visits for family members while most people have been barred from visiting hospitalized and dying family because of the virus’ contagious nature. But the Governor highlighted the hospital system’s approach to give closure to surviving loved ones and encouraged other hospitals to do the same.
“Obviously we’re working hard to protect the long-term care facilities,” he said. “We still have fatalities related to long-term care, and then obviously to have families lose somebody is a big deal, and every one of that matters.”
Long-term care facilities, including nursing homes, have averaged 45 deaths per day among residents and staff over the last seven days. Those facilities, which house some of the state’s most at-risk populations, have seen 2,760 deaths.
Following the first spike in COVID-19 cases, which peaked in early April, both diagnoses and deaths never fully slowed despite the percent positivity rate falling below 3% in the second half of May.
During a separate Tuesday press conference for Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry, his first since President Donald Trump scrapped his city’s portion of the Republican Nation Convention over public health scrutiny, Curry said cases were declining, but left a caveat.
“This plateau could be a long ride.”
