Staff Reports
Looking to November
The primaries are over and the matchups for November are now known. In most cases, the precise margins of victory are not yet known. More on that later.
We know that at least three delegation Republicans will not return and those seeking to replace them survived tough, hard-fought primaries. The voters’ choices in Florida’s 3rd, 15th and 19th Districts are chronicled below, along with an upset in the GOP primary in District 13.
Most of the drama involved Republican races, with Alan Cohn’s victory in the Democratic primary in District 15 serving as an exception. There were 29 primary contests within the state’s 27 districts, but the national media seemed most interested in arch-conservative Laura Loomer’s victory in CD 22, earning the right to face Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel, who easily won renomination.
As expected, Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Giménez won the right to face Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in CD 26, while Maria Elvira Salazar earned a rematch with Democratic Rep. Donna Shalala in CD 27. Political pundits label Mucarsel-Powell’s seat as “Leans” or “Tilts Democratic,” while Shalala’s district is labeled as either “Likely Democratic” or noncompetitive after winning by six points in 2018.
While election night finalized the November ballots, it also may have issued a warning for what may be coming for counting those ballots. Chances of fraud may be low, but knowing who won the presidency or federal, state, and local races could take time to determine.
According to the Florida Division of Elections, 28.1% of Floridians either came to the polls or used a mail-in ballot, the highest primary turnout in 18 years. In the era of COVID-19, the latter is the method of choice for a large majority of voters, leading to delays in establishing final counts in this week’s primaries.
As of the morning of August 20, more than 36 hours after polls closed, only 22 Florida counties had completed their mail-in ballot count, according to the Division of Elections. The largest county to complete their tally was Orange County, which processed 112,819 ballots.
Most of the other 21 were rural counties, which begs the question: what will happen when these totals double, at the very least, in November? Florida voter turnout in presidential elections has not dipped below 70% since 1996.
President Donald Trump expressed strong early opposition to mail-in voting, but later clarified that to mean “universal” mail balloting after figures showed Florida Democrats were building an advantage in an area where Republicans normally thrive. His understandable use of a mail ballot also left him open to derision.
Democrats are jumping on the Postal Service controversy and next week’s hearing with Postmaster General Louis DeJoy will be intense. How all of that plays out in November will make 2020 an election cycle like no other.
Count on it.
Intel report released
This week, the Senate Intelligence Committee released the fifth and final segment of their report looking into Russian interference in the 2016 campaign. Acting Chair Marco Rubio and Ranking Member Mark Warner jointly announced the report’s release, but issued different statements.
Both acknowledged activities by Russian agents, but Rubio got into the subject of an ongoing investigation by the Department of Justice (DOJ).
“We can say, without any hesitation, that the Committee found absolutely no evidence that then-candidate Donald Trump or his campaign colluded with the Russian government to meddle in the 2016 election,” Rubio said.
“What the Committee did find however is very troubling. We found irrefutable evidence of Russian meddling. And we discovered deeply troubling actions taken by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, particularly their acceptance and willingness to rely on the ‘Steele Dossier’ without verifying its methodology or sourcing.”
Warner described “a breathtaking level of contacts between Trump officials and Russian government operatives that is a very real counterintelligence threat to our elections.” He further added his pride “that the committee’s report speaks for itself.”
The keywords of distinction appear to be “no evidence,” “colluded” and “contacts.” Those and other parts of the report led critics to accuse Rubio and Republicans of “misrepresenting” the report’s findings.
“Rubio will do anything for Trump, even mislead the American people with lies and attack the men and women of the FBI who’ve dedicated their lives to protect our national security,” tweeted Miami Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. “If you want to know how low Trump’s cronies will go to protect him, just look at Marco Rubio.”
With Congress’ role in investigating the 2016 Russian meddling efforts now complete, all that remains is the DOJ inquiry led by U.S. Attorney John Durham, who is looking into the FBI and the Justice Department’s role in what Attorney General Bill Barr has described as “spying” on the Trump campaign.
Protecting American investors
The drive to cut back on investment in Chinese companies continued this week after earlier reversals on investing federal pension funds were announced. In a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Jay Clayton, Sen. Rick Scott urged the SEC to immediately implement recommendations designed to protect American investors.
Last month, the president’s Working Group on Financial Markets (PWG) issued a report on dealing with Chinese companies that do not face the same auditing scrutiny as American companies. They issued several recommendations that Scott says “further safeguard American investors from the threat of Communist China.”
“Communist China is flouting U.S. laws, defrauding our citizens and harming American investments,” Scott wrote. “Everything a business does in Communist China is shared directly with a government that is jailing its people for their religious beliefs, refuses to respect basic human rights and is building up their industrial and military strength in an effort to dominate the world.”
Scott wrote to Clayton in January after China enacted new laws that force American companies to turn over even more of their secrets. Three months ago, he was part of a successful effort that reversed course on plans to invest pension funds for federal employees and military members into Chinese companies.
“I thank you and the other members of the PWG for taking this important first step to hold Communist China accountable and protect American investors, and I encourage the SEC to take action to implement these recommendations as soon as possible,” the letter added.
Gaetz picks winners
While not always perfect in his endorsements, Trump has a fairly good track record of getting his preferred candidates. Gov. Ron DeSantis was most grateful for his support in 2018. Among Trump’s biggest backers is Rep. Matt Gaetz, who jumped into the primary endorsing business this cycle and came out with a perfect record.
Before cruising to victory in his primary with 81% of the vote, Gaetz endorsed Scott Franklin in Congressional District 15, Ana Paulina Luna in Congressional District 13, and Loomer in Congressional District 21.
Franklin and Luna were running against candidates backed either by Republican leadership or other delegation Republicans. All were victorious, but Gaetz gave Donald Trump, Jr. significant credit for offering good words during the closing days of Luna’s race.
“GOP Establishment had a rough go of it in my beloved Sunshine State,” Gaetz told Fox News. “The Gaetz-endorsed candidates closed strong.”
Gaetz will face retired U.S. Navy Commander Phil Ehr in November.
Cammack gets CD 3 nod
Going into Tuesday’s primary election, it was certain that the Republican race to succeed outgoing Rep. Ted Yoho was going to be close. In that regard, it did not disappoint as former Yoho staffer Kat Cammack emerged as the GOP nominee despite picking up only 25% of the vote.
While 10 Republicans were on the ballot, Cammack edged out three rivals, some of whom invested heavily in their own campaigns. Judson Sapp, who unsuccessfully primaries Yoho in 2018, finished second with 20%, despite strong fundraising and endorsements from Reps. John Rutherford and Vern Buchanan.
Gavin Rollins and James St. George earned 15 and 14%, respectively.
“I am so honored to have earned the trust and support of the voters,” Cammack said in a statement following her win. “From the bottom of my heart, thank you to our team of supporters and volunteers who gave it all for months to ensure we secured this victory.”
Cammack will face Democrat Adam Christensen in the fall. She is a heavy favorite to keep the seat for Republicans.
Waltz’s gagged opponent
Few are expecting drama in the Congressional District 6 race in November as Republican Rep. Michael Waltz of St. Augustine seeks a second term. In a close Democratic primary Tuesday, DeLand Attorney Clint Curtis defeated college professor Richard Thripp or Orange City by less than 2,000 votes.
Waltz will be heavily favored to win reelection in a district he won by 13 points in 2018 during a blue wave year. He defeated a well-funded Nancy Soderberg, but Curtis believes it can be done.
“Waltz might not be that tough. He’s been pretty much worthless,” Curtis told the Daytona Beach News-Journal. “I know in the (House) minority, you don’t get to do too much, but shouldn’t you be trying?”
He said he is counting on a huge turnout to sweep Trump from office. Trump won the district by 17 points in 2016.
The Curtis campaign got off to an interesting start in September when he was issued a gag order preventing him from rolling out a “rip-off” that defined his campaign strategy. Curtis may have felt he was under another gag order when first informed that he had won his race against Thripp.
“Good. Yea,” he said.
Posey moves on
In the last two election cycles, some entrenched Democrats have fallen to sharply progressive primary opponents, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez starting the surge in 2018. Earth-shattering primary upsets have not hit Republicans, but more than a few were watching the primary for Florida’s 8th Congressional District between Rep. Bill Posey of Rockledge and retired Air Force Col. Scott Caine.
Caine presented Posey with his greatest challenge since winning the seat 12 years ago. Despite the quality of the candidate, district Republicans stuck with who they knew and rewarded Posey with a 24-point victory.
“I’m grateful to my supporters and thankful for the confidence the voters have placed in me,” Posey said from a campaign victory celebration at the Holiday Inn Melbourne-Viera Conference Center in Viera. “I’m honored again to be the nominee for the 8th Congressional District.”
Cain campaigned hard on the theme it was time for a change and said Posey did not support Trump well enough. What may have ultimately sealed Cain’s fate was a tweet from Trump endorsing Posey the day after Cain entered the race.
Posey will be heavily favored over Democrat Jim Kennedy, a Merritt Island engineer, in November. He won reelection by 20 points in 2018.
Crist vs. Luna
Another close Republican primary came in Florida’s 13th Congressional District when Luna surged to victory over the GOP establishment-backed candidacy of Amanda Makki and 2018 nominee George Buck. Luna was about 5,000 votes better than Makki and had 6,000 more than Buck.
According to a poll taken six weeks before the election Luna was in third place and trailed Makki by more than two-to-one. She surged in fundraising and while Makki had the backing of Republican leadership, Luna won the endorsement of Gaetz and Donald Trump, Jr. weighed in.
“Pinellas Republicans affirmed what they told me on the campaign trail: they are ready for patriotic public servants and are done with career politicians and insiders,” Luna said. “I look forward to unifying the Republican Party and sharing our message of people before party, and country before politics with all voters in Pinellas. I am running to represent all people in Congress and give them the voice they deserve.”
Paulina is a native of Southern California and spent five years on active duty in the U.S. Air Force, eventually moving to St. Petersburg with her husband now stationed at MacDill Air Force Base. Crist says his nearly lifelong residence in St. Petersburg makes him the only one who knows the people and the needs of the district.
In a statement from his campaign, Crist said “Voters of Pinellas County need and deserve someone in Washington who deeply understands the district on a personal level — and nobody knows Pinellas County better than Charlie Crist.”
The major elections handicappers list the race as “Likely Democratic.”
Rally for USPS
Within the context of a presidential election, a stalled coronavirus relief bill and the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) losing billions annually for more than a decade, House Democrats have seized on recent cost-cutting changes instituted by DeJoy. Democrats are calling for a financial infusion to prop up the USPS.
Crist and Tampa Democrat Kathy Castor, along with 20 current and retired postal workers are calling for funding to keep the USPS afloat. The group rallied outside St. Petersburg’s historic outdoor post office earlier this week promoting the Delivering for America Act which would provide $25 billion in emergency funding to the USPS as part of the House-approved HEROES Act.
“Millions of seniors, disabled veterans and Americans self-isolating as a result of COVID-19 depend on the USPS for delivery of food, medication and other essentials,” Crist said. “It is more crucial than ever that we fully fund and protect the work of the U.S. Postal Service.”
The event was one of several coordinated by Democrats, who also used Florida’s primary election as the backdrop for their push. The reforms directed by DeJoy have elicited outrage over concern the mail will be delayed ahead of the November general election, ultimately affecting the outcome.
DeJoy will appear before the House oversight committee next week to explain his moves. He has already suspended the proposed changes until after the election.
Castor believes the removal of some sorting machines and mailboxes while discontinuing overtime is a “scheme” by DeJoy and Trump to cause doubt about the effectiveness and security of voting by mail.
“And when (Trump) does that, he undermines our democracy,” Castor said. “It strikes right at the heart of who we are as Americans. And I’m afraid, if this continues, that he will successfully disenfranchise many Americans.”
The legislation would also prohibit the removal of boxes and sorting machines while ensuring mail ballots have first-class stamps. Both Crist and Castor are co-sponsors of the legislation, joined by most of the delegation’s Democratic members.
Castor has a message for the president that has since been turned into a Democratic politician rallying cry and a Twitter hashtag.
“We have a message for President Trump: Don’t mess with the USPS,” said Castor, referencing the hashtag movement coined by Democrats.
Women’s suffrage celebrated
This week marked the 100th anniversary of the passage of the 19th Amendment which enshrined women’s right to vote into the U.S. Constitution. While women and men celebrated the anniversary, Orlando Democrat Val Demings joined the celebration while also noting not all women gained that right on that August day 100 years ago.
In an op-ed for Good Morning America, Demings reminded readers the 19th amendment only included white women, thereby excluding women of color. It wasn’t until 45 years later, with the passage of the Voting Rights Act, that those women were protected by outlawing literacy tests among other discriminatory policies that denied people of color the right to vote.
“In suffrage movements, Black women often found themselves advocating solely for the rights of white women,” she wrote. “In racial justice organizations, they found themselves advocating solely for Black men.”
“In neither were they the priority and in both, they were the first to be dropped or ignored in the face of headwinds,” she continued. “Black women learned early on, from lived experience, that a true fight for freedom had to mean freedom for everyone.”
Demings believes change is necessary, and the way to get it is for women of color to advocate freedom for everyone, not just themselves, otherwise it is not a true fight for freedom. She also notes that the suffragette movement was “strengthened enormously” when it became intersectional and “weakened deeply” when it did not.
“The voices of Black women and all others, must be at the table, even if that means building a new table.”
Change is coming
Rep. Ross Spano knew he had a fight on his hands to keep his Florida’s 15th Congressional District away from the strong challenge by Lakeland City Commissioner Scott Franklin. In the end, Franklin pulled off what was considered an upset by defeating the first-term Republican from Dover by about 1,500 votes.
Both men won their home counties, but Franklin’s margin in Polk County was greater than Spano’s in Hillsborough County, which made the difference. Spano’s legal troubles and Franklin’s key endorsements from Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd and Gaetz likely helped. Spano had the support of Rubio and several delegation Republicans.
“Politically, ideologically we’re pretty close on the issues, but with the ethics and the investigations hanging over him it just really made the seat vulnerable and that was my concern,” Franklin told The Associated Press. “This has been a conservative, strong conservative seat, for decades and I was fearful of that seat being flipped in November.”
Three Democrats were seeking the chance to flip the seat. While the race was not as close as the Republican contest, Cohn, an investigative journalist, was the winner by about 4,000 votes over state Rep. Adam Hattersley and about 8,000 votes over Marine veteran Jesse Philippi.
Similar to the Republican race, Cohn’s margin of victory came from a strong showing in Polk County. It will be Cohn’s second run at winning the seat in Congress, after losing to former Republican Rep. Dennis Ross by 44,000 votes in 2014.
Spano defeated Democrat Kristen Carlson by a rather narrow 53-47 percent margin in 2018. The major election handicappers all had the race as “Leans Republican” with Spano on the ballot.
Hearing requested
Just weeks after Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan helped pass legislation designed to improve military training procedures, the Longboat Key Republican is seeking public hearings to shed light on recent deadly accidents. Buchanan referred to the recent tragedy at Camp Pendleton in California where nine Marines lost their lives in a tragic accident.
He also included an accident that claimed the life of his constituent, Army Spec. Nicholas Panipinto, who was killed in South Korea. That event led Buchanan to work to insert language in the recent defense funding bill to reform training and emergency response procedures.
In a letter to the leadership of the House Armed Services Committee, Buchanan asked for the hearings to also look at new ways to save lives.
“The loss of a single American soldier is tragic and the continued loss of service members in training accidents is completely unacceptable,” he wrote. “The recent deadly accident in California is the third accident involving an amphibious assault vehicle at Camp Pendleton in the past decade … Accidents like this one and the one that took the life of Specialist Panipinto cannot be tolerated.
“We need to get to the bottom of these tragic accidents and enact reforms that will save lives going forward.”
Buchanan pointed to a report by the Congressional Research Service that said between 2006 and 2018 a staggering 32% of active-duty military deaths were the result of training accidents. During that same time period, only 16% of service members were killed in action. In 2017 alone, nearly four times as many service members died in training accidents than were killed in action.
“The highest tribute that can be paid to the soldiers lost in training accidents is to enact reforms that ensure that these mistakes never happen again,” the letter reads. “We cannot afford to wait any longer and risk the health and safety of our men and women in uniform.”
Donalds survives opponents, tricks
The polls pointed to a close race on the Republican side to fill Florida’s 19th Congressional District seat of retiring GOP Rep. Francis Rooney of Naples. Election Day was full of drama, inflamed by a dirty trick, but in the end, state Rep. Byron Donalds, with the help of a flood of late outside spending, topped three other strong candidates to win the Republican nomination.
Donalds earned 22.6% of the vote spread around nine candidates. sate House Majority Leader Dane Eagle was second by less than 1%, while business owner Casey Askar and Dr. William Figlesthaler were close behind. Donalds went from high anxiety to euphoria within a matter of hours.
On Tuesday morning. a text purporting to be from Donalds went out claiming he was dropping out of the race. The text contained a screenshot of a video of him apparently doing so. Donalds blamed the Askar campaign.
All of that was not forgotten 12 hours later, but Donalds had the last laugh. He will face Dr. Cindy Banyai, founder of Banyai Evaluation and Consulting, in November.
Donalds enters the race as a heavy favorite.
Huge transportation grant
Multiple congressional districts in Florida have received transportation grants in the months since Congress approved hundreds of billions of dollars to provide relief to individuals and funds for infrastructure projects, especially public transportation. This week, Hialeah Republican Mario Diaz-Balart announced a large grant to go toward completing a public transportation project in South Florida.
The U.S. Department of Transportation has awarded $99.9 million to be used for the South Corridor Rapid Transit Project that is included in Miami-Dade County’s SMART Plan. Diaz-Balart, the ranking member on the House subcommittee overseeing transportation, was enthused about the grant.
“I am thrilled that Miami-Dade County will be receiving $99.9 million in federal funds for the development of the South Corridor Rapid Transit Project,” he said in a news release. “I have repeatedly stated that I am eager and in a position to secure federal dollars to address local infrastructure challenges. With this allocation, Miami-Dade County will now be able to move forward with the SMART Plan.”
The SMART plan is a 20-mile bus rapid transit line to be constructed along the existing South Dade busway. The project reportedly will not only improve safety and efficiency and alleviate traffic, but it is projected to generate approximately 3,900 jobs.
On this day
August 21, 2004 — A man who served in the Navy with Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry is backing Kerry’s version of events involving himself and crew members from his Navy swift boat during the Vietnam War. William Rood, an editor with the Chicago Tribune, contradicted claims by members of the political group known as Swiftboat Veterans for Truth about an incident where Kerry pursued a gunman.
Kerry has been the subject of multiple political attacks by the group, prompting his campaign to demand President George W. Bush repudiate them for claiming Kerry lied about his service to receive medals. The Bush campaign said they are playing no role in what the veterans’ group says or does and spokesman Steve Schmidt says Bush describes Kerry’s service as “noble service.”
August 21, 2010 — Just three days before the primary, Rep. Kendrick Meek is leading business owner Jeff Greene for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. Meek holds a 42-30 percent advantage with 23% remaining undecided.
The Republican race for Governor shows Attorney General and former Congressman Bill McCollum leading health care executive Rick Scott by nine points. Scott has infused $38.9 million of his own money into the campaign. The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research.
